Denver’s Super Bowl Odds Went from 75:1 to 10:1 by Adding Peyton Manning
After the Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, Las Vegas released odds for teams to win the 2013 Super Bowl. The Denver Broncos, who at the time didn’t have Peyton Manning on their radar, were listed as 75:1 at the MGM. (They were 70:1 in other spots and 50:1 elsewhere.)
Monday, after Peyton Manning told his agent to tell Mort that Denver was his choice, the odds for Denver rapidly dipped to 10:1. (In some places, an absurd 8:1.) At 10:1, that leaves only four teams with better odds:
Green Bay Packers (+600)
New England Patriots (+700)
San Francisco 49ers (+700)
New Orleans Saints (+800)
Defending champion New York Giants? Nope. The Baltimore Ravens, who were thisclose to getting to overtime in the AFC title game? Negative.
Just a guess here, but Vegas is going to clean up on this one. The unwashed masses can’t unload their money quick enough on the return of a Hall of Fame QB. He’s going to a team that went to the playoffs! They made the playoffs with a shitty QB, imagine what they’ll do with one of the best ever! The receivers aren’t that bad! The defense is really good! The AFC West sucks!
I’d sooner put my money on the Lions or Texans or Bears or the rebuilding Steelers or even the Eagles (and playoff fraud Andy Reid) before I dropped a dime on a soon-to-be 36-year-old QB who hasn’t played since losing a Jan. 2011 playoff game to the Jets, coming off a few neck procedures, going to a new team that plays a brutal schedule.
But that’s just me.
Previously: Peyton Manning: A Video Tribute of His Greatest Hits in Indianapolis
Previously: Peyton Manning Will Sign With The Arizona Cardinals According to NFL Insider Chad Lowe
Previously: Has Peyton Manning Looked at How Hard Denver’s Schedule is in 2012?
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March 20th, 2012 at 12:03 PM
I agree completely. Peyton is/was great….but really…who else do they have around him? I know…it doesn’t matter…blah, blah, blah…but seriously.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:04 PM
They shouldn’t even be 10-1 to win the AFC let alone the SB.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:04 PM
They’re more likely to win their division than the Giants, Steelers, etc. But Super Bowl? Nah.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:05 PM
If you’re morel likely to win your division, you’re more likely to make the playoffs. So it’s not surprising to see this.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:05 PM
Are we forgetting the fact that Peyton’s only won 1 Super Bowl in his career with a better supporting cast?
March 20th, 2012 at 12:06 PM
Betting any NFC team to win the SB right now is a fool’s bet. The NFC is loaded. You better be getting better than 6-1 for a flawed Packers team, that’s for sure.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:07 PM
I don’t think I would ever touch futures bets like this. Way too much random shit happens throughout the year.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:07 PM
Just a guess here, but Vegas is going to clean up on this one.
Well, to be fair to Vegas — they clean up on all futures bets.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:07 PM
Are we forgetting the fact that Peyton’s only won 1 Super Bowl in his career with a better supporting cast?
this. getting to the super bowl is A. Really Hard and B. Involves a lot of Luck
March 20th, 2012 at 12:08 PM
yea, but the pats, steelers and chargers are worse than they were in those years.
that said, these odds are a little silly.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:08 PM
Well, to be fair to Vegas — they clean up on all futures bets.
/This
March 20th, 2012 at 12:08 PM
100% agree. I’m not even sold on the Broncos winning their own division. More talent on KC and Oakland. And expect Rivers will have a bounce back year.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:08 PM
breaking news!!!
/sunday
March 20th, 2012 at 12:09 PM
I don’t think I would ever touch futures bets like this. Way too much random shit happens throughout the year.
Sums up gambling on all sports for me. Take a bow, St Bear.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:09 PM
is there a bronco fan here that describe what most broncos fans are saying about this move? are more than 10% mad that tebow is done?
March 20th, 2012 at 12:10 PM
Thats why a 9 win team that couldnt beat the Redskins won it last year.
Pack is pretty good, Saints are on the decline, 49ers still have no QB, no one else scares me at all.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:10 PM
This is just a fantastic post.
legit LOL at this.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:11 PM
legit LOL at this.
teachers pet!
March 20th, 2012 at 12:11 PM
They re-signed Jarrett Bush, all is well
Not forgotten, just ignored since this is a worthless talking point
March 20th, 2012 at 12:11 PM
10%? It was that high? Someone get Spencer on a plane to Denver immediately to see how good the weed there is.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:12 PM
We’re not forgetting it. But we’re also not morons.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:13 PM
Funny how much TBL hates Peyton Manning. I thought everyone liked that guy.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:13 PM
Are we forgetting the fact that Peyton’s only won 1 Super Bowl in his career with a better supporting cast?
