The Pittsburgh Pirates Think an Additional Wild Card Team Increased Their Playoff Chances
By 13%! That’s funny. According to the Tribune Review:
Team president Frank Coonelly had Dan Fox, the Pirates’ statistical guru, build a computer model to illustrate the impact: The Pirates’ chance of making the playoffs increased 13 percent.
A team that hasn’t topped .500 since 1992 is thinking playoffs? The goals in Pittsburgh should be much more modest: Get 75 wins and go from there. Last time the Pittsburgh “Contract The” Pirates won 75 games? Way back in 2003. [Tribune Review]
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86 Responses to “The Pittsburgh Pirates Think an Additional Wild Card Team Increased Their Playoff Chances”
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March 22nd, 2012 at 11:29 AM
Wouldn’t the additional spot increase their chances, though?
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:30 AM
Must. Not. Feed. Troll.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:30 AM
All Aboard the Crazy Train!!!!!
/still hopes the Buccos can do it.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:31 AM
mathematically, yes. realistically, no.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:32 AM
No reason that Pitt can’t be the NL’s version of the Devil Rays. Of course, that will require getting the right people in charge.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:33 AM
WHO GAVE YOU THIS NUMBER?
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:40 AM
Anyways…
Baseball! The other team in PA has to be the story of spring training. Utley’s knees are starting to cave big time. Howard did get the walking boot off but he’s likely not ready until late May at the earliest. Can the Phillies pitching keep the fish and Braves at bay until their offense gets back to full strength? Hell, can Rollins and Polanco stay healthy before that even happens?
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:40 AM
If only they’d teach basic math in Pittsburgh elementary schools…
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:40 AM
We’re only 6 days away from the season opener in Japan. Is Hernia doing his division by division predictions this year?
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:42 AM
Wonder if his friends say WHOOOOO NELLY when he walks into the bar.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:44 AM
I sure hope so.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:44 AM
Looking at their final record, it really is quite amazing that the Pirates were tied for first in the NL Central on July 16th last year.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:45 AM
So instead of there being a 1% chance that they make it to the playoffs, they now have a 1.13% chance?
I’ll buy that.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:46 AM
Tiger Woods hurt himself because someone was taking his picture?
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:46 AM
They won 72 last year coming off 52 the year before. You are such a condescending dickheads and a terrible sports fan.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:47 AM
Looking at their final record, it really is quite amazing that the Pirates were tied for first in the NL Central on July 16th last year.
There was a hot minute last year where the Bucs were an entertaining, competitive ball club. The teams in the Central are either diminished or not very good. With Bud’s “+1″ in effect this year, why not the Pirates?
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:47 AM
Excuse me, dickhead. But I doubt the guy who doesn’t know what fucking day of the week it is would catch my typo.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:47 AM
Challenge: Without Google, name the most current Pirates you can off the top of your head.
I’ve got 5.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:47 AM
They won 72 last year coming off 52 the year before. You are such a condescending dickheads and a terrible sports fan.
Let’s be honest, TBL is more of a fan of the stuff going on around sports and the coverage of those sports than he is a fan of the actual sports themselves.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:48 AM
I’m wondering what their computer models say? I guess he could mean that their playoff chances went from something like 0.8% to 0.9%, no?
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:48 AM
The Pirates own the Cubs. The routinely beat our asses(MORE than every other team). It is quite annoying. They always come up when it matters the most and they dismantle the Cubs.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:49 AM
We’re only 6 days away from the season opener in Japan. Is Hernia doing his division by division predictions this year?
Yes.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:49 AM
There was a hot minute last year where the Bucs were an entertaining, competitive ball club.
umpires in atlanta who had an early flight to catch the next morning put a swift end to that
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:49 AM
This post makes me feel like I’m listening to sports radio. I need to take a shower.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:49 AM
I would wager you’ve got the EIC beat by at least two. But then he doesn’t know who Martín Prado is.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:50 AM
Source: EVERY TEAM IN THE FUCKING WORLD thinks an additional wild card team increases their playoff chances.
This is the best shitty gossip blog ever!
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:50 AM
One of the big problems when dealing with percentages, and XKCD had a cartoon about it, writers using percentage without mentioning whether the 13% refers to going from 1% to 1.13% or from 1% to 14%.
When you nail the day of the week, you can mock statistical analysis.
This is absolutely correct.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:50 AM
Wouldn’t the additional spot increase their chances, though?
