Playoff vs. BCS: Games That Would Matter on Thanksgiving Weekend
The BCS presents itself as bastion protecting the integrity of college football’s regular season, adopting the mantra “every game counts.” The trouble is, not every game counts under the BCS. In fact, as college football heads into its penultimate weekend, only two games (LSU vs. Arkansas and Alabama vs. Auburn) have a bearing on the championship. If those results go as expected, LSU and Alabama will be in the title game. None of the Championship Week games would be relevant.
For shits and giggles, we wanted to compare this to how many games this weekend would matter if a playoff existed. For format, we’re using a 16-team playoff. Each conference receives an automatic bid. There are five at-large bids. Teams are selected and ranked, based on a formula. For this hypothetical, we’ll use the Simple Rating System as the formula. It’s objective. It’s simple, transparent, accounts for both strength of schedule and margin of victory.
Here’s what a possible playoff would look like.
LSU – SEC (1) vs. Arkansas State – Sun (16)
Alabama – AL (2) vs. Louisiana Tech – WAC (15)
Oklahoma State – B12 (3) vs. West Virginia – BE (14)
Oregon – P12 (4) vs. Northern Illinois – MAC (13)
Stanford – AL (5) vs. Virginia Tech – ACC (12)
Wisconsin –B1G (6) vs. TCU – MWC (11)
Boise State – AL (7) vs. Houston – CUSA (10)
Oklahoma – AL (8) vs. Michigan – AL (9)
Here are all the games, from this weekend alone, that would be significant under a 16-team playoff.
LSU vs. Arkansas – BCS Title, SEC Title
Alabama vs. Auburn – SEC Title, At Large Place
Virginia vs. Virginia Tech – ACC Title
Penn State vs. Wisconsin – B1G Title
Louisville vs. South Florida – Big East Title
Rutgers vs. Connecticut – Big East Title
Cincinnati vs. Syracuse – Big East Title
West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh – Big East Title
Houston vs. Tulsa – C-USA Title
Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan – MAC Title
Toledo vs. Ball State – MAC Title
Boise State vs. Wyoming – At Large Place
Oregon vs. Oregon State – Pac 12 Title
USC vs. UCLA – Pac 12 Title
Arizona State vs. Cal – Pac 12 Title
Utah vs. Colorado – Pac 12 Title
Stanford vs. Notre Dame – At Large Place
Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State – WAC Title
Nevada vs. Utah State – WAC Title
Michigan vs. Ohio State – At Large Place
Texas vs. Texas A&M – At Large Place
Michigan State vs. Northwestern – At Large Place
Kansas State vs. Iowa State – At Large Place
Texas Tech vs. Baylor – At Large Place
For those keeping score, that’s two games that count (LSU – 12-point favorite, Alabama – 21-point favorite) vs. 24 games that count. That’s not counting all the conference title games the following weekend. Every game doesn’t count under a playoff, but far more of them count than under the BCS.
[Photo via Getty]

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85 Responses to “Playoff vs. BCS: Games That Would Matter on Thanksgiving Weekend”
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November 23rd, 2011 at 12:56 PM
No. That’s the position you tubthumping playoff or nothing guys place on the other side of the fence to help justify your position.
November 23rd, 2011 at 12:58 PM
You’re right…Oklahoma State and Oklahoma means nothing. As does Stanford and ND, because should Alabama and Arkansas lose, it will just be LSU vs. LSU.
Nice try Duff-man
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:00 PM
There are plenty of interesting things to write about right now that involve sports and this is not one of them.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:02 PM
there’s no playoff system so who cares. why beat the topic into the ground
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:04 PM
I don’t know about you guys but I’m looking forward to the Appalachian State v. Maine game next weekend that has absolutely zero chance of being a sellout.
Playoffs!
