What the Statistical Wizards at Harvard Think of the Washington Redskins Trade to Get Robert Griffin

All, NFL, NFL Draft, Stats Jason McIntyre March 10th. 2012, 12:55pm

“For the Redskins to get the equivalent value from RGIII as they spent acquiring him, he must produce at least as much as Tom Brady. If RGIII merely lives up to his eCAVOA, he’ll finish his career having slightly outperformed David Garrard (61 CAV). Because all-time-great quarterbacks are rare commodities, the Redskins likely lost value both on paper and in reality.”

No, I don’t understand the eCAVOA formula. I’m sure the title-starved Beltway crowd would settle for a Mark Rypien or Doug Williams career arc. [The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective]

Previously: Congratulations, Robert Griffin III, You’re About to be Drafted By an Idiotic Washington Organization
Previously: Redskins Trade Two No. 1 Picks to the Rams, Will Select Robert Griffin in the 2012 NFL Draft

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25 Responses to “What the Statistical Wizards at Harvard Think of the Washington Redskins Trade to Get Robert Griffin”

1
Clayton Cargill Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 1:06 PM
No, I don’t understand the eCAVOA formula.
or how to count to three, apparently
2
KingGrizz Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 1:06 PM
I love the saturday TBL action
3
RexKramerDangerSeeker Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 1:15 PM
Paging Mssrs Rusty and WWoS…
4
Curtis the Close talker Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 1:17 PM
I don’t think he needs to be Tom Brady. Just having a top 6-8 QB can lift a franchise in a way that statistics can’t measure. If he’s Randall Cunningham, it’s a good deal.
No post on teh Sanchize, TBL? I know we all love crapping on him but sounds like a smart move for the Jets. Extra 2.75M guaranteed for 3 extra years (I think). They had leverage and used it.
5
squawkbox Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 1:37 PM
If he’s Randall Cunningham, it’s a good deal.
I understand your point here and don’t necessarily disagree. My question is what impact will the loss of those draft picks have.
The new rookie cap makes it smart to sign RG3. But trading away those other picks seems like it hurts getting other guys around him.
The Skins just suck all around – there’s no way they have enough cap space to fill those holes with free agency even in the next 4 years.
6
Nada Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 1:43 PM
If he’s Randall Cunningham, it’s a good deal.
So Snyder’s giving up three No. 1s in exchange for never winning a Super Bowl? Because if RG turns out to be Randall, that’s what the Skins are doing.
7
Jay V Of Considerable Influence Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 1:47 PM
The Skins just suck all around – there’s no way they have enough cap space to fill those holes with free agency even in the next 4 years.
False. I might be inclined to agree with the other part of the statement, but they have some top-level defensive players, and they have a ton of cap room this year. They absolutely do NOT suck all around. They did beat the Super Bowl champs twice this year, after all.
8
José Ovechkin Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 1:51 PM
Because if RG turns out to be Randall, that’s what the Skins are doing.
If he turns out to be Dan Marino, then the same is true. Eli Manning just won his 2nd SuperBowl, teams aren’t built on quarterbacks alone.
9
scripty Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 1:56 PM
I think when you trade two first round picks for a QB you are expecting a Super Bowl appearance. Three? Three and two 2nd round picks, there better some magic. But that’s all from a fan’s perspective. The Daniel could be looking at this from a profit/loss perspective only.
10
Nada Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 2:09 PM
teams aren’t built on quarterbacks alone
True. But when you give up that many high picks for a QB, he’d better be Brady, not Cunningham, because you just gave up your chances to build up around that QB.
11
scripty Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 2:22 PM
Rory is -9 (for today’s round) through 13 holes. Even Tiger getting lose. Only a small # of people were over par today. Gonna be a shootout.
12
ou812jay8 Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 2:29 PM
Now it would be hilarious if RGIII pulls an Eli or Elway and says he’s not playing for the Skins.
/Skins would lose their ass on that trade off
//Giants fan here
13
Benjamin Franklin Rodriguez has the highest WAR evah! Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 2:45 PM
True. But when you give up that many high picks for a QB, he’d better be Brady, not Cunningham, because you just gave up your chances to build up around that QB.
so, if Anderson hits the field goal against the Falcons and go on and beat the Broncos in the Super Bowl, then it would be ok if Griffin turns out to be another Randall?
14
Nada Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 2:47 PM
Now it would be hilarious if RGIII pulls an Eli or Elway and says he’s not playing for the Skins.
Who would L’il Danny give the ax to in that scenario?
15
Nada Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 2:52 PM
