According to a probability expert, the 2004 Yankees had a 93.75% chance of beating the Red Sox in that series after winning the first three games. The Red Sox had a 99.6% chance of making it to the playoffs at the beginning of Sept. 2011.

Source: http://www.waswatching.com/archives/2007/10/2004_yankees_vs.html

it’s certainly a good measurement tool, but not as accurate as you make it out to be.

i’ll admit this statement is completely inaccurate. i was caught up in the TBL’s claim that Mo was the best ever and emotionally detached from reason.

so replacement = shit?

if you think anyone besides Cy Young is the greatest pitcher in MLB history, you’re wrong.

seems funny coming from the same person that wrote this:

all you stat nerds do it point fingers with your chin in the air.

so i throw a couple good seasons early in my career – get my WAR up – then quit at the pinnacle, i could be known as one of the greatest pitchers evAr?!?! got it…

No, that isn’t how WAR works b/c as many before me have stated, it is a counting stat.

e.g.

WAR again is a counting stat. The more you play, as long as you are good, the higher your WAR can be. Just like the more games you pitch, the more strike outs or wins or walks you will have.

You can go out and throw up a 5 ERA and still actively increase your WAR.

The bar to increase your WAR is: be slightly better than shit.

all you stat nerds do it point fingers with your chin in the air.

Probably because, as you just did here, people fail to properly understand or comprehend progress, stubbornly stick to a narrative that has been proven false, and rely on patently inferior tools.

all you stat nerds do it point fingers with your chin in the air. are your stats useful? sure. but if you think their an absolute science, you’re mistaken.

Whoa! Stats! Nicely done TBL

Don’t encourage him. I’d rather him ignore stats than the inevitable abuse of them that will follow.

Columbus Clippers, Akron Aeros, Kinston Indians, and Lake County Captains are the Tribe’s AAA, AA, High A, and Low A teams.

That was my initial reaction a couple of weeks ago until someone reminded me that it’s a Naked Gun reference.

ahem.

Who cares about WAR?. You don’t pitch to increase your WAR, you get up on the mound to strike that motherfucker out.

“You don’t pitch to decrease your ERA, you pitch to strike that motherfucker out.”

“You don’t throw a pass to increase your yards per attempt, you throw a pass to get a first down.”

Other things you could have said that make sense, but nonetheless are silly to say when it comes down to knowing who was better.

I would have guessed the disparity was MUCH larger.

I think a lot of people get turned off by how long the baseball season is though. You’re talking about a sport that people need to follow every day to be good at.

There’s around 12 million active Fantasy baseball compared to 35 million active fantasy football.

I would have guessed the disparity was MUCH larger.

I personally like FBB over FFB a lot more. The fact that it is everyday and that there is an ever increasing player pool to pay attention to through out the season makes it much more active than FFB for me.

LOL, i was a deadbeat FFB owner last year, i can only imagine how bad i’d be at FBB.

Otherwise I would have had no clue who the fuck Desmond Jennings was.

If you do dynasty/prospects, you should’ve known about Jennings about three years ago.

The bar to increase your WAR is: be slightly better than shit.

Hence, Wins Above Replacement.