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:05 PM
I’m sure the people in Athens, GA are feeling a little slighted. They’ll have something to say about who plays for the title.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:06 PM
post.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:08 PM
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:08 PM
You’re hypothesis incorrectly assumes all 16 teams stand an equal shot to win the flawed playoff system you espouse. Teams 13-16 have absolutely zero shot in hell, and teams 7, 9, 10, 11 and 12 have next to no shot of winning 4 consecutive games under such scenario.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:08 PM
Ah come on, we were having such a good day.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:09 PM
After TBL’s revelation that he and his college friends used to make fun of each other’s haircuts and Duffy’s incessant whiny little bitch-ness in 90% of his posts, I wonder what it would be like to hang out with this duo.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:11 PM
Only way I’d hang with them is in a noose.
/veal
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:12 PM
I don’t know. I’ve heard more than one variation of “every game is a playoff” or “the regular season is a playoff” or “a playoff would devalue the regular season” from the anti-playoff contingent.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:13 PM
If you had half empty stadiums for first round FCS playoff games, there would be a cottage industry of “college football is in trouble” breathless media coverage, complete with Darren Rovell tweeting pictures of said stadiums. Sounds fun!
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:14 PM
From the main stream media? Of course. I’m not anti-playoff. I’m for a playoff. I’m anti-bitching about the BCS.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:15 PM
This doesn’t exist.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:17 PM
My God the spurious arguments made on this blog about this subject really do hurt my brain. TBL I think it’s in your best interest to start posting legitimate alternatives to your playoff position that might inspire worthwhile substantive debate. Cramming this agenda down our throats is only making the argument look fickle.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:17 PM
Because there’s no playoff currently that means that any game with bearing on a conference championship this weekend doesn’t matter? But if there were a playoff these games would all of a sudden matter more? That’s ridiculous.
A) Conference titles are a big deal to alumni, students and the players. B) BCS bids are still on the line.
In that there are less BCS automatic and at-large bids than teams proposed in this playoff wouldn’t logic point to games with conference titles meaning more under the current system?
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:20 PM
If I were Georgia I’d be pissed Alabama is getting in the championship game. They were in line for the NC game when there were some upsets and they were the highest team left about 4 years ago. They got jumped by LSU because people said “if you didn’t even win your division, you can’t be in the NC” (and they didn’t even already lose to the team they would have been playing – at home no less)
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:22 PM
link?
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:23 PM
even Wetzel quit the stupid Wetzel plan, right?
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:23 PM
Wait a second. If you’re saying 24 games matter for the playoffs, how does VT/Virginia, Ok State/ Oklahoma, and Stanford/ND not count for the the BCS? If Arkansas and Auburn win there is going to be a mad dash for the 2 spot. Especially considering Arkansas would have to win another game. I hate all of these posts. Ugh. Make it stop.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:24 PM
Link.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:26 PM
from the anti-playoff contingent.
this is like saying someone is pro-abortion. I think I’m part of the anti-playoff contingent, because I like a +1, or some reasonable solution that makes 8 teams, but I am definitely anti-Arkansas State being a playoff team.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:26 PM
The talk of not filling up a stadium needs to stop. The money is made through TV and if there were playoffs there would be many eyeballs watching on the tube.
/team +1
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:27 PM
Wait a second. If you’re saying 24 games matter for the playoffs, how does VT/Virginia, Ok State/ Oklahoma, and Stanford/ND not count for the the BCS?
shhhhhh, Duffy’s trying to make a point.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:28 PM
Don’t care about those people. More concerned about Joe Q. Casualfan and Jane T. Fillsabracket.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:29 PM
Link
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:29 PM
that’s assuming your application for friendship would even be accepted with your weak gear and played out hair cut.
/whatev’s
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:31 PM
Don’t forget about J. Ayson McPageviews.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:32 PM
It might be rejected initially, but soon the talk would turn to how money he was. So money and he doesn’t even know it.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:33 PM
weak gear and played out hair cut.
Don’t sleep on “You Have No Game”
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:33 PM
the best part of that story was when they quit telling each other they had (kid and) played out hair, and started telling each other they had pretty hair.