so, if Anderson hits the field goal against the Falcons and go on and beat the Broncos in the Super Bowl, then it would be ok if Griffin turns out to be another Randall?
The question is, was Randall at his prime worth three No. 1s plus other picks? I don’t believe so, even if the Vikes had won in 1998. The Ravens and Bucs won Super Bowls with Dilfer and Somebody Johnson at QB, and I don’t think anyone would argue either of those guys were worth three No. 1s.
If you’re giving up that many draft picks, you’d better be getting multiple Super Bowls, and that QB had better be the major reason.
16
Eric T0upal aka BrawnyTom Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 3:00 PM
I can’t believe how much the Rams got for this pick. Essentially, Washington is trading Orapko, Trent Williams, Fred Davis and Kerrigan for potential.
No pressure RGIII. Also, they are saddling you with a crappy OC who is over his head and little chance for young talent for the net 2 years. Deck is already stacked against him.
17
Benjamin Franklin Rodriguez has the highest WAR evah! Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 3:23 PM
The question is, was Randall at his prime worth three No. 1s plus other picks? I don’t believe so, even if the Vikes had won in 1998. The Ravens and Bucs won Super Bowls with Dilfer and Somebody Johnson at QB, and I don’t think anyone would argue either of those guys were worth three No. 1s.
If you’re giving up that many draft picks, you’d better be getting multiple Super Bowls, and that QB had better be the major reason.
If it was easy to trade for Super Bowls, everyone would do it. The question is did Washington trade to make themselves competitive? Yes they did. Did they trade to make themselves more attractive to free agents? Yes they did. Are the players the Redskins could have potentially picked with the picks they traded better than RGIII? How can you possibly know the answer to that, which is what makes much of the argument against the trade baseless. In regards to Randall, his prime was the late 80′s, early 90′s on an Eagles squad with a dominant defense and a retarded outlook on offense. Their whole offensive philosophy was “Randall, go out there and make it happen”. Too many great teams to overcome back then for that to work. But in today’s NFL with the rules the way they are, if I have a Randall type of QB, and I surround him with some semblance of talent, I’d be in contention for a Super Bowl every year. So, if I have a hole at QB, and I have a chance to get that kind of QB, I’ll make that move with the outlook that not only will those picks in the coming years be late in each round, but great teams aren’t just built in the first and second round.
18
starkweather Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 3:41 PM
Darrell’s right. If you actually find a great QB in the NFL right now, that’s worth a hell of a lot more than it used to be and far and away more than any other position. The Redskins do need depth but they’ve got a lot more talent than people realize.
19
coop247 Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 3:56 PM
I’m sorry, there is no way to defend this, 3 first round picks and change is unbelievable. I’m not sure any player currently in the NFL is worth that bounty (probably only Rodgers), let alone someone who has yet to take a snap and absolutely has a healthy bust potential.
20
starkweather Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 4:07 PM
3 first round picks and change is unbelievable. I’m not sure any player currently in the NFL is worth that bounty
If he is a legitimately great QB then it is. If he’s not then the Redskins don’t know what a great QB looks like and they’re dead in the water anyway.
21
vezina Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 4:21 PM
Giving up picks is not on its face that bad…for a known quantity like a hot FA. You never know how those picks will turn out (jerry angelo type drafting skills and all). But for a rookie? This is ditka/ricky territory. Watch for snyder in a bridal gown
22
Jim Harbaugh Scramble Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 5:11 PM
Rams will fuck up the bounty.
23
Benjamin Franklin Rodriguez has the highest WAR evah! Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 5:14 PM
I’m sorry, there is no way to defend this, 3 first round picks and change is unbelievable. I’m not sure any player currently in the NFL is worth that bounty (probably only Rodgers), let alone someone who has yet to take a snap and absolutely has a healthy bust potential.
Its 2 first round picks and 1 second round.
24
Benjamin Franklin Rodriguez has the highest WAR evah! Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 5:15 PM
Giving up picks is not on its face that bad…for a known quantity like a hot FA. You never know how those picks will turn out (jerry angelo type drafting skills and all). But for a rookie? This is ditka/ricky territory. Watch for snyder in a bridal gown
Ditka gave up his whole draft. The Skins gave up one draft pick for the next 3 years. Its not even close to the same.
25
Clayton Cargill Says:
March 10th, 2012 at 5:30 PM
Ditka gave up his whole draft. The Skins gave up one draft pick for the next 3 years. Its not even close to the same.
2 first rounders and a second rounder is better than a pick in each of rounds 1 through 7.
Anyway, it seems like too much to me, and I am sad that I have to root against the guy. He seems great.