1 extra spot among 15 teams (well, after the Houston move) = 6.7% average increase per team.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:51 AM
Ritty, I got McCutcheon, Casey McGahee, Garrett Jones, Charlie Morton, Chase d’Arnaud, that Neil Walker guy at second and…Dave Cash, Jackie Hernandez, Rennie Stennett, Andy Van Slyke…and…
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:51 AM
McCutchen, that one guy, the other dude, the dude who is up and coming, the dude on the downside of his career.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:51 AM
That game in Atlanta really took a toll on the Buccos.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:52 AM
I’m disappointed I could only name 5. But I’m guessing he knows 1. “The black dude with the dreads.”
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:52 AM
I think the Pirates will at least be in the playoff hunt.
You figure the division winners are Arizona, Reds, Phillies
wild card teams are LA, StL
teams in the mix are Miami, Washington, Pitt, Atlanta.
you could get the second wild card in the NL winning 78 or 80 games.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:52 AM
Bears signed Michael Bush to a 4 year deal. Curious what that means for Forte…
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:52 AM
Absolutely concerned about the offense.
Less concerned with Howard than I am with Utley. Howard will be back and they’ll be fine at first until he comes back.
At this point, it’s what we don’t know about Utley’s condition that is most concerning.
On the other side of the ledger, I like getting a full season of Hunter Pence and I think John Mayberry Jr. breaks out this year a la Jayson Werth in 2008.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:53 AM
Bigger possibility – Pirates making the playoffs or SC having a meltdown when the Yankees end up having only 2 reliable starters?
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:53 AM
Thanks for the confirmation on the Hernia previews, Lisk.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:53 AM
Hasn’t he already been franchised?
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:54 AM
HOLY FUCK STOP WRITING BASEBALL JASON MCINTYRE
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:54 AM
Yes. Just curious what it means moving forward, extension etc.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:55 AM
TBL:baseball::infant:quantum mechanics
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:55 AM
Assuming he actually pays attention to baseball he should also know:
Burnett, but then he’s a horrible Yankee fan so he probably doesn’t know who that is.
McClouth, who he called a “rising young star” when he was traded to the Braves.
So yeah actually he probably doesn’t know any.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:55 AM
And what it means for Forte is that his career probably got 2 years added to it
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:55 AM
Give him credit for McCutchen and also Burnett. If O/U were 2.5 the under might not be a bad bet.
SROD left off Manny Sanguillen. Loved him growing up.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:55 AM
SC, to me Bush is a good add especially for those December games in Soldier Field when passes flutter & you gotta run the ball with power.
And, the Fightin’s troubles seem to not get a lot of airplay, but the right side of the infield being out? Wow. At least they have Mayberry to fill in at first. I like his swing, and hope he can keep up when pitchers get a better book on him.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:55 AM
*McLouth.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:56 AM
Most of this is based on fantasy than actual Pirates knowledge, but – McCutchen, Tabata, Alvarez, McGehee, Walker, Jones, Bedard, & Hanrahan.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:57 AM
Htown, heck yeah about Sanguillen. What a free-swinging, sitting-in-the-dirt backstop. I was a fan of his.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:58 AM
Holy shit, Erik Bedard is on the Pirates?
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:59 AM
Same thing it meant for McFadden in Oakland? With Forte’s build and running style I would be a little concerned about his health going forward as well.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:00 PM
One of the big problems when dealing with percentages, and XKCD had a cartoon about it, writers using percentage without mentioning whether the 13% refers to going from 1% to 1.13% or from 1% to 14%.
In this case, I suspect it has to be the latter. He probably modeled their chances of getting to various win totals with wins centered around, say 76 or 77 as the median. Then looked at historical results in NL on what would get the first wildcard, and now the second if it had been in existence.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:01 PM
LOL at pirates thinking casey mcgehee is worth a contract.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:01 PM
Yep. One year deal. Awesome low risk move. If he sucks, he sucks. If he has anything like his old self, he’s serviceable then they can fleece someone for him at the deadline.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:02 PM
Let’s Go Bucs! Two weeks from today is opening day vs. the Phils — I’ll be there.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:02 PM
I’d look at it like 4 of the 15 teams are already assured to be in the playoffs. So, that’s leaves a 1 in 11 chance for the remainder. I say 9%
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:04 PM
I’d look at it like 4 of the 15 teams are already assured to be in the playoffs. So, that’s leaves a 1 in 11 chance for the remainder. I say 9%
They aren’t assured, but yes, it increases the teams that have an average win expectancy near 80 more than those with an average expectancy of 94.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:04 PM
Exact same philosophy every fantasy manager uses him while picking him in the last round.
Agreed, I just saw the percentages and remembered the XKCD cartoon.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:04 PM
The coverage of the Buccos seems way heavier than other MLB teams on this blog. Only a handful of teams gets posts solely dedicated ot them — somehow the Bucs meet a criteria. Not that I am complaining, I love the Buccos.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:05 PM
Great read on the movie Slap Shot.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:05 PM
Who are your four? I assume the Phillies are one, but who else?