It sounded like the preamble of a letter to blue boy magazine.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:33 PM
Wouldn’t it be a more appropriate comparison to count the number of games that will “matter” to all BCS bowls, and not just the championship game?
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:34 PM
What you did there. I see it.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:35 PM
Lets talk about something everyone here cares about. What beer is everyone drinking this thanksgiving?
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:35 PM
These pieces are turning evergreen, although I wonder if TBL or Ty could hack it at an actual newspaper, no editor I know would allow you to reprint the same pieces year after year.
Although I enjoy that the comment sections have by and large turned against these pieces (even though most of you in here are for playoffs).
I will say I’m evolving. I’m getting close to accepting the plus one because I think a plus one and conference championships is a pretty substantial playoffs that will crown the true champion more times than not. Although the BCS does crown the true champion 98 percent of the time so it’s tough to improve on that with a new format.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:36 PM
No beer. Templeton Rye.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:37 PM
What beer is everyone drinking this thanksgiving?
white wine, then red wine.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:37 PM
We’re not hosting Thanksgiving, but my sister-in-law is usually good for a Sam variety pack, and a decent selection of the hard stuff.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:38 PM
Going to pick up the Leinenkugel fall/winter sampler case (or maybe just the Fireside Nut Brown) after work.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:38 PM
Root
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:38 PM
It really bugs me that here “Playoff” = 16-team playoff without specifying.
I know a lot of people that would prefer a playoff over BCS, but a small, small percentage would want a 16-team one. 8? That would be okay. 4? Yes please.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:39 PM
Why do I want 24 games to “matter?” Does that mean the football played wont be terrible? I’m going to watch 2 or 3 games, and those will involve the top teams. I’m not suddenly glued to the TV watching 5 different BEast games to determine the 14 seed.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:39 PM
Various white wines and $8 vodka. Cause why not.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:39 PM
All of this.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:39 PM
I’m hitting up the Sierra Nevada Celebration Ale. Can’t get enough of that stuff this time of year.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:40 PM
Sure, more games would “matter” this weekend, but under a playoff scenario the LSU v Alabama “Game of the Century” a few weeks would not have mattered as much since both teams would clearly be going to playoffs. You can’t just discount the every game matters argument this weekend and not think of what a playoff would have done to games mattering in previous weeks.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:40 PM
Whatever my uncle picks up. Probably going to pick up some Flying Fish Grand Cru Reserve tonight on my way home along with beer for tailgating this Sunday.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:41 PM
Red wine with dinner, then whatever micro brews my uncle has this year. Probably some variety of Victory Brewing Co.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:41 PM
Root
Root is DELICIOUS. I’m thinking of getting a 6 pack of some 90 minute IPA so I can catch a serious buzz before hitting the bar scene and seeing 50 people I went to high school with, though I would only like to tlak to 4.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:42 PM
Lot of wine at my family holidays but I will have a few beers as well. My brother always keeps plenty of Sierra Nevadas on hand.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:42 PM
I’m not suddenly glued to the TV watching 5 different BEast games to determine the 14 seed.
I would like to force these two knuckleheads to watch a La Tech game with no way to change the channel, since it matters so much. And then an Arkansas State conference game. All while something like Oregon/Oregon State is on another channel.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:43 PM
and $8 vodka. Cause why not.
I know you don’t use it much now, but later in life, you might want to use that brain. So buy some better vodka than Popov. You’re killing yourself with poison.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:47 PM
Don’t forget about J. Ayson McPageviews.
What you did there. I see it.
enjoy your last few days here…
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:47 PM
lagunitas
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:49 PM
Big fan of their Hop Stupid.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:49 PM
had a b-day party for my 3-year old Sunday, a friend of ours brought a 6 pack of Modelo Negra and drank none of them are they any good?
