Bigger MLB Collapse: Yankees in the 2004 ALCS or Red Sox in the 2011 Season?
The easy way out: the postseason matters more, DEFINITELY has to be the Yankees in 2004! Before you answer …
Number that may change your mind: 99.6%. That’s what Boston’s chances were to lock up a postseason berth on September 3 with 24 games left in the season, leading the Rays by nine games. Another staggering number: 95.6%. According to Fangraphs, that’s what Boston’s chances were Wednesday night in the ninth inning, leading the Orioles with two out and nobody on base.
The ridiculous numbers keep on coming. From Nate Silver:
Trailing 7-0 in the 8th inning, the Rays’ winning chances were all the way down to 0.3 percent — about 300-to-1 against — before they scored 6 runs in the bottom of the inning.
This set of numbers will probably lead Red Sox fans to drink heavily all winter:
The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3.
The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play.
The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike.
The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike.Multiply those four probabilities together, and you get a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of all these events coming together in quite this way.
Yes, the 2004 ALCS collapse was epic. The Yankees led the series 3-0, and were up a run in the bottom of the ninth inning with the greatest relief pitcher in MLB history looking to lock down the series and send the Yankees back to the World Series (they lost in 2003 to the Marlins). But Boston was at home. The Yankees and Red Sox were 1-2 in payroll. And the Yankees, best I can tell, were never at 99% to win the series.
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September 29th, 2011 at 12:50 PM
Nice try, TBL, but it’s the Yankees in my mind. You have a 3-0 lead, against your hated rivals, to go to the World Series, and you lose? That’s a bigger choke.
Also, fuck the Yankees.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:51 PM
Whoa! Stats! Nicely done TBL
September 29th, 2011 at 12:53 PM
This. Redsox collapse this year is ultimately a footnote to the entire season. The 2004 comeback against the Yankees is the biggest story of that year.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:53 PM
TBL…do you just write verifiably wrong shit just to start stuff? You do realize that a relief pitcher will never, ever, ever be the best pitcher in baseball history.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:54 PM
Also, earlier someone mentioned Sutcliffe referencing Papelbon’s eyes…Posnanski discusses this
September 29th, 2011 at 12:54 PM
link?
September 29th, 2011 at 12:54 PM
I gotta vote on the Yankees. I’m a Yankee hater, true, but I believe it was the first 3-0 deficit overcame.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:54 PM
Yankees ’04 >>>>>>>>> Red Sox ’11 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mets ’07
September 29th, 2011 at 12:54 PM
moderation.
The Redsox collapse this year is ultimately a footnote to the entire season. The 2004 comeback against the Yankees is the biggest story of that year. So clearly its the skanks.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:54 PM
Whoops, glossed right over this gem….yikes.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:54 PM
This sentence is so full of fail, I don’t know where to start.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:55 PM
the greatest pitcher in MLB history
are you fucking serious?!?!
if you think anyone besides Cy Young is the greatest pitcher in MLB history, you’re wrong. ESPECIALLY, in a post that uses nothing but numbers to prove a point.
Cy Young stats.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:56 PM
The September collapse is more painful because it stretches out over 4 weeks. But the 3-0 collapse is a bigger choke.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:57 PM
this is what happens when the primary source of your baseball knowledge comes from a combination of the NY Post and ESPN highlights.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:57 PM
In terms of probabilities, yeah, this collapse was more unlikely. But what Sox fan would ever trade the 2004 ALCS comeback for somehow ensuring this September didn’t happen?
September 29th, 2011 at 12:57 PM
The September collapse is more painful because it stretches out over 4 weeks. But the 3-0 collapse is a bigger choke.
I agree with this. Especially since all the Yankees had to do was win one more game and that series is over.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:58 PM
Biggest collapse in the North East since the Two Towers.
/Joins Husker in Hell
//Last thread
September 29th, 2011 at 12:58 PM
yankees.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:58 PM
It will always ALWAYS be 2004 Yankees. They won Game 3 19-8 for gods sake and somehow lost the series.
I honestly think this is overplayed. How many September collapses have we seen in the past few years now? ’07 Mets, ’09 Tigers, ’05 Indians… it seems to happen more than “99.8%” would indicate.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:58 PM
And yet that is only his second biggest fail job in the post season.
/hits flare to center
September 29th, 2011 at 12:58 PM
the greatest pitcher in MLB history
…………….
September 29th, 2011 at 12:58 PM
It’s not the same. Losing a 3-game lead in the playoffs is difficult to do but one of the repeated difficulties about the playoffs is that you’re facing the same team over and over — your strengths and weaknesses against the other team get exposed.
The Red Sox didn’t lose to just one team or to a set of good teams (like the Rangers and Yankees) but they lost to the A’s, Mariners, Blue Jays and Orioles — teams they should have beaten.
