A Defense of the Joey Votto Contract Extension
The Reds signed Joey Votto to a 10-year $225 million contract extension, keeping him in Cincinnati through the 2023 season. The risk is great. The commitment is astronomical. The back end could end up being an albatross. This is a bitter pill, but the Reds probably had to swallow it. Votto would have hit free agency perfectly in 2014. Assuming an expected career progression, his value would have skyrocketed.
For the one percent, cash will be plentiful. The Yankees’ commitments drop from $207m in 2012 to $118m in 2013 to just $75m in 2014. The Red Sox also fall from $169m to $107m in 2013 and $94m in 2014. To that beloved duo we can add the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers new owners did not pay $2.1 billion for the club. They paid for the club and the right to create a regional network in 2014. That network could resemble YES for the Yankees, bringing in around $300m per year in revenue, just from subscriber fees. LA just needs a team good enough to generate the demand. With a middling farm system, better players must come from without. Their present $100m payroll drops to $42 million in 2014. Even accounting for a generous, longterm deal for Kershaw, the Dodgers still should be throwing around silly money. Their present $100 million commitment could double.
Money will be available, but to spend on only a few high quality players. The 2013 and 2014 free agent classes are lean. Look at the contracts Pujols and Fielder signed, with each other on the market and without the “big two” getting involved. Votto might have been the only impact bat in his prime to come available for two years. He would have gotten a deal at least as good as the one he signed, potentially better. The closer that reality became, the greater his leverage. The Giants faced a similar dilemma with Matt Cain. If the Reds wanted to keep Votto, they had to sign him to an incredibly generous contract and soon.
The right baseball move in a vacuum would have been to let Votto leave, or shop him in a slow hitting market next winter. It’s logical, but could the Reds really afford to do that? Their business goal must be to maximize the competitive potential of the current team (fire Dusty, you fools) and parlay playoff success plus star power into a better local television deal in 2016. The best way to do both is with Votto in a Reds uniform. The “face of the franchise” may not exist in competitive terms, but it does when you’re trying to make money.
Votto’s contract may be an unbearable burden over the second half of the deal, though I would agree with Dave Cameron that getting an undervalued Votto the next few years softens that blow. The Reds should, theoretically receive more payroll flexibility from a national television contract as well. The extension comes with some nasty repercussions, but if Cincinnati makes a few playoff appearances, enhances its revenue stream and sends a career Red to Cooperstown it will be worth it.
[Photo via Presswire]

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99 Responses to “A Defense of the Joey Votto Contract Extension”
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April 4th, 2012 at 3:57 PM
That’s good stuff there.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:02 PM
Not one Joe Mauer reference?
April 4th, 2012 at 4:04 PM
Tiexiera is signed through 2016, and Adrian Gonzalez signed through 2018 (?). Where do you put a first baseman, especially the with DH-by-committee trend going on. I don’t think any of those three players would be okay as a primary DH (and all are plus defenders).
Also, I don’t know about the Yankees, but the Red Sox “commitments” is clouded by Jon Lester and Buchholz both having club options that will need to be exercised before paying $25 million a year for a backup first baseman.
Also… “1 percent” of the teams in baseball is 0.3 teams.
/other than that, spot on, brother
April 4th, 2012 at 4:04 PM
I’m already sad to see Hosmer leave the Royals.
I didn’t realize Votto would be 29 this year too…..
April 4th, 2012 at 4:05 PM
I’d rather have Votto at his contract than Fielder at his.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:05 PM
In the post-steroid era, these are like junk bonds. I’d try to leach a few years of his free agency out of him and then still get some prospects before the wheels fall off.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:06 PM
But what about the parking lots?!?
April 4th, 2012 at 4:06 PM
Votto would have hit free agency perfectly in 2014. Assuming an expected career progression, his value would have skyrocketed.