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:50 PM
I have a bunch of Lil Sumpins in my fridge.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:51 PM
this one says
Sucks
on it and has a santa. something about them running out of some special brew so this the substitute. wife picked it up for me to try. maybe the best thing about having a whole foods employee for a wife. craft beer with a 25% discount
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:51 PM
Short answer: yes
Long answer: it’s free beer, you idiot
/seriously, they’re pretty decent
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:51 PM
if the cfb play-off posts are going to continue, can we at least stop pretending that the wetzel propsal is neither good or an improvement?
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:52 PM
had a b-day party for my 3-year old Sunday, a friend of ours brought a 6 pack of Modelo Negra and drank none of them are they any good?
that’s summertime beer, but I really like it. You need limes. It’s my favorite Mexican beer. And it’s Negro Modelo, although I guess Negro might get moderated.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:53 PM
here’s what it says about the issue
This sad holiday season we didn’t have the brewing capacity to make our favorite seasonal brew, the widely feard BrownShugga’ Ale. So this substitute beer is a ‘Cereal Medley’ of Barley, Rye, Wheat, and Oats…. Full of complexishness from the 4 grains, and weighing in at 7.6% abv, Then joyously dry-hopped for that big aroma and resinous hop flavor.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:53 PM
or I should have written can we stop pretending that the wetzel proposal is either good or an improvement
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:54 PM
had a b-day party for my 3-year old Sunday
I almost lost a psychological battle to my 3 year old about 20 minutes ago. I was ushering him upstairs for his nap, and out of the blue (well, to get out of going for a nap) he said, “let’s cook bacon.” It seemed like a really good idea, until I figured out what he was doing.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:54 PM
although I guess Negro might get moderated.
go withh the short ‘e’ and you’re fine
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:55 PM
that’s summertime beer, but I really like it. You need limes. It’s my favorite Mexican beer. And it’s Negro Modelo, although I guess Negro might get moderated.
neighbor has a lime tree that grows over the fence,should be around 70 this weekend so perfect…
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:55 PM
It’s tricky once they get to be as smart as you.
/rimshot
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:56 PM
I almost lost a psychological battle to my 3 year old about 20 minutes ago. I was ushering him upstairs for his nap, and out of the blue (well, to get out of going for a nap) he said, “let’s cook bacon.” It seemed like a really good idea, until I figured out what he was doing.
yep, my little guy is just starting to play the devious mind games…
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:58 PM
As crafty as his old man he is.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:58 PM
How’s he adjusting to his brother?
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:58 PM
Modelo amber isn’t too bad if you want something a little lighter. Beats Corona hands down.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:59 PM
+1
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:59 PM
neighbor has a lime tree that grows over the fence,should be around 70 this weekend so perfect…
we have such similar weather. I just dealt with a foot of snow (or so). Fancy new tractor mounted snowblower, at least.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:59 PM
What beer is everyone drinking this thanksgiving?
manhattans & great lakes christmas ale
November 23rd, 2011 at 2:00 PM
How’s he adjusting to his brother?
he’s doing better than me, but there’s been some acting out. And we’re way out of whack on schedules. But he still shits in the toilet, at least.
He really wants on that boob, though.
November 23rd, 2011 at 2:04 PM
Boobs and bacon… can you blame him?
November 23rd, 2011 at 2:06 PM
Boobs and bacon… can you blame him?
that should be the name of a sports bar….
November 23rd, 2011 at 2:08 PM
If they have Yuengling in DC, which I think they do, then Yuengling.
November 23rd, 2011 at 2:08 PM
I got a littler one joining the little one I have. Conerned about the adjustment.
November 23rd, 2011 at 2:15 PM
Ew.
November 23rd, 2011 at 2:16 PM
Ew
i said “get in line, asshole”
November 23rd, 2011 at 2:31 PM
Isn’t it about time for CJ to be knocked up now?
November 23rd, 2011 at 2:38 PM
Alternately -
Playoff vs. BCS: Jesus Fucking Christ, Again?!?