Tim Tebow Named the Starter in Denver, Which is Great, Because ESPN’s New QB Stat Said He Had a Better Weekend Than Aaron Rodgers
In August, when ESPN unveiled its new QB stat, Jason Lisk raised a caution flag. I noted how ESPN has a similar stat for the NBA, and it occasionally spits out bizarre “efficiency ratings” – like having Rajon Rondo 16th among point guards, behind guys like Ramon Sessions and Earl Boykins. As I’ve been saying for years, stats can carry significant weight in baseball because you’re in a 1-on-1 setting, but that’s not nearly the case in the NBA or NFL.
Anyway, Mike Florio noted that ESPN’s QB rating from last weekend had Tim Tebow (4-of-10 passing, 79 yards) higher than Aaron Rodgers (26-of-39, 396 yards, 2 TDs). Tebow scored an 83.2. Rodgers checked in at 82.1. Tebow, playing at home, lost; Rodgers, playing on the road, won. Stats!
This morning, John Fox announced to the team that Tebow would be the starter in Miami two Sundays from now. Go get ‘em, Tim.
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October 11th, 2011 at 11:11 AM
Me thinks ESPN needs to revise their shiny and new QB Rating System.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:13 AM
Tebow had an incredibly small sample size luddites, chill out.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:14 AM
Hell yeah. I’m with you here TBL. Tebow absolutely has faults but I wish him the best of luck. Let’s see what he’s got. I hope he proves everyone wrong.
Let’s go Tebow!
October 11th, 2011 at 11:14 AM
I’m still supportin’ Orton.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:14 AM
Tebow 3:16 says “I just stole your job, Brady!”
October 11th, 2011 at 11:15 AM
Tebow had an incredibly small sample size luddites, chill out.
Yes. I’ve calmed down from earlier. I just don’t really think he should have been included with the other QB’s that played full games. If he came in and went 3-3 passing with 30 yards, would that be a 100.0 rating?
October 11th, 2011 at 11:15 AM
doesn’t the espn stat give bonus points for being “clutch”? seems like rodgers would get penalized for being on a team that keeps winning by 10+
seems like the ol’ qb rating still tells a better story
October 11th, 2011 at 11:16 AM
You mean to tell me that a stat pulled after just one half of play might not accurately portray the effectiveness of a QB? Balderdash!!!
October 11th, 2011 at 11:16 AM
Joe Bauserman would love this QB rating system.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:16 AM
Have to see what he’s like under center. No other way to do that unless he gets playing time.
/waits to hear how Tebow will suck
//looking at you Husker
October 11th, 2011 at 11:17 AM
1) YPA
2) Comp %
9) QB rating
11) ESPN’s new stat
October 11th, 2011 at 11:17 AM
According to Evan Silva Tebow led all players in fantasy points during his three game stint last year. Guess I’ll put a claim in on him.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:18 AM
now that I’ll agree with…but if there isn’t a qualifier for an occasion such as this (QB plays only portion of the game) it doesn’t automatically mean the stat is extremely flawed
October 11th, 2011 at 11:20 AM
He’ll throw for 78 and run for 85 and score a rushing TD.
In most leagues, rushing for 80 yards is the equivalent of throwing for 200. So his crappy passing yards are just gravy.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:20 AM
I’m actually quivering in my chair at this news–
/I kid, I kid–I wish him the best
//Breaking news! I’m black!
///From Round-up post
October 11th, 2011 at 11:20 AM
That seems like a helluva disconnect, considering that QB rating is just the average of the first two, along with TD% and INT%, if I remember correctly
October 11th, 2011 at 11:20 AM
i thought you didn’t like this since it says sanchez and matt ryan are the same guy
just checked thhis year’s stats…rodgers and brady tied at the top with 9.56 ypa, that’s damn good
October 11th, 2011 at 11:21 AM
that needed a “/TBL on stats” tag
October 11th, 2011 at 11:21 AM
You can’t fully separate the performance of a QB from the performance of his pass-catchers, but that doesn’t mean pursuing better tools for evaluation is somehow unworthy.
Also, the FO QB rankings.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:21 AM
enjoy sucking even worse, broncos.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:22 AM
lol. It will be exciting sucking, though.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:23 AM
QBR takes into account Tebow’s rushing stats as well. Also penalizes Rodgers for taking 4 sacks behind a patchwork O-line.