Skyrocketed above one of the richest deals ever given? I believe most analysis shows that a player’s peak year is his age 27 season. This is Votto’s age 29 season. By the time he hit free agency (age 31), most of his peak performance would have been gone. Someone would have overpaid for him, but that doesn’t mean its a good idea. Especially for a team like the Reds, where he’s going to be 20-25% of the MLB payroll.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:06 PM
This is pretty cool, DuffyCould you do one of these for the Dodgers sell price? Or direct to it if you already did? I’ll challenge you on this, though:
LA just needs a team good enough to generate the demand
I think this is untrue. They just need to have ownership that the fans don’t actively hate. The Dodgers fanbase is probably the most consistent in the majors. Last year’s attendance drop was an anomaly
April 4th, 2012 at 4:07 PM
I really enjoyed this post. Nicely done.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:07 PM
lolled at this.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:08 PM
Right. I absolutely detest St. Louis, but they are better off without Pujols and that contract.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:09 PM
Duffy getting love from the commentariat? Holy shit.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:10 PM
My math sucks. This is his year 28 season. My point is still mostly accurate, but they are getting an additional year of his peak.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:11 PM
but if Cincinnati makes a few playoff appearances, enhances its revenue stream and sends a career Red to Cooperstown it will be worth it.
them brakes gots to get pumped
April 4th, 2012 at 4:12 PM
Absolutely.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:14 PM
I’ll mitigate my point about Gonzo/Tex though… supposedly it was going to be a depressed market for Fielder, and there was no problem getting money there. I just dont see how the Red Sox or Yankees are involved in that bidding, so I don’t see the relevance of their payrolls.
Imagine is Scott Boras used his powers for good???
April 4th, 2012 at 4:14 PM
My point is still mostly accurate, but they are getting an additional year of his peak.
The “face of the franchise” may not exist in competitive terms, but it does when you’re trying to make money.
To me, these are two key points. Gotta sell the product.
I thought Votto was beloved in the community. Given that, it’s a big pill to swallow, but what else could the Redlegs really do?
April 4th, 2012 at 4:15 PM
I believe most analysis shows that a player’s peak year is his age 27 season. This is Votto’s age 29 season. By the time he hit free agency (age 31), most of his peak performance would have been gone. Someone would have overpaid for him, but that doesn’t mean its a good idea. Especially for a team like the Reds, where he’s going to be 20-25% of the MLB payroll.
Exactly. I am not sure if thinking of cable ratings is the best way to manage your roster.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:15 PM
But what about the parking lots?!?
Is this sarcastic? Because $60-$100M/year seemed to me like something to fight/negotiate over
April 4th, 2012 at 4:16 PM
Jacoby Ellsbury has one more year of club control, then will be a free agent at 30, looking for a Carl Crawford contract. I wonder if the Sox will overpay out of loyalty/need, or let him go.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:17 PM
I think they could have given him a 10 yr deal worth $16m-$18m per OR given him a 6 year deal worth $22m per. But, instead they gave him the best of both worlds. 12 years (including the 2 left on his contract now) and $22.5m (after the next 2 years). AND included a no trade clause so that they can’t ditch the contract either…
This is long-term suicide for a mid-market team.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:17 PM
Scott Boras can die of gonorrhea and rot in hell.
/would you like a cookie, son?
April 4th, 2012 at 4:17 PM
I’d rather have Votto at his contract than Fielder at his.
i’d rather have hafner for 4 years at $57mm
April 4th, 2012 at 4:18 PM
Scott Boras can die of gonorrhea and rot in hell
you can die from gonorrhea?
April 4th, 2012 at 4:18 PM
Cameron’s article was well-reasoned, as always. 1b are so fungible, though, that I would prefer to obtain a cheaper, capable replacement when the time arises, and allocate the increased TV revenues elsewhere.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:18 PM
Woof.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:19 PM
Over/Under on games played by Pronk this year?
April 4th, 2012 at 4:21 PM
i’d rather have hafner for 4 years at $57mm
Woof.
ha. glad you saw my sarcasm.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:22 PM
Over/Under on games played by Pronk this year?
71
April 4th, 2012 at 4:23 PM
i haven’t read any analysis of the contract until this post, and i’m not cool enough to be an ESPN insider to read the link Duffy included, are people really saying this is such a bad deal?
