The Redskins gave up two future first round picks and this year’s second round pick to move up the four spots necessary to select Robert Griffin III. Earlier, I gave some thoughts while looking at the history of trades, the draft value chart, and actual value difference in the picks. I also mentioned then that teams have been willing to give up more for quarterbacks at the top of the draft, because of the perception and importance of the position, compared to other trades.
It is not true, though, that Robert Griffin III is the first that someone that could bring hope or was a “must” move to revive the franchise. Here’s what others have given up to trade to the top of the draft for a passer since the merger.
1970. Cleveland trades star wide receiver Paul Warfield straight up for the #3 pick, to select Mike Phipps. This was a steal for the Dolphins, by the way, because Warfield continued to be great while Phipps never really panned out. Is there anyway, though, that the Rams would have accepted Larry Fitzgerald straight up for the 2nd pick? That’s the equivalent.
1973. Baltimore trades defensive end Billy Newsome and the 86th pick for the 2nd overall to select Bert Jones. Newsome was a young defensive end who had started for three years, and must have been highly thought of at the time, though history wasn’t as kind. Baltimore won this trade, but certainly didn’t have to give up a haul for it.
1975. Atlanta trades the 3rd overall pick and star offensive tackle George Kunz for the 1st overall to select Steve Bartkowski. Kunz was about to turn 28, and had made 5 pro bowls in his first 6 seasons. He would go on to be selected to three more, including a first team all pro in his first season in Baltimore. This would be roughly equal to if Cleveland traded Joe Thomas, coming up on his free agent contract, and the 4th pick to get Robert Griffin III. Definitely a bigger haul than the first two.
1983. Denver trades 4th overall pick offensive tackle Chris Hinton, the next year’s first rounder, and backup QB Mark Hermann for the rights to John Elway. The trade for one of the game’s best and most touted prospects brought in one less future first and one less 2nd round pick than Robert Griffin III.
1985. Atlanta trades the 3rd overall pick and the 30th overall pick to move up to the 2nd overall pick, in the hopes of being able to draft Bernie Kosar. This is one of the funnest, craziest sagas in NFL draft history. You can read about it here. The gist is that Kosar had not originally declared for the draft, but then wanted to enter. There was controversy as to whether he would be part of the regular draft or a supplemental draft. Atlanta made a speculative trade here and gave up their 2nd rounder for the right to take him. Rozelle, though, ultimately ruled Kosar could go in the supplemental to Cleveland if he chose, and then Minnesota traded down to #4, while getting only a 3rd rounder in return (and taking Chris Doleman).
1985. Cleveland trades the 7th overall, the 63rd overall, and the next year’s 1st and 6th round picks to Buffalo for the rights to the first pick in the Supplemental Draft, to draft Bernie Kosar. Cleveland gave up one less future first and a third instead of a second to get in position to take Kosar, confident that the commissioner would rule Kosar could go to the supplemental draft, and he did.
1986. The Los Angeles Rams trade Kent Hill and the rights to William Fuller, along with two consecutive first round picks and a future fifth rounder, to Houston for #3 overall pick Jim Everett, who was holding out. This trade happened after the start of the season and thus had to involve draft picks from 1987 and 1988. The Rams had been a consistent playoff team for a decade, so the value of the firsts was not as high. Fuller, as best I can tell, had never played for the Rams and was part of the USFL dispersal draft. Hill was a good but aging offensive guard who would play two more years.
1990. The Indianapolis Colts trade Chris Hinton, 2nd year receiver Andre Rison, next year’s first rounder, and the #121 pick, for the #83 pick and the #1 overall pick to select Jeff George. Rison was the 22nd overall pick the previous year, and had a decent rookie year, he would break out in Atlanta. Hinton was a star veteran tackle who had made multiple pro bowls, and who Atlanta moved to right tackle. I doubt either was valued as a high (top 5) first rounder, but both could have been valued as mid-firsts. This is probably the biggest haul to trade up before RGIII, but comes up a pick, and probably a high pick, short, plus Indy got a third back also in the deal.