QBR was not designed meant to be interpreted on a game-by-game basis. Neither was the original QB rating, which is why you could throw a few incompletions and still have a “perfect” QB rating.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:24 AM
i thought you didn’t like this since it says sanchez and matt ryan are the same guy
Actually, I think he likes making sanchez/ryan comparison because he (along with a lot of other media folks) think Ryan is actually good.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:25 AM
Meh. the team is 1-4 and had a chance to tie/win in their final possession in 3 of the losses. I’ll go ahead and take my chances with Tebow rather than Orton who always threw a pick. But your hate is appreciated.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:25 AM
That pass to James Jones was pretty freaking clutch anyway, whether it was halfway through the third or in the final 3 minutes of the game. The Packers were behind and then they never trailed. That has to count for something.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:27 AM
Hating on Tebow is the part of the new platform for the hipster movement.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:27 AM
Ironic that his first game is against a fish.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:27 AM
It appears as though I was wrong about Cam Newton, so I am going to hold on to my judgment of this Tebow kid until I see him play. On a side note, I bet he does better than Mcnabb.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:28 AM
And I bet you several markets with no rooting interest in two weeks will ask CBS to give them that game.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:28 AM
The Broncos will be like the Panthers: they will lose while being fun to watch.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:29 AM
Tebow had an incredibly small sample size luddites
But that’s the point Lisk is making. This QB Stat should be weighed down.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:30 AM
I think so many people hate him, that hipsters now claim to have loved him all along.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:31 AM
In general, if a new stat doesn’t illustrate something contrary to conventional wisdom, then the stat is worthless. That doesn’t mean this stat is worth a shit, but the fact that it shows *something* that goes against the grain is a POSITIVE.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:31 AM
At this point, that’s not difficult
October 11th, 2011 at 11:31 AM
Ha. That is how it would go down.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:31 AM
Eye Test > All other tests
Except the BCS, that shit is always right.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:32 AM
Speaking of the Broncos, this article makes one ask, “Really, NFL, really?”
October 11th, 2011 at 11:32 AM
But he hasn’t played in a year and a half so the hate has died down, thus the hipsters are claiming the hate.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:32 AM
We went through this with Danny Wuerffel. Everybody wants to pull for the nice Christian boy from Florida. They won’t admit that he doesn’t have the arm to pull it off because HE’S A WINNER!!!!!!! And then there’s the backlash.
I don’t think the hipsters hate Tebow as much as they hate the delusional fan base and the inordinate amount of attention he gets for being a mediocre but popular quarterback.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:33 AM
or impressive for that matter.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:35 AM
Speaking of the Broncos, this article makes one ask, “Really, NFL, really?”
“The two have been dating since 2009, and if Quinn’s thoughtfulness is any indication, it seems like they’re pretty serious.”
Oh for fucks sake.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:35 AM
Small sample size
October 11th, 2011 at 11:38 AM
So I guess that means instead of trying to parse out individual efforts we should throw up our hands and say, “Fuck it.”
Also, should be noted that on the year QBR has Sanchez as the 3rd worst QB in the league. So maybe it is onto something
October 11th, 2011 at 11:38 AM
this begs to differ
October 11th, 2011 at 11:38 AM
Heisman consideration. BCS games. Subway commercials. Hot girlfriends. Brady is the luckiest man in the history of the Earth.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:39 AM
Before Sunday he wasn’t mediocre or good… he was an unknown. And based on QBR and yesterday’s performance…. he’s now an unknown.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:39 AM
Then why are you so ignorant of them?
October 11th, 2011 at 11:40 AM
Wow, this post was an opportunity to take a shot at ESPN and Tim Tebow with one throw. Talk about a haters paradise.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:40 AM
Before Sunday he wasn’t mediocre or good
Didn’t he have a winning record last year? Honest question.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:41 AM
1-2 IIRC
October 11th, 2011 at 11:42 AM
I don’t think Tebow is a very good QB, but he’ll make Broncos’ games exciting. If nothing else that’s better
October 11th, 2011 at 11:42 AM
See comment 16. TBL said how bad QB rating is, but first and second on his list of how to measure a QB are YPA and Comp%, two stats which make up half of QB rating, along with the clearly unimportant TD and Int%
October 11th, 2011 at 11:43 AM
We went through this with Danny Wuerffel. Everybody wants to pull for the nice Christian boy from Florida. They won’t admit that he doesn’t have the arm to pull it off because HE’S A WINNER!!!!!!! And then there’s the backlash.
