What’s Matt Forte Worth? The Bears Don’t Want to Pay Him Frank Gore or DeAngelo Williams Money
Here are some recent big contracts/extensions giving to NFL running backs:
Steven Jackson – 6 years, $44 million (August 2008)
Frank Gore – 3 years, $21 million, $13.5 million guaranteed (August 2011)
DeAngelo Williams – 5 years, $43 million $21 million guaranteed (July 2011)
Adrian Peterson – 7 years, $100 million, $36 million guaranteed (September 2011)
Chris Johnson – 6 years, $56 million, $30 million guaranteed (September 2011)
Based on those numbers, what would you guess Chicago’s Matt Forte is worth? There’s a good story by Sean Jensen of the Sun-Times today about the Bears low-balling Forte in the preseason. Chicago apparently offered the running back roughly $6 million a year with about $13-14 million guaranteed. That is a way of telling Forte (current salary: $600k) – we think you’re worth half of what AP/CJ are, and less than DeAngelo Williams.
Huh?
Behind perhaps the weakest offensive line in football, Forte is among the best backs in the league through five games in 2011. He’s 6th in rushing yards, averaging 5.4 ypc, he leads RBs in receiving yards (345) and has 30 receptions, which is more than Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, and Santonio Holmes (among others).
Forte was beastly as a rookie, and not as productive the following two seasons (but still good). He turns 27 in December, so he probably has 3-4 good seasons left. His agent would probably push for a 5-6 year deal, but the Bears, who are getting old defensive and still don’t have any talent at WR, are probably not going to want to do that. So do they apply the Franchise tag, or trade him, and make someone else give him the big bucks?
There aren’t any quality backs expected to hit free agency next year (unless you think Ray Rice or Peyton Hillis hit the market, which would be awesome for my Jets). It’s likely only going to be Forte and Arian Foster. As a Jets fan, I’d welcome Forte with open arms (if the price was right, obviously). The Jets will be losing their only pass-receiving threat out of the backfield (LT), and Greene has stone hands.
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124 Responses to “What’s Matt Forte Worth? The Bears Don’t Want to Pay Him Frank Gore or DeAngelo Williams Money”
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October 12th, 2011 at 12:44 PM
Peyton Hillis hit the market, which would be awesome for my Jets
I hope Tannenbaum feels the same way
October 12th, 2011 at 12:45 PM
Larry Centers was the greatest footballer of all time I tell ya.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:45 PM
They’re going to franchise tag him next year and will probably waste a draft pick on a running back instead of something necessary like a corner or OLman.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:47 PM
and has 30 receptions, which is more than Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, and Santonio Holmes (among others).
if there’s one thing I can think of that’s better than quality, it’s quantity. Oh, and oranges are way, way, way better than apples.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:48 PM
So, then you’re in agreement with the Chicago front office.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:50 PM
Your autoplay NyQuil ad is completely destroying my experience at this site.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:50 PM
His agent would probably push for a 5-6 year deal, but the Bears, who are getting old defensive and still don’t have any talent at WR,
as with any NFL contract, the agent will push for a boatload of upfront money. Failing that, he will ask for a hugely frontloaded contract that includes guaranteed bonuses.
Nobody cares how long a deal lasts except the pencil pusher in the back who has to amortize those bonuses.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:50 PM
if there’s one thing I can think of that’s better than quality, it’s quantity.
Isn’t that the philosophy of most of the commenters on this here website?
October 12th, 2011 at 12:51 PM
I don’t know about you, but I get paid per comment.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:52 PM
Fixed
October 12th, 2011 at 12:53 PM
I thought the same thing, but couldn’t put it in the patented snark that you present. It’s easy to rip 30 catches when the QB is checking down to avoid getting creamed.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:53 PM
I just keep hitting refresh until I no longer see NyQuil at the top of the page.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:53 PM
I don’t know about you, but I get paid per comment.
I was referring more towards their philosophy on hogs as slump busters, but yours works too.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:54 PM
Frank Gore should not be allowed to work up his own contracts.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:55 PM
Hillis is going to burn out just as quickly as Christian Okoye and Marian Barber did.
Yep. Length of a contract in the NFL is essentially meaningless.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:55 PM
Franchise him. You pay for expected future production, not past production like the Titans did. Matt Forte is replaceable. Too many Bears fans are letting emotional attachments get in the way.