1998. The San Diego Chargers trade Eric Metcalf, Patrick Sapp, #3 overall, #33 overall, and 1999 first rounder for the #2 overall to select Ryan Leaf. Sapp was a young linebacker who would start a total of six games for Arizona, Metcalf was turning 30 and was probably the best punt returner in the game at the time, and they also gave up one future first, instead of two. I doubt the combination of Metcalf and Sapp was valued at a first round pick.
2001. The Atlanta Falcons trade Tim Dwight, #5 overall, #67 overall, and 2002 second rounder for the #1 overall to select Michael Vick. San Diego got Tomlinson, and got way less than what Washington just gave up to move up the same number of slots. A third instead of a second, and only one future second instead of two firsts. Tim Dwight was a decent return man and slot receiver at the time, but certainly not worth more than a second or third round pick.
2004. The New York Giants trade the #4 overall (Philip Rivers), #65 overall, 2005 first rounder, and 2005 fifth rounder, for the rights to #1 overall pick Eli Manning. The last big trade for a quarterback, and the only one in the era of really big contracts. Of course, it’s not like San Diego didn’t have to pay Rivers a fair amount on the other end of the ledger too. Compared to the RGIII deal, New York gave up a 3rd instead of a 2nd, and one future first (which became Shawne Merriman) instead of two.
The values did increase. The higher cost of top draft picks slowed down the trades, but most of these occurred prior to that escalation. The biggest haul before this was what San Diego gave up for the rights to Ryan Leaf at #2, or what the Colts gave up for Jeff George at #1. This current deal dwarfs those by at least one more first rounder. It also seems to me that the price paid has little to do with how the player turned out, though it did likely have to do with how desperate the franchise was to provide hope.
This is actually a new era of draft pick worth, too, and it’s early in that era. Plus the way the rules are now, a good QB is worth more. I think the Redskins might have been motivated by the relative success of Cam Newton last year in energizing the Panthers. If RGIII is anywhere near as good this year as Cam was last year then the immediate return is pretty good and they have a low cost starting QB for four years. It’s a valiant effort to compare across eras but I think we’re already in a completely different valuation period than when the Chargers and Giants made their big trade.
It’d almost made more sense for CLE to do this haul than WAS b/c they have 2 1sts and could have accelerated the negative impact of the loss of draft selections. I’m not so sure though.
I think it’s entirely possible for WAS to scuffle for the next 4-5 seasons with RG3 due to the loss of picks, and then maybe he can make the pick worth it. It’s like going way over budget to get in on a real estate deal, if you were uber confident on the property escalating in value. You’re just shitting your pants, facing bankrupty, for 4-5 years and then praying for some good fortune.
But I’ll defer to our resident real estate expert…
It’s a valiant effort to compare across eras but I think we’re already in a completely different valuation period than when the Chargers and Giants made their big trade.
The Chargers/Giants comparison doesn’t work because San Diego still ended up with a quarterback. They didn’t “trade up to get a QB” so much as “trade up to swap QBs”. Washington is paying a premium because there are no other QBs after Luck and Griffin. Not the case when the Chargers made their trade — they were still getting Rivers.
The Chargers/Giants comparison doesn’t work because San Diego still ended up with a quarterback. They didn’t “trade up to get a QB” so much as “trade up to swap QBs”.
well, actually, the Giants traded for Manning, not the pick, since the trade went down after he was already selected. Amazingly, that draft produced three really good quarterbacks in the top 3 chosen.
1973. Baltimore trades defensive end Billy Newsome and the 86th pick for the 2nd overall to select Bert Jones.
The Colts made the Aints their draft bitches both here and in 1967, when New Orleans gave up the first pick overall for Colts backup QB gary Cuozzo and the Colts got Bubba Smith. In 1973, the Aints ended up with Newsome and the Colts got Bert Jones. That’s what happend when your owner makes a former astronaut with no NFL experience your team’s GM.