April 4th, 2012 at 4:24 PM
It’s an over-market deal and it’s a long-ass contract but the Reds are banking on the big revenue increases in the next round of TV deals, that everybody in baseball has been expecting for the last year and a half, to mitigate this cost somewhat.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:24 PM
90
April 4th, 2012 at 4:25 PM
I’m pretty good with the sarcasm font around here.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:28 PM
Reasonable except I don’t accept the theory that Votto, even at MVP levels, is worth $30m to a team that has an $80m payroll (is it even $80m?). And there is no advanced statistic that will prove that correct either…
/Solid article tho, Ty
//Just disagree with the defense put forth
April 4th, 2012 at 4:28 PM
Your statement makes it seem like the buying group just forgot about the parking lots. Of course it came up during the negotiations; they elected to let McCourt keep the parking lots as part of the back and forth. If Duffy is right (?!?!?!) about the TV deal, then the buying group probably still ends up on the good side of the deal.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:28 PM
i think it’s been 3 years since i’ve even turned on a baseball game.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:29 PM
Will this make much of a difference? Some teams could afford to pay a team to take him, but not the Reds. “contracts” aren’t traded much in baseball, so if he’s an adequate or above 1B, they will just have to overpay him (rather than pay him to leave and pay another 1B to replace him). If he’s worse than that, they won’t find any takers anyway.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:29 PM
yeah right, have you seen MLB’s ratings???
/JMac’d
April 4th, 2012 at 4:29 PM
90 is probably a good bar… Sigh.
I’m guessing he gets about 120.
/Forever optimist
//Not this year
///Fearing the worst
April 4th, 2012 at 4:29 PM
middling farm system
since when is above average middling?
April 4th, 2012 at 4:32 PM
When it’s only slightly above average?
they are ranked 18th out of 30 there…. so below-average AND middling.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:34 PM
you can die from gonorrhea?
it can cause you other things, that will kill you. Like Howard Hughes went crazy. People thought it was some uncontrolled OCD or mania, but it was the thunderclap from all that Hollywood action he got.
/does not have the Clap
//listened to Jimmy Dugan
April 4th, 2012 at 4:34 PM
depends, if he puts up a similar year as last season they will probably overpay. hard to say if it’s worth it or not. couple years of great promise, awesome base stealing, one incredibly bad year and one awesomely good year makes it tough to say letting him go or signing him is the right call today.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:35 PM
Pronks going to get a lot of pinch hit, 1 at-bat appearances this year.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:35 PM
I’m sure the same column was written about the Vernon Wells deal… I just find it hard to believe that Joey Votto couldn’t be had for anything less than 10 years $225M. Its Joey Freaking Votto
April 4th, 2012 at 4:39 PM
Texas should have been added to the bidders. Their payroll commitments are such that they could have added his bat. He’d have been a better player there too. They wouldn’t have had to back load the contract.
C’est la vie. I look forward to the Reds being an afterthought in the latter stages of Votto’s career when the big numbers kick in monetarily and he’s no longer an elite cornerstone of a franchise.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:39 PM
I needed to print something to wipe my ass with. This article will do. Thanks.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:39 PM
So, uh, Johan Santana is healthy for the Mets and is going to actually start the season.
/got nothing else for my team
April 4th, 2012 at 4:40 PM
He’s an awesome athlete. He proved last year he wouldn’t sell one year of FA, so he’s got 2 years to stay healthy, and learn the strike zone. If he can be more selective, you can live with overpaying him a little bit. By most accounts, he’s gotten a bad rap with the injury thing and Youk calling him out. I’m sure I’ll change my tune in 2016 with a 35 y/o CF and LF combining to hit .240.
Still… OPENING DAY TOMORROW!!! And for the first time in a while, some young guys with serious potential coming up in the system.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:41 PM
Your statement makes it seem like the buying group just forgot about the parking lots.
It did? Because I said exactly the opposite of that. I have no idea what you are going after with the original “somebody please think of the parking lots” thing
April 4th, 2012 at 4:41 PM
I hope you have a good 6th starter.
Am I missing something? In what world will NY/Bos be bidding on Votto?