He’s a football player, not an heirloom. Treat him as such.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:55 PM
Flacco checks down to Ray Rice, he’s Checkdown Charlie. Cutler checks down to Forte, Forte’s the most valuable catcher of passes in the league. Interesting dichotomy.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:55 PM
Dirt’s thunder stealing satchel is busting at the seams.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:56 PM
You, being the blowhardiest of all blowhards, should know that to be a fan is to have “emotional attachments.” Inherently linked. Unless you DON’T want to be a fan.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:56 PM
And Sean Jensen is a condescending shit-stirrer. Go back to Minnesota.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:56 PM
Mute. Button.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:57 PM
And Jeff Pearlman is an asshole!
October 12th, 2011 at 12:57 PM
Cutler doesn’t check down to him, he throws it left handed to him as he’s about to get decapitated by both defensive ends at the same time.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:58 PM
That is a way of telling Forte (current salary: $600k) – we think you’re worth half of what AP/CJ are, and less than DeAngelo Williams.
he’s also making about 1/5th of what Marion Barber is making this year, for doing fuck all.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:58 PM
That’s why fans aren’t general managers, weeze. Although they’d probably do a better job at drafting offensive talent than Jerry Angelo.
Again, he’s a football player and is therefore a commodity. Commodities are replaceable. One piece of the puzzle doesn’t make a team. Why would you pay the guy a ton of guaranteed money when you can franchise him for one year and then make a decision?
October 12th, 2011 at 12:59 PM
You were 100% right about him when I asked you what to expect from him back in August. Credit given where due.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:59 PM
Larry Centers was the greatest footballer of all time I tell ya.
Larry Centers would have been a sweet fantasy play in a PPR league.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:59 PM
That is correct. A lot. If Forte wants more than $12-$13 mil guaranteed from a deal, let him find it elsewhere.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:59 PM
Cutler doesn’t check down to him, he throws it left handed to him as he’s about to get decapitated by both defensive ends at the same time.
It’s funny because it’s true, and because Jay Cutler is going to die in a pocket collapse accident.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:01 PM
I’m all for this.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:01 PM
He should go to a that does not play the Lions twice a year.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:01 PM
You also said that when Urlacher got hurt in the opener against the Packers 2 years ago that it wouldn’t negatively impact the Bears.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:02 PM
*team
October 12th, 2011 at 1:04 PM
TBL: It doesn’t really matter who the RB is for the Jets if teams are loading 8 guys in the box every play. Besides, a team that’s used 4 of their 13 draft picks the last 3 years on the RBs should not be investing big FA money in the position. Otherwise, you get the depth issues they are starting to experience on the lines, at other positions.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:04 PM
Only if he takes Kristin with him
October 12th, 2011 at 1:05 PM
Interesting as I don’t even remember Urlacher getting hurt two years ago against the Packers, but I don’t like Brian Urlacher so I wouldn’t be surprised if I did make a comment like that. I think he’s old and average and makes dumb decisions.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:06 PM
i like ribbing sg for seemingly wanting to talk about baby animals more than sports on a sports blog but seeing stuff like this has me thinking it’s best she stay in her wheelhouse
/awww, it’s a widdle fwog!
October 12th, 2011 at 1:06 PM
If the Jets wanted someone on the Bears roster, my money is on Jay Cutler.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:06 PM
Otherwise, you get the depth issues they are starting to experience on the lines, at other positions.
TBL’s solution for the Jets O Line – fix it.
TBL’s solution for the rest of the Jets offense (minus QB) – fantasy studs
TBL’s solution for the QB problem – there is no QB problem
October 12th, 2011 at 1:07 PM
no way. she’s great.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:08 PM
Interesting as I don’t even remember Urlacher getting hurt two years ago against the Packers, but I don’t like Brian Urlacher so I wouldn’t be surprised if I did make a comment like that.
It was either week 2 or week 3, and he missed the whole rest of the season, and they had to move Hunter Hillenmeyer inside. It was a pretty big deal.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:09 PM
First of all, fuck you. Second of all, you’re taking SC’s word for it that he remembers my exact comment from 2 years ago? You’d have to be a pretty big moron to think I actually want Jay Cutler to die in a pocket collapse, asshole.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:09 PM
/awww it’s another widdle fwog
October 12th, 2011 at 1:10 PM
Forte should pull an Al Czervik during the next game, and just Derek Bell the rest of the season.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:11 PM
Jay Cutler is going to die in a hot pocket collapse.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:12 PM
he probably has a screen shot of it.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:12 PM
So Caleb Hanie is the answer? Or was it Dan “thanks for wasting a draft pick on me” LeFevour?