We’re not forgetting it. But we’re also not morons.
I think this was more of a comment on how those odds are terrible more than it was a dumb RINGS! argument. At least that’s how I interpreted it.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:13 PM
Futures bets on champions are immensely difficult regardless — thinking of the last 5 champions (Giants, Steelers, Saints, Packers, Giants) you would be best served picking a bottom first-tier, high second-tier team. I could be wrong, but it seems like the last pre-season favorite to win the SB would be the Pats when they beat the Eagles.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:13 PM
Thats why a 9 win team that couldnt beat the Redskins won it last year.
The Giants had plenty of injuries and played a ridiculous schedule. Same as the Packers the year before. A ton of talent that hit their stride at the right time.
GB, NO, NY, Chi with a healthy Cutler, Det on the rise, Philly, Dallas, Atl even though I’m not a believer. Yea pretty loaded.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:14 PM
is there a bronco fan here that describe what most broncos fans are saying about this move? are more than 10% mad that tebow is done?
Not a fan, but I read the Post every day (no paywall!),
Most fans are ecstatic over getting Manning, but they catch themselves remembering what Tebow’s energy did to revive the fanbase and the team. They will always love Tebow.
They do acknowledge the signing is a clear upgrade at the position. No confusion there.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:14 PM
/kills self
March 20th, 2012 at 12:14 PM
They could be a #2 or #3 seed and Mile High can be a tough place to play.
/wonders where the team in green’s odds fell
March 20th, 2012 at 12:14 PM
Pack is pretty good, Saints are on the decline, 49ers still have no QB, no one else scares me at all.
bears
March 20th, 2012 at 12:14 PM
The New York Giants who finished 9-7 with two teams at 8-8 with decent talent behind them? The Baltimore Ravens who play in a division with three playoff teams last year? The Broncos play in a division that is so bad that Tim Tebow wasn’t able to cost them the division title.
But I’m not a degenerate gambler like you so I’m not that interested anyway.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:14 PM
Pennypacker – I don’t know the percentages, but there are way too many people here that can’t get over their Teboners. Their intensity is way beyond that of any sane sports fan. I suspect they’re a minority, but they’re clogging up the phone lines to sports talk as well as Twitter. And there is ZERO rationality – it’s all about the “unfairness” of it all. Funny, I don’t remember too many fans being upset when Plummer was canned after an AFC Championship game appearance or Quinn was promised a chance to compete, then Tebow was drafted.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:15 PM
Funny how much TBL hates Peyton Manning. I thought everyone liked that guy.
also, understandable, given how many clicks tebowmania must have given him. all that goes away now when he’s backing up david gerrard.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:15 PM
Yes the majority of Vegas bets are sucker bets this however is a spectacularly bad bet.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:15 PM
Agreed there’s no depth in the AFC so the top seeds always advance
March 20th, 2012 at 12:16 PM
Honestly, 10-1 is not a bad value for the Broncos. You gotta think they are going to make the playoffs, and as we’ve seen anything could happen once that starts and at this point — that’s all you could ask for. Needless to say, I’m sure people who wagered the Broncos at 75-1 are pretty happy right now.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:16 PM
And Lions. Defense should be much better and the running game will be a factor this year.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:17 PM
Feel the same way about the AFC. Steelers are aging, Pats have no defense, the Chargers are declining, and I don’t know if the Ravens can get over the hump.
The most complete team in the AFC is the Texans, and the potential to be Kubiak’d at any moment is worrisome.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:18 PM
I don’t think the futures market is the best way to determine the value of one player, especially in this particular case.
There’s no way to short Denver, so initially, Vegas has no incentive to make sure this is an efficient market. They can probably assume people will be fired up to bet on Manning at any odds.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:19 PM
So it’s a consensus then.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:19 PM
They can probably assume people will be fired up to bet on Manning at any odds.
This x18
March 20th, 2012 at 12:19 PM
Wow, wasn’t expecting to see this from TBL. But yeah, this.