April 4th, 2012 at 4:41 PM
Here’s Texas’s payroll for this year and beyond FWIW.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:42 PM
This is no where near as bad as Ryan Howard’s deal
/really good post Duffy
April 4th, 2012 at 4:43 PM
Your DH is on the precipice of being a liability. If that car hasn’t already gone off the cliff, even.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:43 PM
May be I don’t know as much baseball as I thought I knew but I never considered Joey Votto an elite cornerstone of a franchise. See the Joe Mauer deal looks bad now but you can say “hey we had to do it, he was a can’t miss phenom” … Joey Votto’s greatness is a fairly new concept. I’m sure a good number of casual baseball fans couldn’t pick him out of a line-up with Mr. Met and Don King.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:44 PM
SC I agree Texas is a new superpower some dont just realize it. They are flush with cash.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:48 PM
Also, in regards to Texas, I’d much rather have Joey Votto than Josh Hamilton. That would have been the decision they would have had to make so as to not surpass the luxury tax threshold. At this point, I’d think Nolan Ryan would be just fine passing that threshold, keeping Hamilton, adding Votto and winning a World Series or two.
Then again, Texas really needs an ace of a starter. Hamels and Greinke look to be the only guys available after 2012 though.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:49 PM
i agree, the calling out wasn’t justified, but if he can show that one year with the injury issues was the exception then I think he’s good to go.
Boras must have been pissed last year wasn’t his contract year.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:50 PM
Derek Holland will be assuming that role thank you very much.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:51 PM
Jon Daniels is sure hoping so.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:51 PM
I do like the Derek Holland extension though. Thought it was very reasonable for a pitcher of his age and track record.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:51 PM
Either one of them would look great wearing a cap with the old english D.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:52 PM
yes, a DH that can hit .280 with 25+ HR and 90 RBI w/o injury concerns is the definition of being a liability.
at least you will always have Alfonso Soriano
April 4th, 2012 at 4:52 PM
Me too!
/fantasy baseball
April 4th, 2012 at 4:55 PM
I also am saying this as an owner of Derek Holland.
Hamels is going to be in Dodgers blue I’m pretty much convinced at this point. Unless Ruben opens up the Brinks truck by Monday and gives him $6/160
April 4th, 2012 at 4:55 PM
Ortiz will be gone by 2014. So? Doesn’t mean they are going to pay $25 mil a year to replace him. I think the highly-paid DH is going the way of steroids. Use it to give guys a break. Youk has basically said he’ll by in Cincy by then, but if not, he’ll play there to let Middlebrooks in. I just don’t see any way they pursue Votto.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:56 PM
Cars, or in this case, trucks with aftermarket parts that have 200,000 miles on them break down eventually.
You’ll always have his contributions to the teams of Red Sox past though.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:58 PM
I can see this happening. Those new owners are gonna start tossing money around. If that sale had been approved 3 months ago, Prince would’ve been a dodger.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:58 PM
Playing what position? He will be a 1B only by 2014 – or a severe liability at 3B. And it seems that 1B in Northern KY is tied up until 2023…
April 4th, 2012 at 4:59 PM
For Red Sox fans: It’s going to be an interesting couple transition years. They’ll have starters (Doubrant, Bard, Aceves, maybe even Ranaudo) ready, before spots open up (Beckett/Lackey). Most of AAA is AAAA depth, plus Wilson, but he’ll have to be a reliever because he can’t pass Lackey on the depth chart. Doubrant could be pushed out by next year no matter what he does, also.
Meanwhile, there are some hitters on the way, but most are 3 years away (Jacobs, Xander, Coyle, Cecchini) and the Sox would be stupid to overpay on a long-term contract, for a short-term problem. One of the reasons I like the Ross signing so much (and the Sweeney trade, despite the fact that apparently he isn’t very good at baseball).
April 4th, 2012 at 5:01 PM
He just said he wouldn’t mind finishing his career in Cincy, where he’s from and went to school. He’s also said he knows Middlebrooks is future at 3rd in Boston, and he’s only got a couple years on his contract. I’d actually like to see if he’d sign as a backup 3b/1b/dh in Boston, since the Cincy thing probably won’t happen.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:02 PM
Red Sox also have drafted a C last year (Swihart) that should be very good as well. Still is like 3-4 years away though.