October 12th, 2011 at 1:12 PM
Great tomatoes.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:13 PM
My honest question about the Bears is this… Jay Cutler is 28 years old. Is it still possible for the Bears to acquire the offensive talent around him whether through FA or the draft for them to be good enough to win before he hits his decline?
With the current FO, I think not. They need a whole offensive rebuild everywhere except RT and QB. All the while finding replacements for aging defensive players.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:13 PM
If your QB dies in a pocket collapse are you awarded the #1 draft pick?
October 12th, 2011 at 1:14 PM
My comment is awaiting moderation.
/first time
October 12th, 2011 at 1:14 PM
that said… http://www.mittensoccer.com was highly disappointing.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:14 PM
Great tomatoes.
especially if your a local slug, or fruit fly. Easy access through all the cracks.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:15 PM
Do you know how heriloom tomatoes get their “heirloom” status? They have to come from a plant that has been producing fruit for at least 50 years.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:15 PM
Collapse for Luck doesn’t sound nearly as page-clicky
October 12th, 2011 at 1:15 PM
that said… http://www.mittensoccer.com was highly disappointing.
I thought mitten soccer was going to be a link to all the nudie pictures she wasn’t tweeting. Turns out, it’s soccer for mittens (or something else that isn’t nude pictures).
October 12th, 2011 at 1:16 PM
the bears didn’t even get their pick back for gaines adams so i’ll guess no
October 12th, 2011 at 1:16 PM
Somehow I expected kittens in mittens playing soccer.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:16 PM
that’s my dad’s website, and I take no responsibility for the appearance or content of the site.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:17 PM
Do you know how heriloom tomatoes get their “heirloom” status?
one hippie who grows tomatoes has to know another hippie who can write $4.75/pound in calligraphy?
October 12th, 2011 at 1:17 PM
If the Cubs could steal Theo from the Red Sox…
/begins Googling for Bill Belichick’s phone number
//finds Ted Thompson’s instead
///that’ll work
October 12th, 2011 at 1:18 PM
still stunning how much pressure the Lions were able to get on the QB 4 on 5.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:18 PM
Definitely. But I like to jam at work, so this isn’t possible.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:18 PM
the bears didn’t even get their pick back for gaines adams so i’ll guess no
I’m about to die laughing, thinking of the chicago GM with dead gaines adams in a plastic bag in one hand, and a receipt that says 4th round draft choice in the other, yelling and shoving that receipt back into the face of the Tampa GM.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:19 PM
hot pocket collapse.
ow, the roof of my mouth!!
October 12th, 2011 at 1:19 PM
Jay Cutler is going to die in a pocket collapse accident.
I’m all for this.
until you look at what other option there are at QB.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:19 PM
still stunning how much pressure the Lions were able to get on the QB 4 on 5.
no
October 12th, 2011 at 1:21 PM
still stunning how much pressure the Lions were able to get on the QB 4 on 5
Not if you have been watching this shit OL that Angelo has put together the last two years.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:21 PM
The 4 represents real live NFL football players. The 5 represents guys you wouldn’t trust mowing your lawn.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:21 PM
Freaking Martz and his stubborn refusal to leave in a TE and RB to block. Lions knew it and said go ahead with draw plays, we are keeping our DE way outside and gunning for Jay.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:21 PM
still stunning how much pressure the Lions were able to get on the QB 4 on 5.
everybody gets that much pressure on Chicago. Those tackles are really, really bad. Their center is the right guard they’ve been trying to replace for 5 seasons, too.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:22 PM
and a receipt that says 4th round draft choice in the other, yelling and shoving that receipt back into the face of the Tampa GM
It was a second round pick.
FU Angelo!
October 12th, 2011 at 1:23 PM
the bears are rarely in the red zone so the only game of theirs he’s seen was when they moved up and down the field on the jets last year…would lead one to believe that their offense isn’t garbage
October 12th, 2011 at 1:23 PM
It was a second round pick.
even worse.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:23 PM
I have it on good authority that J’Marcus Webb is an expert tree pruner.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:23 PM
The right thing to do is pay Forte, the smart thing to do is tag him like SC said.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:24 PM
Did you see who the 5 were?