This is actually a new era of draft pick worth, too, and it’s early in that era. Plus the way the rules are now, a good QB is worth more. I think the Redskins might have been motivated by the relative success of Cam Newton last year in energizing the Panthers. If RGIII is anywhere near as good this year as Cam was last year then the immediate return is pretty good and they have a low cost starting QB for four years. It’s a valiant effort to compare across eras but I think we’re already in a completely different valuation period than when the Chargers and Giants made their big trade.
It’s a different era than the last ten years. Yes. Teams way way way overvalued top picks in recent years relative to other picks.
However, do you think that performance of top QB’s is suddenly going to spike? That Cam Newton just washed away everything else? I don’t think so. That’s the key piece. Yes, if RG III is incredible, an all pro type player, then the deal works. That’s the piece that people just seem to assume based on overconfidence, Cam Newton, etc.
Yes, if you told me I could trade for Peyton Manning or Tom Brady at age 24 for two future 1sts and a 2nd, I do it. It’s the “not knowing” part that creates the risk.
People trying to hammer me assume that RGIII will be great (and that the Redskins will fill those spots with draft picks by instead finding the next Welker and Arian Foster as UDFA, another set of extremely rosy results), but that the Rams will be mediocre in using all those picks.
Yes, if you assure me that RGIII is guaranteed to be a star, I like the trade. RGIII is not guaranteed to be a star. They paid like he was. No room for error. Fin.
Yes, if you assure me that RGIII is guaranteed to be a star, I like the trade. RGIII is not guaranteed to be a star. They paid like he was. No room for error. Fin.
The Draft is a process of making a decision based on intense evaluations. No one is guaranteed to be a star. The Colts just released one of the greatest QB’s in the history of the game in anticpation of drafting someone who isn’t guaranteed to be a star, why? Because based on their evaluation and the evaluation of others this new guy is coming in with the goods, and based on other factors surrounding Manning, it is worth the risk. Without the benefit of a crystal ball, that is all you can really go by. No one is guaranteed to be a star, and that is the flaw in your argument. You place optimum value in the nameless, faceless picks the Skins traded away, while placing a high potential of mediocrity or bust on Griffin in spite of the high evaluations he has received.
There’s two sits of risks here in play here. -The risk of RG3 being an elite QB with the skills that propels a team to a Super Bowl. In this case, that risk seems reasonable. -The risk that the WAS front office can overcome the loss of draft picks (picks where there is less risk) and surround the rest of the team with enough difference makers to make these deep playoff runs. The WAS supporters here chime in “There is more talent on this team now than you think”. Okay, but what about in 4-5 years when RG3 hits his prime, will the talent be there?
I think there is too much talk on the former and not enough on the latter. I like RG3 but there is no example to really compare with this move. This is a true “we’ll have to wait and see” scenario.
But aren’t you making this move for when RG3 hits his prime. When he does, how will the WAS roster look?
You place optimum value in the nameless, faceless picks the Skins traded away, while placing a high potential of mediocrity or bust on Griffin in spite of the high evaluations he has received.
People trying to hammer me assume that RGIII will be great (and that the Redskins will fill those spots with draft picks by instead finding the next Welker and Arian Foster as UDFA, another set of extremely rosy results), but that the Rams will be mediocre in using all those picks.
I’m just seeing this and I wasn’t really trying to hammer you, I just think the rookie wage scale changes the value of draft picks immensely. I don’t even expect RGIII to be a star, really. Cam Newton was a revelation and I can’t say I expect to see that again, but it might happen. My point is just that the possibility that RGIII could be that good for that low of a price for 4 years makes the trade potentially worthwhile. Based on how the Redskins grade him (obviously pretty highly) and the way the rules on the field emphasize the importance of having a great QB I think it’s a worthwhile risk for the Redskins employed braintrust (Mr. Snyder is whole other bag of issues) to pull the trigger on the trade. And the rookie wage scale is brand new. This is going to be the first draft that occurs with those rules in place.
