NFL Combine Report: NFL Draft Stock Up, Stock Down
The Combine is over. People are rising and falling, falling and rising all over the place. You will see most of the same names, and we mentioned some of them over the course of the Combine. We hear complaints about the attention paid to the Combine, and yes, it can be excessive. However, the extent to which teams blindly follow Combine numbers is overstated. The interviews and the whole process is important, often just to show the player has the discipline to prepare. Players who weren’t expected to be fast are not docked when they meet expectations. It is when the results at the combine differ with perceptions that the scouts then have to re-assess and take a closer look at a player.
Here are 8 names that you heard over the course of Combine week, and my quick take of how much they have really been impacted.
POSITIVE COMBINE
WR Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech. I talked about Hill on Sunday. Other receivers ran fast times, but they were mostly punt returner types or smaller guys. Hill, meanwhile, is tall and can also leap. The combine will not shoot him past some safer choices at the top. He’s also not slipping to the fourth round. Over half the guys drafted at wide receiver by the start of the second round don’t ever turn into starters. His physical gifts will have a team that views him as a second receiver with upside to stretch the field pull the trigger no later than early second round. If he can provide what Torrey Smith gave to the Baltimore offense as a deep threat, while learning the position, he will be worth the risk. His upside is that of Vincent Jackson, another fast receiver with size, who came into the league as a project, and Hill will have to develop as a receiver to get there. (I recommend this read by Matt Waldman which breaks down some flaws in Hill’s game as well)
NT/DT Dontari Poe, Memphis. Poe made a splash as a really big butt that ran a fast 40 time. Nose tackles aren’t typically judged by their speed, though, unless they pull a Vince Wilfork and intercept Philip Rivers. He was a good player on a bad team at Memphis, making scouting more difficult, so you can bet scouts will be trying to scour his tape. Given that half the league plays a version of the 3/4, Poe will be in demand as a fit at nose tackle with athleticism. All it takes is one team and he is in the conversation by mid-first round.
LB Luke Kuechly, Boston College. Sometimes the combine merely confirms a player, and that is the case with Kuechly. His on-field performance is good, and he put up good Combine numbers and will probably be on the wish list of every team in the NFC East.
QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor. Yes, the 40 time won’t make him an early pick. His passing ability will do that, but also being a freakish athlete who can escape trouble and make plays doesn’t hurt. More importantly, Griffin was the most popular player at the interviews with the media, and several slipped him “check yes or no” boxes. If there was any doubt before, he doesn’t get past Cleveland at #4, and the only issue is whether a team gives up enough picks to move up in front of that.
NEGATIVE COMBINE
LB Vontaze Burfict, Arizona State. Burfict certainly ranks up there in the notoriety versus performance category, especially last year when his effort was inconsistent. When you are a physical freak like a Lawrence Taylor, teams will forgive your foibles. When you show up at the combine and run slower than most defensive linemen, blame your coaches, and offer half-hearted explanations for your issues, teams aren’t going to want to deal with it. I guarantee several teams have removed him from consideration on the first two days of the draft. All it takes is one team to take a chance, but his stock is definitely going to be way down from where he appeared to be a year ago.
CB Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama. Jenkins was dismissed from Florida and finished with North Alabama. He had multiple arrests, and had to answer those questions. Some teams will appreciate the honesty; others will appreciate that they do not want to deal with a player so frequently in the news for the wrong things. Then came his disclosure about having four kids already at the age of 23, setting a pace that will challenge Antonio Cromartie. (the names? Janoris, Jr., Legend, Janorian, and Paris). Some teams may be concerned about all this stuff, though he is talented and someone will take a chance. After all, the rookie wage scale means that you don’t have to pay big until the second contract.
WR Kendall Wright, Baylor. This is one where the 40 time supposedly hurt a player. However, Wright was very productive, showed quickness in games, and runs excellent routes. Maybe teams don’t jump at him in the Top 10, which I thought was a stretch anyway. I suspect, though, that the reports of Wright’s demise will be greatly exaggerated. Teams will see the productivity and the game film and he will go mid to late first round.
DT Michael Brockers, LSU. The redshirt sophomore is viewed as a boom/bust guy with upside, but he showed up to the Combine and did not perform well, adding weight and not showing as much quickness or strength as expected. I add Brockers here just so I can add Vinny Cerrato’s assessment: “If I’m drafting a defensive tackle, I don’t want a part-time guy.” Cue Albert Haynesworth jokes. That comment may start shooting his stock back up.