October 12th, 2011 at 1:25 PM
Butters BC-
HAHA
October 12th, 2011 at 1:25 PM
This is why they’ll probably end up giving Forte too much money, too. Because of all the times that Martz has said that Forte fits his system. When Martz uttered the name Marshall Faulk in the same sentence as Matt Forte I about lost my shit.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:26 PM
Bears O line just as good as Cubs top three starting rotation pitchers.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:26 PM
what’s stunning is that there may not be a worse abuse of authority than what angelo and those who keep him employed have done to/with cutler.
they are wasting his prime, and like the guy or not, he is not getting a chance to shine. he needs protection, some professional WRs to throw to and some playcalling that doesn’t paint targets on his head, chest and back
October 12th, 2011 at 1:26 PM
I have it on good authority that J’Marcus Webb is an expert tree pruner.
did he put in an application somewhere? Because he might ought to.
the bears are rarely in the red zone so the only game of theirs he’s seen was when they moved up and down the field on the jets last year…would lead one to believe that their offense isn’t garbage
that Red Zone is a great channel. Really great. But you are decidedly not watching a football game. You’re just watching potential highlights, and then actual highlights.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:27 PM
since this appears to be chicago day at TBL, i’m feeling those new derrick rose kicks.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:27 PM
For a former 1st rounder, right? My theory is that draft picks lose value the second they are picked. There may be 150 first round picks playing in the NFL, but only 50 players that could be traded for a first rounder.
Ellis Hobbs, a starting CB/KR for a team that made a Superbowl, only got a 5th rounder, that should say something. If there was a CB available in round 5 who you KNEW would be a starting CB, you’d jump at it.
Somehow, the salary cap is responsible, because Hobbs was making more than 5th round salary. Otherwise why wouldn’t teams jump to trade 4/5/6th rounders for starters.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:28 PM
Is today Chicago day at TBL? No complaints but three straight Chicago posts. Well, 2.5. The Janoff Joint I accidentally clicked on. Even though it’s Stosh, I’m not sure I want to read it.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:29 PM
there may not be a worse abuse of authority than what angelo and those who keep him employed have done to/with cutler.
This.
I’m convinced Denver called Angelo to offer him Cutler and talked him into it.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:29 PM
What do you mean “before”
October 12th, 2011 at 1:29 PM
I dont think the Bears have any interest in signing him to a market-contract. They might franchise him (ala Sproles) for 1 year just for time to groom a replacement.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:34 PM
1 year just for time to groom a replacement.
Bears groom a replacement?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAH!
October 12th, 2011 at 1:34 PM
WWoS: There are a couple things to consider though. First, a pick represents any position of a player of your chosing with 4-5 years of cheap service, while a Vet you trade for is either more expensive or for less year or both, thus lowering the value. Also, I think your 50 players number is low, and there are many players worth 2+ 1st round picks. Lastly, picks give you flexibility come draft time, where as its much harder to trade players, you can use a 5th with other picks to move and get another player you want.
Going back to the # of players worth a 1st rounder or more, I think it would be a fun exercise. Hopefully Lisk is around and takes up the challenge.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:35 PM
For a former 1st rounder, right?
Gaines Adams was a bust in Tampa, and Chicago traded for him in the year when they were desperate, when both Alex Brown and Wally Ogunleye ended up washed up all at once (this is before they signed Peppers). He was an expensive reclamation project, because Chicago was desperate for anybody at that point.
My theory is that draft picks lose value the second they are picked.
potential versus realized potential. Once there’s NFL practice film, everybody knows what you’re worth.
Ellis Hobbs, a starting CB/KR for a team that made a Superbowl, only got a 5th rounder, that should say something. If there was a CB available in round 5 who you KNEW would be a starting CB, you’d jump at it.
Philly traded for the kick returner Ellis Hobbs, not the CB Ellis Hobbs, who New England replaced with a better player
October 12th, 2011 at 1:37 PM
Draft picks are slave labor. Vets are most assuredly not.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:38 PM
Going back to the # of players worth a 1st rounder or more, I think it would be a fun exercise. Hopefully Lisk is around and takes up the challenge.
the way contacts get set up this is a ridiculous exercise. You’d have to do it without respect to any contract. And if you did that, there would probably be at least 200 guys worth a first round draft choice, league wide.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:39 PM
I like everything you said. I’d be very interesting to see the pick ‘expense’ vs ‘value’ in the league, and for individual teams. I do think that the difference is caused by the cost of players no longer on their rookie contracts, and fewer years of club control left.