March 10th, 2012 at 4:06 PM
Good stuff Lisk. RG3000 os the next Akali Smith IMO.
March 10th, 2012 at 4:15 PM
This is actually a new era of draft pick worth, too, and it’s early in that era. Plus the way the rules are now, a good QB is worth more. I think the Redskins might have been motivated by the relative success of Cam Newton last year in energizing the Panthers. If RGIII is anywhere near as good this year as Cam was last year then the immediate return is pretty good and they have a low cost starting QB for four years. It’s a valiant effort to compare across eras but I think we’re already in a completely different valuation period than when the Chargers and Giants made their big trade.
March 10th, 2012 at 4:20 PM
It’d almost made more sense for CLE to do this haul than WAS b/c they have 2 1sts and could have accelerated the negative impact of the loss of draft selections. I’m not so sure though.
I think it’s entirely possible for WAS to scuffle for the next 4-5 seasons with RG3 due to the loss of picks, and then maybe he can make the pick worth it. It’s like going way over budget to get in on a real estate deal, if you were uber confident on the property escalating in value. You’re just shitting your pants, facing bankrupty, for 4-5 years and then praying for some good fortune.
But I’ll defer to our resident real estate expert…
March 10th, 2012 at 4:27 PM
Lisk — Great article, could you include the link for the Kosar thing? I didn’t see anything and that sounds like a cool read
March 10th, 2012 at 4:30 PM
Every time I start to feel bad about the Bills’ situation, I remind myself that the Redskins are even dumber
March 10th, 2012 at 4:30 PM
The Chargers/Giants comparison doesn’t work because San Diego still ended up with a quarterback. They didn’t “trade up to get a QB” so much as “trade up to swap QBs”. Washington is paying a premium because there are no other QBs after Luck and Griffin. Not the case when the Chargers made their trade — they were still getting Rivers.
March 10th, 2012 at 4:34 PM
Good stuff Lisk! Lots of shitty quarterbacks on that list.
March 10th, 2012 at 4:34 PM
Jacksonville will out-do the Redskins and send four #1′s to DEN for Tebow.
March 10th, 2012 at 5:01 PM
kinda disappointing that whitlock didn’t stop in to comment on Jeff George.
March 10th, 2012 at 5:03 PM
To be fair, Jeff George thinks he is better than half the current qb’s now.
March 10th, 2012 at 5:24 PM
The Chargers/Giants comparison doesn’t work because San Diego still ended up with a quarterback. They didn’t “trade up to get a QB” so much as “trade up to swap QBs”.
well, actually, the Giants traded for Manning, not the pick, since the trade went down after he was already selected.
Amazingly, that draft produced three really good quarterbacks in the top 3 chosen.
March 10th, 2012 at 5:48 PM
If I’m Cleveland, I keep both my 1st rounders just like they’ve done. I applaud them for this.
March 10th, 2012 at 6:41 PM
Is Synder now dumber than Al Davis with the Palmer deal. I say yes.
March 10th, 2012 at 6:42 PM
The Colts made the Aints their draft bitches both here and in 1967, when New Orleans gave up the first pick overall for Colts backup QB gary Cuozzo and the Colts got Bubba Smith. In 1973, the Aints ended up with Newsome and the Colts got Bert Jones. That’s what happend when your owner makes a former astronaut with no NFL experience your team’s GM.
March 10th, 2012 at 6:44 PM
Also, that picture of Leaf makes me wonder who’s douchier: Leaf or Rivers?
March 11th, 2012 at 12:01 AM
All the barbers in San Diego must suck.
March 11th, 2012 at 12:01 AM
I met Bert Jones’s niece, once. Hotter than hell.
