To WWoS’s point, the top tender for restricted free agents is a 1st rounder + a 3rd rounder. And nobody ever gives it up, because you never know what’s coming down the pipe.

The tender only applies to players with essentially 2 or less years of club control. Also, take into account that the tender brings with it a right of first refusal. So a team that tries to sign a guy with that tender has to tie up money into a player for a week while the other decides on whether to take them or the pick. That means when the team matches the offer, they may have missed out on plans B-D be stuck with whats left in the garbage heap.

I think out of the 1700 plus players, there are 100 worth a 1st round pick to a majority of teams.

yeah, but great NFL players are getting rewarded almost immediately with enormous contracts.

We’ll see. Cam Newton deserves way more money than he’s set to make. If he holds out this offseason, I’ll agree with you.

in my fantasies, there aren’t footballs. Just big boobied ladies.

yeah, but great NFL players are getting rewarded almost immediately with enormous contracts. And you can take a 1st round flyer on a QB again, without it costing you 50 million bucks.

see, that’s way, way different. Now you’re talking about a top 10 pick only. That’s considerably different than just a first rounder. So you’ve completely changed the argument.

That is very true. So you don’t think the trade value or draft value are skewed in any way to be taken advantage of? That there is no area of unidentified value?

I’m sure it could be taken advantage of.

The way rookies were thrown under the bus in the last deal makes those picks even more valuable now, though.

Only because dallas and Tampa can’t immediately replace them. Only because there’s a finite amount of NFL talent available.

To WWoS’s point, the top tender for restricted free agents is a 1st rounder + a 3rd rounder. And nobody ever gives it up, because you never know what’s coming down the pipe.

there’s not though, because nobody is not being paid already. Everybody is being paid something.

So what I’m hearing is that Brian Hoyer should be worth a 1st round pick this year?

/dougies

I have to go to lunch, it’s been a nice conversation Tom/Rusty/Dirt et al, and I’m going to keep thinking on this matter.

A player is only worth his value on the field in excess of his contract.

That is very true. So you don’t think the trade value or draft value are skewed in any way to be taken advantage of? That there is no area of unidentified value?

it’s not about the players themselves, it’s about the value of the position.

value is comprised of: output, durability & cost; variability in production as well durability have to be weighed, along with shifting forces in positional value. for example, RBs were often taken more in round 1 several years ago, premium centers have begun to move up;

also, you’d need to determine if this “1st round value” is relative to all teams or just a team taking that player; if a team picks 25 and needs a center and a premium center is there, is this still 1st round value despite it making sense, or is a center NEVER a 1st-round value;

Thoughts?

there’s not though, because nobody is not being paid already. Everybody is being paid something. So they’re either worth what they’re being paid, worth less than they’re being paid, or worth more than they’re being paid. Nobody just sitting there without 2 kinds of value already placed on them.
And you get more potential out of a draft choice than you do out of an already existing NFL entity. Their potential has already begun to be realized, regardless of what it is. (except in Steve Young’s case)

20-25 QBs

I don’t know about this… but I really don’t know about all those players. But looking through recent trades, not many players get traded for a 1st round pick. Not as many as would be drafted with a 1st round pick were they to enter the draft.

Trying to rephrase again… if all the players in the league who were traded for a 2nd/3rd round pick entered next year’s draft, many would be taken in the first round. That to me is an area of disconnect between value and cost.

better to pay a hungry rookie who is willing to run down kickoffs.

It is as ridiculous as I think it is, because in a vacuum, a quality left tackle is worth a first round draft choice, no question. In terms of the real world, nobody is giving up a first rounder for Donald Penn (who makes about 10 million this year) or Doug Free (who makes about 17 million this year), even though both will give you reasonable left tackle play, which is well worth a first round draft choice.

A player is only worth his value on the field in excess of his contract.

A LT worth $10 million on the field with a $10 million contract should garner nothing in a trade. (Or could be traded for something else worth nothing.)

It is as ridiculous as I think it is, because in a vacuum, a quality left tackle is worth a first round draft choice, no question. In terms of the real world, nobody is giving up a first rounder for Donald Penn

That’s my point. If no one else is giving up a first-rounder for a player who SHOULD be worth it, why wouldn’t a good GM do it? There is a disconnect there to take advantage of.