If I was a GM however, one of the first things I’d do is hire a full-time economist/statistician to put those numbers together, and tell me where the market inefficiency is. To me, if you can pry away young starters with 2-3 years of control left, for a 4th/5th round pick, that seems like a good deal. You’d just have to do a lot of analysis about cost vs. years of control, and what is important and what is the value, and I don’t think any of us could answer that without a lot of work.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:43 PM
Clay… I don’t really disagree with anything you said, and I don’t even really have a point to defend. I just wonder if you could get a young player for a 2nd round pick, who could contribute for 3 years at a cheap salary, instead of drafting with a 1st (or even 3rd) and taking the risk, that maybe it would be worth it.
To put it more simply: if you went to the extremes, could you build a better team ONLY by drafting players, or by trading EVERY draft pick for a player already in the league.
That would take into account value, years, money, and risk of bust.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:43 PM
I don’t think its as ridiculous as you think. Despite their contracts, pretty much all teams* would ship a 1st rounder to NE for Brady or to Minny for AP.
*Teams without a star player at these positions
October 12th, 2011 at 1:44 PM
The problem is if the player is good enough to be worth a 2nd round pick, he’s probably good enough to hold out of his current contract and demand (and be worth) more money. Might make it dicey to trade for those guys.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:46 PM
if you went to the extremes, could you
I put wheels on my grandmother, but she did not become a bicycle.
by trading EVERY draft pick for a player already in the league.
Picks in rounds 4,5,6,7 have almost no value, and half the people you draft you draft to fill your camp rosters anyway. And besides that, there are some compensatory draft choices that you cannot trade. So your question is even mooter than you thought it was.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:47 PM
Matt Cassell, Donovan McNabb were both traded for 2nd round picks or below. Granted they ended up sucking, but were both thought of at least average starters in the league at the time of the trade. So if there aren’t even 32 QB’s worth a 1st rounder, I’m not sure there’s 200 players total. And yes a lot of that is contract situation, but I do wonder if there is some trend in trading/drafting that could be exposed by a GM willing to go out on a limb.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:48 PM
I don’t think its as ridiculous as you think. Despite their contracts, pretty much all teams* would ship a 1st rounder to NE for Brady or to Minny for AP.
*Teams without a star player at these positions
It is as ridiculous as I think it is, because in a vacuum, a quality left tackle is worth a first round draft choice, no question. In terms of the real world, nobody is giving up a first rounder for Donald Penn (who makes about 10 million this year) or Doug Free (who makes about 17 million this year), even though both will give you reasonable left tackle play, which is well worth a first round draft choice.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:48 PM
to be good enough to win before he hits his decline?
What do you mean “before”
not fair, beef. he has not had much of a chance
/looks at beef’s fantasy record
//wtf do you know about football?
///winks
October 12th, 2011 at 1:49 PM
I thought of that, but they do that for current teams too.
My question is poorly-developed, but I’m not so sure it’s an entirely pointless exercise.
So getting a roster player (Hobbs) for that pick would be a great deal, if you can pay him any less on his current contract than you would for a similar player in free agency.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:49 PM
Steelers and Packers do 90% of their player acquisition via the draft.
I think I would rather trade a player with 2-3 years left on his cotract that I knew wasn’t part of my teams future for a 4th/5th draft pick.
For Example, Steelers dumped Holmes for I think the pick (a 5th) they used on A. Brown. Now Brown certainly is not as good a player as Holmes, but Holmes was up for an new contract, with no promise he’d resign while Brown still has 4 years left at a 5th round cost.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:50 PM
I’m not sure there’s 200 players total
20-25 QBs
20-25 OT
5-10 guards/centers
5 TEs
10 receivers at least
20 rush ends
5 DT’s at least
4 safeties, 3 corners
and 25 of the 32 most recent #1 draft choices
and some running backs.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:51 PM
That’s my point. If no one else is giving up a first-rounder for a player who SHOULD be worth it, why wouldn’t a good GM do it? There is a disconnect there to take advantage of.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:52 PM
A player is only worth his value on the field in excess of his contract.
A LT worth $10 million on the field with a $10 million contract should garner nothing in a trade. (Or could be traded for something else worth nothing.)
October 12th, 2011 at 1:52 PM
if you can pay him any less on his current contract than you would for a similar player in free agency.
better to pay a hungry rookie who is willing to run down kickoffs.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:53 PM
I don’t know about this… but I really don’t know about all those players. But looking through recent trades, not many players get traded for a 1st round pick. Not as many as would be drafted with a 1st round pick were they to enter the draft.
