NFL Draft 2012: Beware the “Fast Rising” QB. Historically, Many of Them Have Been Busts
Ryan Tannehill is this year’s quarterback buzz creator as we approach the NFL draft. He has risen from being a potential first round pick to now being talked about as high as #4, and that is just fine with his agent Todd McShay. In the spirit of Friday Flashbacks, I thought I would take a look back at other buzz-worthy quarterbacks who were selected in the first round, by running a search of the terms “quarterback,” “draft” and “rising falling” within 15 words of each other in a April article since 1990.
[Note: I limited it to first round quarterbacks, but the gem of the search was an article talking about "fast rising" Mike McMahon and how he said he was better than Michael Vick or Drew Brees prior to the 2001 draft. Confidence is good, but we often forget that many failed quarterbacks exhibited confidence in their own abilities.]
The first reference takes us back to a time when Leigh Steinberg ruled the draft at quarterback, and the run-n-shoot was rocking in Houston.
Whether or not their timing was off in regard to turning pro, Klingler and Maddox stand out as the best of the quarterback crop, and that’s a precious commodity in the NFL. Naturally, Steinberg wants to see his clients selected as high as possible, but his optimism about their rising draft stock is well-founded. “There aren’t a lot of quarterbacks coming out of the college ranks at a high level,” Steinberg said. “The question a team that needs a quarterback has to face is where to find him.”
[April 17, 1992, Greg Logan, Newsday, "A big word that doesn't have Klingler, Maddox regretting pro decision"]
After the shock of a Klingler/Maddox double combo, the term was not dusted off in April until Akili Smith came along and defined rocketing up draft boards late in the process, and the Bengals took their next franchise passer.
Cleveland will use the first pick to draft Kentucky quarterback Tim Couch or rapidly rising Oregon quarterback Akili Smith.
[April 6, 1999, Observer News Services, Charlotte Observer, "QUARTERBACK CAROUSEL LEADS TO DRAFT CHAOS"]
A few years later, it was a strong-armed quarterback from Tulane who received the “fast-rising” tag in April, and Steve Spurrier found the quarterback who would lead him to NFL glory.
While Carr and Harrington are the only definite first-round quarterbacks in this year’s draft, Tulane’s fast-rising Patrick Ramsey could jump into the top 30. Ramsey played well in the postseason and at the combine.
[April 15, 2002, Kevin Mannix, The Boston Herald, "Carr, Harrington at Head of Class"]
However, no quarterback with the possible exception of Akili Smith defined combine and pro day rising star like Kyle Boller of California, who had arm strength that made the scouts drool.
KYLE BOLLER — In one year, this quarterback has gone from a college flop to one of the fastest-rising players in the draft.
During his first three seasons at Cal, the former prep star was as shaky as the team around him. Things turned around when Jeff Tedford, who had molded Joey Harrington at Oregon, took over as head coach and took Boller under his wing.
Boller and the Golden Bears responded beautifully, and the 6-3, 235-pound QB has continued his ascent on scouting lists since the season ended.
Football men marvel at Boller’s great arm, surprising speed and athleticism.
He’s a sure first-rounder now.
[April 26, 2003, Joe Klein, San Diego Union-Tribune, "Some players can carry baggage"]
The next time it came up in an article was in reference to Philip Rivers, so I include it because it fit the terms. Rivers was a four year starter who was long considered a first round pick, though, so his rise was just to #4 to surpass Big Ben. I also include it, though, because it is full of so much fun. I mean, has that headline been used in a draft article every year and just recycled? Also, Browns fans, you’ll be happy to know that you didn’t need a starting quarterback when Roethlisberger was available, because you had Jeff Garcia.
Gallery, Taylor and Winslow are gone, that could mean Roethlisberger might not be, especially because North Carolina State’s Phillip Rivers apparently is rising up draft boards. After signing Jeff Garcia in March, the Browns don’t need a starting quarterback. But Roethlisberger might be too enticing to turn down.