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:06 PM
Where’s Babar with the Strawberry quote:
“Some of these guys have got a bad attitude, Skip.”
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:06 PM
Going to try and be there too, not sure about work though. I think they’ve got a shot to win the 75-80 games that’s prob need for the additional WC spot.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:09 PM
I root for ‘em too.
I am enjoying these team previews. Pirates haven’t been covered yet.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:10 PM
OT: Watching the “Living on a Prayer” video on Classic Rock Fest. Dang, what a bunch of poodles. But, the rhythm section works on that track. Love the bass line.
/carry on
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:10 PM
I don’t think the postseason has been diluted quite THAT much.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:11 PM
I root for ‘em too.
Being from here and currently living in Pittsburgh — it’s easy to root for the Steelers and Pens, they are both succesfull every season. I’ve been in on the ground floor of the bucs since I’ve been around. I turn 27 in 2 weeks and I cannot remember them ever being good, yet I still follow them and watch daily. It will pay off one day.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:12 PM
I didn’t become a Pirates fan until 2008. I lost a bet and had to abandon the White Sox for the Pirates. In hindsight, one of the best bets I ever lost.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:13 PM
The Red Sox one is outstanding, and would make TBL’s head explode.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:14 PM
Pirates will still be in the 72-76 win range until they get all of their pitching studs developed. At least they gave McCutchen money, which was very smart. I’m curious to see if Starling Marte can be as good as he was in the spring games.
Oh, and I’m scared as shit of the Utley injury, to answer your question SC. Such a great player destroyed by knee injuries.
/goes off to cry into his Utley practice tee
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:14 PM
The coverage of the Buccos seems way heavier than other MLB teams on this blog. Only a handful of teams gets posts solely dedicated ot them — somehow the Bucs meet a criteria. Not that I am complaining, I love the Buccos.
I can say that I never got more hate mail than my post comparing last year’s Pirates to the 2003 Royals. I wrote it when the Pirates were still in first.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:14 PM
I didn’t become a Pirates fan until 2008. I lost a bet and had to abandon the White Sox for the Pirates. In hindsight, one of the best bets I ever lost.
Raise The Jolly Roger!
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:14 PM
I turn 27 in 2 weeks and I cannot remember them ever being good, yet I still follow them and watch daily. It will pay off one day.
Hang in there… it’s so worth it. I was the same way with the Brewers… they were Pirates bad for most of my existence… and even the year where they were half decent… I think it was …. ’92, when they finished 2nd in the division to Toronto… I don’t really remember because I was too young. After that it was a suck-fest until I was 23 years old. I’ll never forget being at the game where they clinched their first playoff appearance in 26 years. Incredible.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:16 PM
First rate stuff.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:17 PM
I’ve watched a lot of bad Phillies baseball in my life. My early years until 93, and then between 94 and 05. I’m just happy for the ride the past six years or so. It’s all going downhill soon for my team.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:17 PM
I am enjoying these team previews.
His comments on Brad Lidge were hilarious. “A separate bullpen”, indeed.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:19 PM
I’ll never forget being at the game where they clinched their first playoff appearance in 26 years. Incredible.
Almost forgot… thanks again for sucking Mets!
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:19 PM
Lisk — what was the general theme of the hate emails? I may or may not have sent one, I dont remember.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:20 PM
Your loss not being able to see Alex Rios run half-assed in the outfield
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:21 PM
it’s been dilluted enough where those teams are in the discussion now.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:22 PM
I lost a bet and had to abandon the White Sox for the Pirates. In hindsight, one of the best bets I ever lost.
sort of an unfortunate comment in the post where you call the author a terrible sports fan.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:26 PM
Eh. I was never a huge baseball fan, Chicago was just a byproduct of having been born there. I had been watching the Pirates every day at that point for two years anyway because I was living in their broadcast market and wanted to get back into the sport. Better than being a front running knob jockey.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:28 PM
Eh. I was never a huge baseball fan, Chicago was just a byproduct of having been born there. I had been watching the Pirates every day at that point for two years anyway because I was living in their broadcast market and wanted to get back into the sport. Better than being a front running knob jockey.
Oh I don’t care. I’m not hating…. just thought it was funny. Please forgive me for comparing your fandom to TBL’s.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:30 PM
Also for the record the bet was that I could eat nothing but peanuts for seven days.
Made it four and a half before I thought I was going to die. If I won I got fifty bucks, a full Burger King king costume, and was allowed to punch my roommate in the stomach while wearing the costume.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:39 PM
Wow, above .500 prediction for the White Sox, first one of those I’ve seen but it amazingly makes sense…interesting read
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:42 PM
while wearing the costume.
this sounds like the losing side
March 23rd, 2012 at 6:50 PM