Oh and I like the Chiefs too as a sexy super bowl pick. Good defense, lots of players coming back from injuries, top 12 pick.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:19 PM
Injuries, fluke upsets, and Joe Flacco made the AFC pitifully weak last year. NE was a complete fraud.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:20 PM
This is releveant- I had a dream last night that I saw Peyton and waved at him, gave him a thumbs up. But somehow he looked at me and knew I was a Pats fan, so he says to me, I thought you hated me? I said, no, Peyton, I love you. How fucking disturbed am I.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:20 PM
Raw review with video
March 20th, 2012 at 12:20 PM
Both of these. There is a VERY vocal minority screaming outrage over the unfairness of it. The vast majority, including myself, realize Tebow’s drastic limitations and if you can bring in Manning, you do it. Thanks for the effort and the win over the Steelers, but moving on.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:20 PM
Why is Chicago such a favorite with the addition of one pretty good receiver? Unless I missed something, have they beefed up their O-line? Bear Jew does not a line make. The NFC north is going to be very bloody and brutal.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:22 PM
If Manning played last season and had a human neck I would still think it’s high. HOF QB is a bit of a misnomer since he hasn’t played to that level in some time.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:22 PM
Haven’t you heard? The Lions signed Jacob Lacey. So, yeah.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:22 PM
Because they were playing pretty good ball last year before Cutler got hurt…give that team Atlanta’s playoff spot and I’m not sure the Giants get past their first game
March 20th, 2012 at 12:22 PM
Oh and I like the Chiefs too as a sexy super bowl pick. Good defense, lots of players coming back from injuries, top 12 pick.
You trust Cassel?
March 20th, 2012 at 12:22 PM
made the AFC pitifully weak last year.
Last year? The Mark Sanchez led Jets made the AFC title game the two prior years, its been weak a few years running.
/It was fun posting here for a few weeks, nice meeting you guys.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:22 PM
Probably because they looked like one of the more complete teams in the league until Cutler got hurt.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:22 PM
the running game will be a factor this year.
you saw leshore for how many carries?
March 20th, 2012 at 12:23 PM
/It was fun posting here for a few weeks, nice meeting you guys.
Wha? You leaving?
March 20th, 2012 at 12:23 PM
And Lions. Defense should be much better and the running game will be a factor this year.
If Stafford stays healthy and the team curtails their self-destructive penalty ways, they should be the kind of team no one wants to face.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:24 PM
I can’t math. So should I put the mortgage payment on the Texans going to the Super Bowl next year or not?
March 20th, 2012 at 12:24 PM
If Stafford stays healthy and the team curtails their self-destructive penalty ways, they should be the kind of team no one wants to face.
I doubt the lions go anywhere with that jackass head coach of theirs.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:24 PM
Wha? You leaving?
Shots at Sanchez equals banning no?
March 20th, 2012 at 12:24 PM
As a big Broncos fan, the odds shouldn’t be this low — tomfoolery of the highest order. They weren’t 8-8 last year, they were 5-11 and lucky as balls. If the luck evens out, Manning has to add three games to get to 8-8 and in another shitshow of an AFC West race.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:25 PM
Making a futures bet in March is like doing a fantasy draft now. You have no idea how these teams will look in August.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:25 PM
That is the only issue about that team. Had they signed Peyton, they would easily be a lock for AFC Championship Game.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:25 PM
Oh and I like the Chiefs too as a sexy super bowl pick
do the chiefs have nice tits? a great toilet? no? then they arent sexy.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:25 PM
Hard to hate on Peyton. Sure, I’m bitter that he picked Denver over the Niners, when it’s pretty clear who the better team is. I guess I just don’t see why he picked Denver.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:25 PM
You cant English, either.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:25 PM
So should I put the mortgage payment on the Texans going to the Super Bowl next year or not?
need more info, like, what’s your mortgage payment?
March 20th, 2012 at 12:26 PM
I don’t think it’s possible for someone to like players like Manning when they illogically support players like Tebow and Sanchez.
also, giving the broncos these odds reeks of desperation.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:26 PM
You cant English, either.
That was actually deliberate this time.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:26 PM
Graham James only got two years. Going to be a lot of pissed off Canadians today. Wow. Genuinely shocked.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:26 PM
need more info, like, what’s your mortgage payment?
Even with taxes and HOA, it’s really not that high.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:26 PM
More than a handful friend
March 20th, 2012 at 12:27 PM
His affinity for horseys
March 20th, 2012 at 12:27 PM
Wha? You leaving?
Shots at Sanchez equals banning no?
I should hope not. If that were the case, the only ones left here would be Mike Quade and Todd Charske.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:27 PM
lots of athletic trim in Denver.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:27 PM
Oh and I like the Chiefs too as a sexy super bowl pick
Crennel is their coach? Crennel and sexy cannot be used in the same sentence.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:29 PM
Shots at Sanchez equals banning no?
this place would be empty
March 20th, 2012 at 12:29 PM
he may not have liked Harbaugh’s plans for offense or offensive philosophy.
he just may spite tebow enough to take his job from him. i like this theory the best.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:30 PM
I’m not bitter but I agree with your point here. With two guys who want to win, no matter the ego, I think the Harbaugh-Manning schism may have been overblown. That, and he’s at altitude and now has to play late season home games and playoff games outdoors.