[April 17, 2004, Columbus Dispatch "BROWNS HAVE HOLES TO FILL IN DRAFT, BUT WHO'LL BE AVAILABLE?"]
If you are Washington, and you have a chance to replace one rising draft star with another, you have to do it. It’s especially awesome when you go for a rising star one spot after someone else falls way down in the draft because they had the stench of Tedford upon them.
Both picks worked out pretty much as Washington hoped, if the pre-draft chatter of club officials was any indication. Rogers best filled the Redskins’ desired blend of size and speed among the draft’s top three corners, while fast-rising Campbell gave coach Joe Gibbs insurance at the “quarterback of the future” spot.
Patrick Ramsey, of course, already was the quarterback of the future – and the present. But Gibbs yesterday reiterated his strong support of Ramsey in the near term and explained that counting on one passer doesn’t preclude stockpiling talent at the position.[April 24, 2005, Jody Foldesy, Washington Times, "Staying Put"]
The next year, Jay Cutler truly does qualify as the best success for the riser crowd, getting into the discussion with Young and Leinart as April approached, when it was previously considered that those two were out in front. Reese’s quote is sweet, because if you have a chance to combine Leinart’s brains and Young’s athleticism, you would truly have something special. Cutler has been able to stick around despite being their love child.
“Big” is the adjective that makes Jay Cutler the quarterback with the fastest-rising stock in the NFL draft.
Big as in 6-3, 226 pounds. A big arm that was unaffected by brutal weather at his pro day workout for NFL scouts March17. A big, competitive heart that didn’t waver in four seasons as a starter for a Vanderbilt team that often was physically outmatched in the Southeastern Conference.
But for teams that aren’t drafting high enough to land either of the most touted quarterbacks in this draft — Southern California’s Matt Leinart and Texas’ Vince Young — there’s a subtler appeal about Cutler.
“I call him the happy medium,” Tennessee Titans general manager Floyd Reese says. “He has Matt’s brains, arms and accuracy, and he has Young’s mobility and size.”
[April 19, 2006, Tom Weir, USA Today, "Fast-rising Cutler aims to be cut above; Quarterback says playing at Vanderbilt gives him an arm up in NFL draft"]
Well, that probably isn’t right about Cutler being the best, not when the best quarterback currently in the league was a rising star the next season.
Flacco appeared at a quasi-roast for Favre on Friday. One day later, the spotlight was to shift to the NFL draft, and neither the former Green Bay quarterback or the Seattle signal-caller would be a topic.
But Flacco was expected to be. He is the rising QB in this year’s crop, a Division I-AA product from Delaware with a bazooka arm, a calm presence and a ton of leadership.
[April 26, 2008, Barry Wilner, Associated Press "Delaware's Joe Flacco is rising QB in 2008 draft"]
Remember a long time ago when Mike Mayock had Mark Sanchez over Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman? Freeman gets on this list, but not in as glowing terms, as he was merely rising on some boards.
This year, Mayock is staking his reputation on another quarterback from a big-time program, but not Matthew Stafford. While the strong-armed Georgia quarterback appears to be the consensus top prospect, and with Kansas State’s Josh Freeman rising on some draft boards, Mayock is convinced USC’s Mark Sanchez has the best upside among the three.
“Stafford and Freeman have huge arms,” Mayock said recently via conference call. “They’re both more athletic than people think for their size, and they both have tremendous upside.”
[April 19, 2009, Geoff Mosher, Courier Post "Mayock: Sanchez is Top QB"]
Finally, last year, when I interviewed Christian Ponder before the draft, I thought he was an early second round pick who might get into the first round based on demand. Instead, the Vikings stunned us by taking him 12th overall.
Like Boyd, Florida State junior EJ Manuel of Virginia Beach’s Bayside High is a dual-threat quarterback, except that at 6-foot-5 he’s four inches taller. He succeeds Christian Ponder, whose NFL draft stock reportedly is rising.