[photo via US Presswire]

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19 Responses to “NFL Combine Report: NFL Draft Stock Up, Stock Down”
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February 29th, 2012 at 6:19 PM
Really interesting case with Wright. Curious how his poor combine will impact him.
I always lean productivity > Combine
February 29th, 2012 at 6:22 PM
You know you’re allowed to use both when evaluating right?
February 29th, 2012 at 6:27 PM
Watching “32″ ESPN2, love me some Wendy Nix!!!!!
/Hot for Teacher
February 29th, 2012 at 6:31 PM
Not when you are crafting a narrative.
February 29th, 2012 at 6:31 PM
Hope Janoris slides down to the Lions at 23.
February 29th, 2012 at 6:36 PM
You know you’re allowed to use both when evaluating right?
He didn’t say he didn’t use both; just weighs one more than the other
February 29th, 2012 at 6:44 PM
Well he said he leans one versus the other implying a choice had to be made between the two. But given the choice of looking a ones production college versus their measurables, I’d take measurables. Fortunately, GMs don’t have to chose. Though I imagine they’d rank game film above all.
February 29th, 2012 at 6:45 PM
all the major sites were jerking off to Kirk Cousins after his throwing sessions. Jerel Worthy was being torn apart.
February 29th, 2012 at 6:54 PM
Reminds me of Mike Shanahan taking Clarett 2 rounds before anyone else would have.
February 29th, 2012 at 7:01 PM
NT/DT Dontari Poe, Memphis. Poe made a splash as a really big butt that ran a fast 40 time.
I liked the unnamed Conference USA coach that PFT trotted out to say that this big dude took plays off. They could have named the coach, and nobody would have been able to figure out the school.
February 29th, 2012 at 7:06 PM
If there was any doubt before, he doesn’t get past Cleveland at #4, and the only issue is whether a team gives up enough picks to move up in front of that.
I actually think it’s a given, it’s just a matter of whether that broken draft choice trade sheet gets shown up to be broken. If the best offer is Cleveland’s 2 #1′s, for instance. Because the Rams have to take that, I would think. But we won’t know that for a long, miserable time.
February 29th, 2012 at 7:09 PM
Really interesting case with Wright. Curious how his poor combine will impact him.
if I were an industrious blogger, I might write a post about RGIII’s decision to throw only at Baylor Pro Day might give this guy a chance at a full redemption. Because it’s going to. Scourts are going to be slobbering all over themselves at Griffin throwing, and they’ll later remember that this kid was catching passes, and they were slobbering while he was doing it.
February 29th, 2012 at 7:19 PM
How could they not. Even if the Rams don’t get the haul they want, they can still get something >>> nothing.
February 29th, 2012 at 7:20 PM
How could they not. Even if the Rams don’t get the haul they want, they can still get something >>> nothing.
in that scenario, the “nothing” they are likely getting is Griffin, so I think your equation is invalid. And your P-value is really tiny, if you catch my meaning.
February 29th, 2012 at 7:20 PM
If RGIII had a poor combine, you’d be all over him dropping, Tibble.
February 29th, 2012 at 7:21 PM
You think the Rams would draft Griffin if no one gives them what they want? I don’t think that’s a bad idea necessarily, but they’d have a tough time unloading Bradford’s contract, right?
February 29th, 2012 at 7:32 PM
You think the Rams would draft Griffin if no one gives them what they want? I don’t think that’s a bad idea necessarily, but they’d have a tough time unloading Bradford’s contract, right?
I think it’s moot, because that #2 pick is definitely being traded, but yeah, I think they take Griffin if they end up jammed up with the pick. Because that’s not even a bad price for a 2nd QB.
They’re stuck with Bradford for now, though. His contract is onerous.
February 29th, 2012 at 7:57 PM
Tibble
I don’t know the origin story on the pejorative McTibble, but it’s really funny.
March 1st, 2012 at 6:14 PM
Not sure why people are thinking the Rams take RGIII if they stick at #2. They’ve already said they’re sticking with Bradford and there are worthy names at need positions that will be available. Mindlessly taking the BPA gets you nowhere.
/matt millen’d