I think he’ll succeed in Denver. Just think he could have done more in San Francisco.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:30 PM
Not any more.
/High fives JHS
March 20th, 2012 at 12:30 PM
hi five srord
March 20th, 2012 at 12:30 PM
Obviously the source requires you to take this with a grain of salt, but Peter King tweeted that the Super-Bowl-or-bust mentality would have bothered Manning. Draw your own conclusions, obviously.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:31 PM
I guess I just don’t see why he picked Denver.
The buzz was that his and Harbaugh’s egos would have clashed. From a football standpoint, there is no earthly reason why the niners shouldn’t have been his pick. They’re about as complete of a team as you can get.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:32 PM
This actually happen? If so, great. We’re all better off without that one.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:32 PM
I think it was because Harbaugh wouldn’t let Peyton run his own offense, and John Fox probably will.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:32 PM
Why do you think this matters? He’s owned Mile High in his career, not sure how a neck injury is affected by that of all things
March 20th, 2012 at 12:32 PM
easier to add players in the future?
March 20th, 2012 at 12:32 PM
/High fives JHS
JHS = the Enforcer. Somebody’s gotta lay down the law ’round here.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:32 PM
Oh, he showed up again with a different name and the same wonderful typing last night and this morning.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:33 PM
Paolo/Todd Charske commenting war.
this needs to happen.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:34 PM
Yo wipe that shit off your nose bro.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:34 PM
before Cutler went down, the Bears looked like a strong contender in the NFC. they have now added a top 12 WR who put up big #s with Cutler in Denver.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:34 PM
Nope. He called you out in the roundup. I think you hurt his feelings.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:35 PM
yeah, without the roaming banhammerist JHS our dear leader would be sticking his head in the oven all the time.
/rhetorical’d
March 20th, 2012 at 12:36 PM
And with his New England hate, you’d think he’d love the guy. Enemy of my enemy, and all that.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:37 PM
Rebuilding? Maybe they are reloading, but pretty much all their starters will be the same guys as last year, assuming nobody signs Wallace, which they won’t.
Regarding this bet, it’s a terrible value, but you have to like their chances at getting to the playoffs with such an easy division. and as the giants proved, once you are in the playoffs, teams are able to fluke their way to a championship, even they can’t beat the Redskins.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:38 PM
Paolo/Todd Charske commenting war.
this needs to happen.
/I’ll bring the chips and pico de gallo
March 20th, 2012 at 12:44 PM
And Lions
DET should just keep Javhid Best on the sideline until week 11 or so. I’d like their chances at that point.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:46 PM
I don’t need to take shots at Sanchez. the firm of Williams, Dareus, and Williams will take care of that twice this year.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:47 PM
So that Bubba Watson was pretty efficient off the tee yesterday, eh?
March 20th, 2012 at 12:47 PM
I don’t think it will be an easy division this year. KC was decimated by injuries. And Oakland had to adjust on the fly with Palmer. Whoever wins that division will have to do so with 10+ wins IMO.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:47 PM
Nope. He called you out in the roundup. I think you hurt his feelings.
He ran into the Roundup Saloon, took out his six-shooter and shot the ceiling 6 times. Then looked around, awkwardly.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:58 PM
Tebowites are a species unlike any I’ve never encountered before. There really are fans here that think Tebow’s performance last year outweighs everything Elway ever did. They truly think that Tebow won all the games on his own, but his performance had nothing to do w/losses. There is absolutely no reasoning whatsoever.
March 20th, 2012 at 12:58 PM
“ever” not “never”
March 20th, 2012 at 12:59 PM
I regret nothing, CJ.
March 20th, 2012 at 1:02 PM
Those aren’t Bronco or football fans. They are Tebow acolytes. Sadly, it has nothing to do with football. It’s all about Tebow the person, and his faith. It’s sad really because they are putting him up on a pedestal as an idol. Thankfully, they are in the minority and don’t represent the majority opinion of religious folks.
March 20th, 2012 at 1:05 PM
A.P. – you’re right, but they are hard to tolerate. They’d have you believe that Tebow is literally the only athlete anywhere that’s ever done anything good for anyone, which is offensive on so many levels. There are many athletes that actually contribute to the community without dragging a camera crew along each time. And honestly, whether or not they do has little if anything to do with their job anyway.
March 20th, 2012 at 1:08 PM
Volduck, I love Tim Tebow for his personal integrity but dislike his irrational fanbase. I would go on a rampage if I lived in Denver or down in Florida Gator country
March 20th, 2012 at 1:15 PM
Nope, that’s me as well.