[April 22, 2011, David Teel, Daily Press, "757 Guys Impressive in Spring Practice"]
[photo via US Presswire]

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109 Responses to “NFL Draft 2012: Beware the “Fast Rising” QB. Historically, Many of Them Have Been Busts”
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April 13th, 2012 at 2:41 PM
Bravo.
/goes back to read the rest
April 13th, 2012 at 2:41 PM
Would’ve been had the Lions not drafted that sack of shit Joey Harrington.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:42 PM
God damnit, Lisk.
At least I have the Indians… wait… Aw shit.
/Sobs
April 13th, 2012 at 2:45 PM
Wally
Is Damon playing today?
April 13th, 2012 at 2:46 PM
Nobody’s perfect.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:46 PM
I had forgotten about that. Fun post Lisk.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:47 PM
BUSTS!
April 13th, 2012 at 2:49 PM
Same could be said for many professions, including “sports blog” writer.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:50 PM
I’ll read this as you simply confirming that we didn’t need Roethlisberger because we already had Jeff Garcia, thank you very much.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:50 PM
well done. very interesting to see how bad the “fast risers” have been over time.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:52 PM
Beward yourself.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:53 PM
Good read. I’ve felt all along that Tannehill needs to hold a clipboard for two years wherever he lands.
But it’s easier to draft QBs high in the first now because the financial obligation is so miniscule compared to what it was from 1995-2010.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:54 PM
Don’t worry…the EIC will catch it.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:55 PM
Going 1 for 2 isn’t so bad.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:55 PM
It is impressive, ma’am. But we’re looking for Hector Savage.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:58 PM
seeing Tannehill go up the board like this really takes me back to last year, and what exactly went on with Ryan Mallett, because Mallett is light years better than Tannehill.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:59 PM
It was cool in 2004, when all those QBs came out, and NY got Eli, SD got Rivers, Pittsburgh got Roethlisberger, and the Bills got JP Losman. Nobody you’d rather have under center in a close game like Jean Paul Losman. Field General.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:59 PM
Is there more “bust” potential in these fast risers than the QBs who were rated high to begin with? For as busty as Campbell was, wasn’t the Alex Smith pick worse when looking at their careers? Or even comparing Flacco and Ryan or Freeman and Sanchez. Seems like a lot of 1st round QBs are busts whether they are late risers or already ranked high.
Surprised the article that year wasn’t reserved for JP Losman.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:00 PM
Beward yourself.
Don’t worry…the EIC will catch it.
Don’t bet on it.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:01 PM
Confidence is good, but we often forget that many failed quarterbacks exhibited confidence in their own abilities
science….at some earlier point they weren;t busts, top dogs in HS and college
April 13th, 2012 at 3:02 PM
Beward yourself.
Don’t worry…the EIC will catch it.
Don’t bet on it.
Some things never change. I just kind of treat the copy-editing stuff as a quirk that brightens my day for some reason. No need getting mad over it.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:03 PM
Highly doubt it. He hasn’t been in anyone’s camp all spring. I think it takes him at least 10 days to get up to speed. And even then, it’s 38 year old speed.
The good news is that his arm is as good now as it will be at any point in the season.
/slaps forehead
April 13th, 2012 at 3:03 PM
Interesting post. Well done, Lisp.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:04 PM
Fun draft, I think it was when he got to about 18 that we were saying “Damn, if he falls to 24 you gotta take him, right?”…too bad the old bitch took the team making a smart pick personally
April 13th, 2012 at 3:05 PM
Jace doesn’t get why this is funny.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:05 PM
I need to crap and the water is still off in the building. It’s acceptable to just leave right?