The Danny Wuerffel Era. Jeez!
October 11th, 2011 at 11:46 AM
I want to see Tebow succeed just to watch Merrill Hoge’s head explode.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:47 AM
acknowledging stats importance in baseball and being knowledgeable on them can in fact be mutually exclusive. I like watching baseball, I don’t like talking or even thinking about sabermetrics, because I’m a casual fan, not a gm.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:48 AM
Half of me wants tebow to exceed, the other half of me wants him to fail. But all of me wants ESPN to stop talking about him so goddamn much.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:49 AM
I don’t know. All I had to do was see Wuerffel throw passes compared to the other QBs in Saints camp to know that he didn’t stand a chance. Tebow may be a little better, arm-wise, but not much.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:50 AM
Awesome! So you finally agree Sanchez is an average to below average QB
2011 YPA:21st comp% 28th
2010 YPA:26th comp%:29th
2009 YPA:18th comp%:29th
October 11th, 2011 at 11:51 AM
Flip side for Tebow is that he can run which makes him more productive than Wuerffel, who could really do nothing well at the NFL level.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:51 AM
Fair enough….but you don’t run one of the premier sports blogs on the internets
October 11th, 2011 at 11:51 AM
Seriously. Why isn’t there a front page crusade for Charlie Whitehurst?
October 11th, 2011 at 11:51 AM
ZINGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
October 11th, 2011 at 11:53 AM
First virgin starting QB since Jared Lorenzen.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:55 AM
Top 8.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:56 AM
I don’t know. All I had to do was see Wuerffel throw passes compared to the other QBs in Saints camp to know that he didn’t stand a chance. Tebow may be a little better, arm-wise, but not much.
Tebow has an out Wuerffel never did: he can switch positions.
The question is: how long does he give this QB thing a go before common sense sinks in?
October 11th, 2011 at 11:58 AM
TBL is what he is, and he doesn’t pretend to know/care about more than he actually does. It may not be perfect, but that’s been pretty clear for a long time, and I doubt it will change.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:58 AM
I hate this criticism of the QBR stat by pulling out individual cases. I can do that with passer rating. Both are rate stats, not volume stats.
By passer rating, Rodgers was a little higher, but passer rating doesn’t including rushing results, while the QBR does.
Matt Cassel >>>>>> Aaron Rodgers (cc: passer rating)
October 11th, 2011 at 11:59 AM
This was the narrative spouted about for Cam Newton from the time he announced he was turning pro up to his first game. It was also the narrative spouted about Michael Vick from the time he left prison. The wait and see approach may just work.
October 11th, 2011 at 12:02 PM
This was the narrative spouted about for Cam Newton from the time he announced he was turning pro up to his first game. It was also the narrative spouted about Michael Vick from the time he left prison. The wait and see approach may just work.
Vick was different because Vick had a hell of an arm to go with his speed. The question for him was how to harness all his talents.
Newton is closer to Tebow, but I think he’s shown he can be a QB (for the moment at least).
I don’t have anything against Tebow. Far from it. I hope he does succeed. If for no other reason than he gave us Godzilla Biscuits.
October 11th, 2011 at 12:03 PM
He may be as athletic as those two, but the arm isn’t even close. The comparison should be to Byron Leftwich, but with less arm strength.
October 11th, 2011 at 12:05 PM
Heisman consideration. BCS games. Subway commercials. Hot girlfriends. Brady is the luckiest man in the history of the Earth.
…and he hasn’t had to win a thing. That in itself is talent.
/part of me is waiting for an “equal opportunity” group to put up a billboard asking for Brady to get his chance.
October 11th, 2011 at 12:07 PM
Leftwich had ZERO athletic ability and ZERO mobility. Horrible comparison.
October 11th, 2011 at 12:08 PM
talk about my stats!!! talk about my STATS!!!
October 11th, 2011 at 12:08 PM
Arm strength isn’t the problem. Accuracy is the problem. Taking a center snap is the problem. Tucking and running after read #1 is the problem.
All that said, he’d have to really work to suck worse than Orton did last Sunday.
October 11th, 2011 at 12:10 PM
They’re mirror images. Leftwich has no running ability, but a howitzer for an arm.