Trying to rephrase again… if all the players in the league who were traded for a 2nd/3rd round pick entered next year’s draft, many would be taken in the first round. That to me is an area of disconnect between value and cost.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:54 PM
Dirt, I think the Bears would offer a pick in the 12 or higher range for Free or Penn and would get rejected. I think their contracts add to their value because they are locked up.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:54 PM
If no one else is giving up a first-rounder for a player who SHOULD be worth it, why wouldn’t a good GM do it? There is a disconnect there to take advantage of.
there’s not though, because nobody is not being paid already. Everybody is being paid something. So they’re either worth what they’re being paid, worth less than they’re being paid, or worth more than they’re being paid. Nobody just sitting there without 2 kinds of value already placed on them.
And you get more potential out of a draft choice than you do out of an already existing NFL entity. Their potential has already begun to be realized, regardless of what it is. (except in Steve Young’s case)
October 12th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
the way contacts get set up this is a ridiculous exercise. You’d have to do it without respect to any contract. And if you did that, there would probably be at least 200 guys worth a first round draft choice, league wide.
value is comprised of: output, durability & cost; variability in production as well durability have to be weighed, along with shifting forces in positional value. for example, RBs were often taken more in round 1 several years ago, premium centers have begun to move up;
also, you’d need to determine if this “1st round value” is relative to all teams or just a team taking that player; if a team picks 25 and needs a center and a premium center is there, is this still 1st round value despite it making sense, or is a center NEVER a 1st-round value;
Thoughts?
October 12th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
but I really don’t know about all those players.
it’s not about the players themselves, it’s about the value of the position.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:56 PM
That is very true. So you don’t think the trade value or draft value are skewed in any way to be taken advantage of? That there is no area of unidentified value?
October 12th, 2011 at 1:57 PM
200 is way too high. I was think around a 100 players that would be worth the 10th (a 1st has too much variation in value) overall pick. That includes their current contracts.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:59 PM
So what I’m hearing is that Brian Hoyer should be worth a 1st round pick this year?
/dougies
I have to go to lunch, it’s been a nice conversation Tom/Rusty/Dirt et al, and I’m going to keep thinking on this matter.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:59 PM
Dirt, I think the Bears would offer a pick in the 12 or higher range for Free or Penn and would get rejected. I think their contracts add to their value because they are locked up.
Only because dallas and Tampa can’t immediately replace them. Only because there’s a finite amount of NFL talent available.
To WWoS’s point, the top tender for restricted free agents is a 1st rounder + a 3rd rounder. And nobody ever gives it up, because you never know what’s coming down the pipe.
October 12th, 2011 at 2:00 PM
I’m sure it could be taken advantage of.
The way rookies were thrown under the bus in the last deal makes those picks even more valuable now, though.
October 12th, 2011 at 2:02 PM
I was think around a 100 players that would be worth the 10th
see, that’s way, way different. Now you’re talking about a top 10 pick only. That’s considerably different than just a first rounder. So you’ve completely changed the argument.
October 12th, 2011 at 2:02 PM
I think the term “1st round pick” is probbaly skewed; just like fantasty, there are tiers of production; you’d have superstar tier, star tier, etc; finding the value at the lower level of the tiers would be the objective,
October 12th, 2011 at 2:03 PM
The way rookies were thrown under the bus in the last deal makes those picks even more valuable now, though.
yeah, but great NFL players are getting rewarded almost immediately with enormous contracts. And you can take a 1st round flyer on a QB again, without it costing you 50 million bucks.
October 12th, 2011 at 2:04 PM
just like fantasy
in my fantasies, there aren’t footballs. Just big boobied ladies.
October 12th, 2011 at 2:06 PM
We’ll see. Cam Newton deserves way more money than he’s set to make. If he holds out this offseason, I’ll agree with you.
October 12th, 2011 at 2:06 PM
The tender only applies to players with essentially 2 or less years of club control. Also, take into account that the tender brings with it a right of first refusal. So a team that tries to sign a guy with that tender has to tie up money into a player for a week while the other decides on whether to take them or the pick. That means when the team matches the offer, they may have missed out on plans B-D be stuck with whats left in the garbage heap.
I think out of the 1700 plus players, there are 100 worth a 1st round pick to a majority of teams.
October 12th, 2011 at 2:23 PM
Forte doesn’t come close to Gore in terms of worth, and I’m not sure D. Williams does either. Gore carried the SF offense most of the last 4-5 years while they had no QB to speak of. Neither Forte nor Willoiams has done that.