April 13th, 2012 at 3:06 PM
Was JaMarcus Purpledrink not a fast-riser? I just remember him as a guy who couldn’t solidly get the starting job in college, who then was a #1 pick because he beat an azzclown QB from ND in a bowl game.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:06 PM
Ha! I flipped to that last night at that very scene.
“It’s a gift.”
April 13th, 2012 at 3:07 PM
The toilet’s still there, water has to come back sometime for someone to take care of it
April 13th, 2012 at 3:07 PM
I was thinking the same thing. He had a tremendous pro day and Al Davis fel in love with him.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:09 PM
In the interest of scientific process, were any fast-rising combine stars drafted who actually ended up having solid careers in the NFL? Anyone?
Conversely, I remember thinking how guys who go back to school get picked apart and provide good value, like Matt Leinert. Any evidence that potential high pick QBs who go back to school and end up dropping, still have good careers?
April 13th, 2012 at 3:10 PM
had you finished this with “drank” instead of “drink” it would have been a flawless victory.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:10 PM
It’s friday dude. Leave that sea pickle for a fellow co-worker. It’s funny.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:11 PM
He was a slightly above-average WR, so while he’s learning to play QB, he could play there. Or possibly pitch for the Cubs.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:11 PM
Upper deck it.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:11 PM
Go big or go home.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:12 PM
sea pickle
awesome. yet another hilarious name for doodoo.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:13 PM
But it’s easier to draft QBs high in the first now because the financial obligation is so miniscule compared to what it was from 1995-2010.
sure financially, but it’s still a high pick you don;t get back if you’re wrong
April 13th, 2012 at 3:14 PM
Was JaMarcus Purpledrink not a fast-riser? I just remember him as a guy who couldn’t solidly get the starting job in college, who then was a #1 pick because he beat an azzclown QB from ND in a bowl game.
He didn’t have a single article show up in April. There were a lot in December and January, but that is understandable as scouts are finishing watching game film.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:14 PM
Is anything more anticlimactic than watching gamecast at work, seeing bases loaded, no out, and then “in play, run(s) scored” comes up…
… and it’s a sac fly
/still, Sox lead
April 13th, 2012 at 3:14 PM
Aaron Rodgers was a fast falling QB that found success. Wasn’t he a Tedford guy?
re: Mallett – didn’t he somehow earn the classification of “knucklehead” by some? He reminds me of Ryan Leaf.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:15 PM
sure financially, but it’s still a high pick you don;t get back if you’re wrong
this. there is still opportunity cost and just making a riskier pick because it is cheaper leaves you missing out on someone else if it fails.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:15 PM
This is idiotic. The people who said it are idiotic. Belichick loves the dude, he was coach’s kid I think, loves football, and by most accounts he was a good leader at Arkansas.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:16 PM
Worked out pretty well for Ndamukong Suh. It works and fails in both instances. Not sure which rate is better, though: staying or going.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:17 PM
The upside of hitting on a franchise QB vs hitting a franchise player at another position is hard to pass on though.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:17 PM
Not really, dude. He was a cocky coke fiend in college who was a prick with the media. That sounds strikingly similar to one Ryan Leaf.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:17 PM
Mallett gets to spend four years learning under Brady/Belichick. I just can’t see him not being a top 15 QB (and would bet on top 5-10 at his peak) when his time comes, be it New England or anywhere else
April 13th, 2012 at 3:18 PM
At least Tedford has moved on to creating college busts so that he’s no longer littering the NFL with busts.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:18 PM
Don’t challenge my rhetoric. The Patriots are in great hands when Brady retires.
/lah lah lah
//fingers in ears
April 13th, 2012 at 3:21 PM
Jamarcus PurpleDrank would have still been a top 5 pick without the Raiders selecting him. He wasn’t a March/April riser.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:21 PM
This is a joke right? His peak is Andrew Walter.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:21 PM
jesusfuckingchrist cody ross
April 13th, 2012 at 3:22 PM
I’m going to try to defend this pick, since the Vikes had no other option at that point. There was no chance that Dalton would have made it to them in the 2nd round, and there were no trade options. They wee damned if they did, damned if the didn’t
April 13th, 2012 at 3:23 PM
I don’t think you can say that any more than I can say he’s gonna be a top 10 QB. He’s an unknown, but he has physical skills, and will have good coaching and time to mature. That goes a long way, doesn’t it?