October 11th, 2011 at 12:10 PM
Ryan Fitzpatrick agrees. Look what happened when he got a shot from a front office tht wasn’t desperate (who probably just thought he would suck and they’d get Luck).
Damnit I hate agreeing with you though almost as much as I hate being on the same side of any argument as ATL_Badger
October 11th, 2011 at 12:14 PM
Damnit I hate agreeing with you though almost as much as I hate being on the same side of any argument as ATL_Badger
Because I’m always so irrational? Whatever man.
October 11th, 2011 at 12:16 PM
Because you’ll spend the next 15 minutes refreshing this page trying to start an argument.
October 11th, 2011 at 12:19 PM
Yeah. I know. The delivery is what I was eluding to, not the arm strength, hence the ‘with less arm strentgh’ qualification. If Byron Leftwhich had a better delivery, he probably wouldn’t have been a back up most of his career. Tebow has the delivery without the strength. Newton and Vick’s deliveries are fine, as is their arm strengths.
October 11th, 2011 at 12:24 PM
Maybe the better comparison would be brad smith, or Michael Robinson, or the many other great college quarterbacks who would be better at other positions.
Or maybe not, maybe he will be a good NFL quarterback. I don’t know, but with him I’m always devils advocate, because the people who champion him and hate him are equally abundant. No one knows, let’s just wait til he does something great or terrible.
October 11th, 2011 at 12:36 PM
Guarantee the BRoncos lose guys who are going to be free agents and won’t be able to lure some because they’re giving up on the season. You just told the team we’re going to play with an inferior QB who doesn’t have the mechanics or the background to play the pro game. I am a pissed off Broncos fan today.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they did well for a week or two then teams figure Tebow out and go back to Orton (or go to Quinn if they trade Orton).
October 11th, 2011 at 12:40 PM
mcgahee is my boy
October 11th, 2011 at 12:40 PM
This sentence would make me weep for Broncos fans, if I wasn’t holding a grudge for all the 35-3 beatdowns of the Pats in mid-90′s
October 11th, 2011 at 12:43 PM
Denver hasn’t been a destination free agent spot in years, and honestly, that’s not the way this needs to play out. Draft, draft, draft.
I was as big an Orton supporter as any, but this team is 1-4 and heading into a year where there could be 3 QBs in the Top 10. Gotta have an accurate assessment of your own personnel. We all know what KO is (and to a lesser extent, BQ).
October 11th, 2011 at 12:46 PM
How is it giving up on the season when you change from a quarterback who clearly couldn’t do the job? It’s not like Orton has started just 5 games for the team. Since the smoke and mirrors start of 6-0 a few years ago, the Broncos gone 6-23 when Orton starts.
It’s not the franchise throwing in the towel, it’s them actually trying to do something different because the old way sure as shit wasn’t working.
October 11th, 2011 at 12:50 PM
If ESPN says the stat is not too be used in small sample sizes, why were they scrolling it with Week 5 QBR ratings?
October 11th, 2011 at 12:50 PM
/Shudders
//So cold. So so cold
October 12th, 2011 at 9:45 AM
Triston27, the only Bronco player who came out in support of Tebow was Brandon Lloyd. I’ve read stories that Denver players anonymously told reporters they wanted Orton. Yeah it’s not working, but do you really see them scoring more with Tebow? Do you think, after two weeks, he won’t be putting up stats Orton did last week? He’s not an NFL QB and will never be.
What about Quinn? If he’s the #2, why isn’t he starting? I’d feel more comfortable, as a Broncos fan, with Quinn in at starter.
Gerard, you are correct, they need to draft well. But what if they lose their own (good) players to Free Agency because of this?
I’ll admit, part of this is sour grapes because I’m used to Denver being in playoff spot contention every year. I’m not used to losing and Top 5 draft picks. I think Tebow has heart and works hard as hell and he’s a good role model and all, but he won’t succeed at the NFL level at QB. If he’s willing to be a TE/H-back and come in for trick plays, then I’d love him. But I hope he tanks, they let him go after this year and get a real NFL QB.
October 17th, 2011 at 4:56 PM
Tebow scored an 83.2. Rodgers checked in at 82.1. Tebow, playing at home, lost; Rodgers, playing on the road, won. Stats!
Ummm…the Broncos won the second half….the only half that Tebow played. Yes Stats!