March 11th, 2012 at 9:15 AM
This is actually a new era of draft pick worth, too, and it’s early in that era. Plus the way the rules are now, a good QB is worth more. I think the Redskins might have been motivated by the relative success of Cam Newton last year in energizing the Panthers. If RGIII is anywhere near as good this year as Cam was last year then the immediate return is pretty good and they have a low cost starting QB for four years. It’s a valiant effort to compare across eras but I think we’re already in a completely different valuation period than when the Chargers and Giants made their big trade.
It’s a different era than the last ten years. Yes. Teams way way way overvalued top picks in recent years relative to other picks.
However, do you think that performance of top QB’s is suddenly going to spike? That Cam Newton just washed away everything else? I don’t think so. That’s the key piece. Yes, if RG III is incredible, an all pro type player, then the deal works. That’s the piece that people just seem to assume based on overconfidence, Cam Newton, etc.
Yes, if you told me I could trade for Peyton Manning or Tom Brady at age 24 for two future 1sts and a 2nd, I do it. It’s the “not knowing” part that creates the risk.
People trying to hammer me assume that RGIII will be great (and that the Redskins will fill those spots with draft picks by instead finding the next Welker and Arian Foster as UDFA, another set of extremely rosy results), but that the Rams will be mediocre in using all those picks.
Yes, if you assure me that RGIII is guaranteed to be a star, I like the trade. RGIII is not guaranteed to be a star. They paid like he was. No room for error. Fin.
March 11th, 2012 at 10:02 AM
The Draft is a process of making a decision based on intense evaluations. No one is guaranteed to be a star. The Colts just released one of the greatest QB’s in the history of the game in anticpation of drafting someone who isn’t guaranteed to be a star, why? Because based on their evaluation and the evaluation of others this new guy is coming in with the goods, and based on other factors surrounding Manning, it is worth the risk. Without the benefit of a crystal ball, that is all you can really go by. No one is guaranteed to be a star, and that is the flaw in your argument. You place optimum value in the nameless, faceless picks the Skins traded away, while placing a high potential of mediocrity or bust on Griffin in spite of the high evaluations he has received.
March 11th, 2012 at 10:30 AM
There’s two sits of risks here in play here.
-The risk of RG3 being an elite QB with the skills that propels a team to a Super Bowl. In this case, that risk seems reasonable.
-The risk that the WAS front office can overcome the loss of draft picks (picks where there is less risk) and surround the rest of the team with enough difference makers to make these deep playoff runs. The WAS supporters here chime in “There is more talent on this team now than you think”. Okay, but what about in 4-5 years when RG3 hits his prime, will the talent be there?
I think there is too much talk on the former and not enough on the latter. I like RG3 but there is no example to really compare with this move. This is a true “we’ll have to wait and see” scenario.
But aren’t you making this move for when RG3 hits his prime. When he does, how will the WAS roster look?
March 12th, 2012 at 11:37 AM
You place optimum value in the nameless, faceless picks the Skins traded away, while placing a high potential of mediocrity or bust on Griffin in spite of the high evaluations he has received.
absolutely false
March 13th, 2012 at 3:41 PM
People trying to hammer me assume that RGIII will be great (and that the Redskins will fill those spots with draft picks by instead finding the next Welker and Arian Foster as UDFA, another set of extremely rosy results), but that the Rams will be mediocre in using all those picks.
I’m just seeing this and I wasn’t really trying to hammer you, I just think the rookie wage scale changes the value of draft picks immensely. I don’t even expect RGIII to be a star, really. Cam Newton was a revelation and I can’t say I expect to see that again, but it might happen. My point is just that the possibility that RGIII could be that good for that low of a price for 4 years makes the trade potentially worthwhile. Based on how the Redskins grade him (obviously pretty highly) and the way the rules on the field emphasize the importance of having a great QB I think it’s a worthwhile risk for the Redskins employed braintrust (Mr. Snyder is whole other bag of issues) to pull the trigger on the trade. And the rookie wage scale is brand new. This is going to be the first draft that occurs with those rules in place.