April 13th, 2012 at 3:23 PM
McShay quoted in a Gabbert article with “Risen” in the headline.
Good times.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:24 PM
All of this. He was huge (not fat at the time) and everyone said his Pro Day was out of this world. He would have been a bust wherever he was chosen, but he wasn’t getting past the 5th pick that year.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:25 PM
There aren’t 15 good QBs in the NFL.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:25 PM
Mallett sitting behind Brady for 4-5 years SHOULD do wonders for his career in the NFL. Whether he replaces Brady or goes elsewhere, he’ll certainly be a better QB due to that exposure. He was (maybe still is) so damn immature coming out of college. He needed years on the bench to gain perspective.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:25 PM
Isn’t that part of being a fast-riser?
April 13th, 2012 at 3:26 PM
he wasn’t ever really a dick to the media, but the other two things, well, probably. I think he was always pretty cool with the media though. I’m thinking he banged McShay’s & Kiper’s daughters though.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:27 PM
Wasn’t Fatty Boomlatty locked in at the one spot after destroying ND’s defense?
April 13th, 2012 at 3:27 PM
easy on the koolaid.
i think mallet has potential, but right now that potential is a good preseason and a trade for draft picks to to get 1 more SB before the Brady/Belichick tandem ends.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:28 PM
Sometimes, but his pro-day was just confirming what scouts already liked about him.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:28 PM
He couldn’t beat out Brian Hoyer to make the active game day roster, right? That guy is going to be a top 15 QB?
April 13th, 2012 at 3:29 PM
Good point.
Tier One:
Brady
Peyton (if healthy, obviously)
Rodgers
Brees
Tier Two:
Eli
Big Rape
Rivers?
Tier Three:
Stafford
Cutler
Schuab (sp?)
Cam?
Tier Four:
Ryan
Flacco
Freeman
Dalton
Missing anyone?
April 13th, 2012 at 3:30 PM
You guys might be right on everything else. And easy on the Kool Aid is probably good advice, but Hoyer knew the system. I wouldn’t read much into that at all.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:31 PM
cocky coke fiend
scribbles furiously in ‘new commenter name’ waiting list
April 13th, 2012 at 3:32 PM
Just getting back here from Hooterville, am I misunderstanding this or did you call Klingler (a UH guy, no less) a fast riser?
April 13th, 2012 at 3:32 PM
Lucky 5 more are coming this year.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:33 PM
i was this’d by lisk
now who else wanna fuck wit hollywood court?
April 13th, 2012 at 3:33 PM
@Husker: Romo > all of Tier 4
April 13th, 2012 at 3:33 PM
Mallett got jobbed, there were more Google searches for ‘Mallett cocaine’ then there were for ‘Cam Newton laptops’ at the time. I looked into it because I could not understand how he dropped in the draft.
We’ll see what happens I think he will be great.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:34 PM
Dammit. I knew I’d forget someone. I’d put Romo in Tier 3 for sure.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:34 PM
Vick for sure. I’d put Palmer in the 4th tier. Also, what about the Jets QB? Tim Tebow won a playoff game last year.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:35 PM
*than
Booze time.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:35 PM
Damn, I forgot about Romo too.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:35 PM
Maybe even Tier Two, actually.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:35 PM
well, that’s the MO of the Pats, and just about any team. Had Bledsoe not been hurt, it would have been Bernie Kosar 2.0 in 2002 when Brady beat out Bledsoe and Bledsoe was cut.
But a Brady in 2014/2015 might still be better than QB’s that don’t have a complete grasp on the system.