Still, the Blue Jays have the best farm system hands down in the AL.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:03 PM
and that’s what counts, doesn’t it?
/1908
April 4th, 2012 at 5:03 PM
Not to mention all the young talent they already have in the bigs.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:05 PM
Blue Jays are going to flat out embarass some bad starting pitching this year. I might adopt them as my AL team to watch/follow.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:05 PM
He kinda won the MVP two seasons ago and was almost as good last year (within an error bar).
April 4th, 2012 at 5:07 PM
Yeah, but if it didn’t happen in Boston or NY, then it never happened.
/waning motion
April 4th, 2012 at 5:08 PM
Mellen thinks he’s too big to stick at C, but I don’t think you can talk about a guy being 3-4 years away who have never played pro ball yet. At least see them play/improve/advance before penciling them in. Even Xander/Jacobs you can’t count on until they handle the jump (A+ this year) and can hit (more, recognize) secondary stuff.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:09 PM
And can we stop saying a contract will be an albatross for the last 1-2-x years?
ALL multi-year (6+ year) become albatrosses in the last year or two.
You hopefully make your money back in the first 50-75% of the deal and live with the consequences.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:09 PM
i still think there’s a good chance the blue jays pitching is going to get embarrassed by some good hitting this year, too.
81-81 for the canadian birds
April 4th, 2012 at 5:10 PM
Didn’t he win the sabr triple crown? He’s really good. If you were going to say which first basemen you’d give a big contract to right now, what is the order?
Gonzo, Pujols, Tex, Fielder, Votto (anyone I missed?)
based on age, injury history, progression, etc… who would you give a 10/$225 mil contract to at gunpoint.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:11 PM
You know what?? In two hours there’s a game that fucking counts!!!!!!!!
/runs around with sparklers
//let’s go Hanley
April 4th, 2012 at 5:11 PM
/watches Watsonian fade away
April 4th, 2012 at 5:13 PM
Do other MLB teams have prospect sites? The soxprospects.com guys are really good… fair/positive/measured with all their rankings. They are also really responsive to suggestions and questions on twitter. One of the reasons I’ve gotten into follow the Sox prospects is because it is so easily available and thorough. Does Toronto have something like that so I can keep up with other teams?
April 4th, 2012 at 5:15 PM
Votto. Possibly Miggy.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:16 PM
I should change my name to Typo City
April 4th, 2012 at 5:17 PM
Miggy or Prince.
/total fucking homer
April 4th, 2012 at 5:17 PM
Eric Hosmer
/Lisk
April 4th, 2012 at 5:18 PM
Justin Upton, Eric Hosmer, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper. That’s it.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:20 PM
Thanks, but I really meant 1B, because now three 1B have gotten big $200+ million contracts.
That $154 for Adrian doesn’t seem so bad. Especially when you consider the first year was $9 mil, and if you ignore Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo both breaking out this year.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:21 PM
miggy. 1b and 3b eligible for my fantasy team, worth $225mm of a rich dude’s money just for that.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:23 PM
i think that’s a fair deal, he should be back completely from his shoulder issues this season and his power will rebound. I wouldn’t be surprised at a .290 40hr 120rbi season from him.
i’ve always been in the camp that you trade prospects for established. only in the rare case do those players you trade away become better than what you acquired.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:25 PM
Which nl team will be voting like a mfer to get dh in nl?
April 4th, 2012 at 5:26 PM
Brandon Belt
/homer of homers
April 4th, 2012 at 5:27 PM
This is true. I don’t think either one was enough of a sure thing to not trade away (though kelly was the top pitching prospect). I just like home-grown players, I like loyalty. I get nothing out of John lackey or Carl Crawford coming in and loving the Red Sox for the sole reason that John Henry’s check had the most zeroes on it.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:28 PM
Still only counts as one since it was in the PCL
April 4th, 2012 at 5:41 PM
Phillies, Reds, Cubs and the Rockies.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:43 PM
The Giants so they can play Belt, Huff and someone to play LF.