There won’t be a Montana type change unless the backup QB’s know the system as well as or better than Brady.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:36 PM
Yeah. Vick is Tier 3 for me.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:36 PM
I’m just saying, top 15 QB isn’t all that of a lofty standard.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:36 PM
Well, 2 of them are on the Jets.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:36 PM
The upside of hitting on a franchise QB vs hitting a franchise player at another position is hard to pass on though.
no doubt. teams don’t mind paying through the roof if they are right
April 13th, 2012 at 3:37 PM
Tebow is no where near any of those tiers. I honestly think he’s terrible in a long term sense. Palmer is Tier 4. Totally forgot about him, Vick (3) and Romo (3, maybe 2).
April 13th, 2012 at 3:37 PM
Carson Palmer would like you to give him one more chance.
/puts on big sunglasses
//cries
///That’s my quarterback
April 13th, 2012 at 3:39 PM
Thick.
/NSFW
April 13th, 2012 at 3:39 PM
i would take romo over vick.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:39 PM
Consider his inclusion in my comment a dig at the Jets QB situation, not a legitimate request.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:39 PM
I’d take that.
/team lover of all kinds
April 13th, 2012 at 3:39 PM
So, never? Guy is one of the best of all time. More likely that his skills deteriorate to the point where knowledge of the system is less important than physical ability.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:40 PM
Thick.
/NSFW
bet she’s a great cook
April 13th, 2012 at 3:40 PM
///That’s my quarterback
You’ll pay for this!!!!
/guy who warned us about underrating Carson Palmer and said he’d be good for 4000+yds & 30+tds next year
April 13th, 2012 at 3:40 PM
I think USC QB’s can go into their own category of massive disappointment from undeserved hype.
Tier 9, or there abouts.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:41 PM
Definitely. Romo is top of tier three as I think about it. The talent is obviously there, but the fact that he can’t seem to have any playoff success has to count against him. They don’t even make the playoffs for the most part.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:41 PM
I feel for Palmer, though. Had he not had his knee obliterated, I think he would have been a top-5 QB for several years.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:43 PM
i would take romo over vick.
he’ll be busted for baby-fighting soon
April 13th, 2012 at 3:43 PM
Matt Cassel rapidly went from underrated to overrated. He needs a special category.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:44 PM
The only really massive disappointment QB out of USC’s new era is Matt Leinart. Sanchez kinda sucks but he wasn’t super-hyped coming in to the league. Palmer was really good for a little while there
April 13th, 2012 at 3:44 PM
i should have prefaced that by saying within the next 4 years that change won’t happen.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:47 PM
In that case, agreed.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:49 PM
You can’t even fictitiously snort yayo and be a football player.
/mid 90′s Irvin crawling over five naked strippers laying down breast to breast doing roller coaster lines
April 13th, 2012 at 3:58 PM
And none of that is his fault, but everyone seems to think he can also play pass defense, backup at LB, and block rushers.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:58 PM
Romo rides the border between Tiers 1 and 2.
April 13th, 2012 at 4:09 PM
Tier 1 – Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Peyton (if healthy), Eli
Tier 2 – Big Ben, Stafford, Rivers, Vick, Romo
Tier 3 – Schaub, Cutler, Cam,
Tier 4 – Freeman, Ryan
April 13th, 2012 at 4:36 PM
/Ctrl + v’d
April 13th, 2012 at 4:42 PM
Yeah…Peyton got teams with a worse defense to the Super Bowl or close to it several times.
April 13th, 2012 at 4:46 PM
He played in a weaker division, too.
April 13th, 2012 at 5:15 PM
you only have two tiers in your rankings?
April 13th, 2012 at 5:16 PM
Red Rifle is still criminally underrated, I see.
April 13th, 2012 at 5:24 PM
Vick isn’t accurate enough to be Tier 2, Mantis. And too inconsistent. Tier 3.