That makes it worse.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:59 PM
And for what it’s worth, if you assume the Yankees in that series were 50% to win games 5, 6 and 7, then the lowest the Red Sox were to win the series was 2%. After the last out in the eighth of game 4, they were 18% to win the game. .18x(.5^3)=.02
September 29th, 2011 at 1:00 PM
God I hate Papelbon and his stupid phony monster-faces. I can’t believe people REALLY buy into that garbage.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:00 PM
I’m guessing that with the lead in game 4 in the bottom of the 9th with (If I remember correctly) Rivera on the mound, they have to be at 99.999999999999999%
But that’s just me.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:00 PM
Also, despite Simmons’ insistance that he can will a team to victory, there doesn’t appear to be any advantage to being at home.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:00 PM
Surely TBL just forgot the word “relief”. Surely.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:01 PM
i think you just made your case there.
you’re talking about winning the AL pennant versus winning the AL wildcard.
not only did the yankees have 4 more games to close it out, they also had leads going into the 9th in 2 of them, they also had the clincher at home, where they choked on their own dicks.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:01 PM
My best friend and I during college were the only ones cheering when this happened.
/forever the Yankees are full of fail
//Let’s go Tigers!
September 29th, 2011 at 1:01 PM
I disagree with how Silver is using his numbers to say there was a 1 in 278 million chance of events coming together in this way. He’s basically taking something from a month ago (which includes the remote possibility of a collapse) and multiplying it by other events that happened at various times.
If you want to know how improbable it was, stick to one specific point in time, and find the most improbable. But don’t triple count.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:01 PM
Some funny math there. You can’t separately calculate the probability of what happened last night and then multiply it against the Red Sox’s chances at the beginning of the month, as what happened last night, as unlikely as it was, would have been part of that probability of the Red Sox blowing it if you calculated it from the beginning of the month.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:02 PM
Yankees. No bones about it.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:02 PM
Wow
September 29th, 2011 at 1:02 PM
But what is the p-factor?
/WWoS
September 29th, 2011 at 1:03 PM
AssaultWithAConcreteDildo
Wow
That was my initial reaction a couple of weeks ago until someone reminded me that it’s a Naked Gun reference. Now it’s just funny.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:03 PM
This isn’t quite as dumb as saying it is Mo Rivera, but it’s close. You can’t really say it is someone who spent a good part of their career pitching from 50 feet. And the rest of their career in an era where someone can with the Triple Crown hitting 9 HRs.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:04 PM
This isn’t quite as dumb as saying it is Mo Rivera, but it’s close. You can’t really say it is someone who spent a good part of their career pitching from 50 feet. And the rest of their career in an era where someone can with the Triple Crown hitting 9 HRs.
This right here.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:04 PM
Dan “Fucking” Johnson?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:04 PM
But 100% of the time before this instance, teams with a 3-0 lead in a baseball playoff series went on to win the series. The Yankees collapse was bigger. Especially since the Red Sox went on to win the World Series.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:06 PM
Anyone can have a four game losing streak. The Red Sox had the best record in the American League on August 31. That’s a much bigger gag.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:06 PM
wondering why this post doesn’t have the “Kind of Gay” tag.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:07 PM
Hey, guys, fuck both the Yankees AND Red Sox, amirite?
/Orioles Magic!
September 29th, 2011 at 1:07 PM
TBL writing about baseball is like asking for my opinion on major network tv shows. I don’t watch them.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:08 PM
and no one but the yankees have had a 4 game losing streak after a 3 game winning streak in a best of 7 series.
as someone said before, 100% of the time a team up 3-0 in a best of 7 series wins the series.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:09 PM
/Braves try to slink out the back door without being noticed in this discussion
September 29th, 2011 at 1:09 PM
Not to mention Cy Young’s career ERA+ is tied for 17th all-time. And 867th in k’s/9. And 37th in WHIP.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:10 PM
This isn’t quite as dumb as saying it is Mo Rivera, but it’s close. You can’t really say it is someone who spent a good part of their career pitching from 50 feet. And the rest of their career in an era where someone can with the Triple Crown hitting 9 HRs.
if you don’t want to compare the two, then fine, take that route. But compare Young’s numbers against the other players of his time and tell me he wasn’t dominant, more so than any pitcher of this era (you could argue nolan ryan).
September 29th, 2011 at 1:10 PM
The clown gets it.
Those percentages all falling into place the way they did last night – wow. What a fantastic night of baseball.
And the whole “He won’t lose this game!” and “I knew he’d blown this game!” from Sutcliffe and Posnanski is stupid.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:11 PM
(you could argue nolan ryan).
You are only digging yourself into a bigger hole with that gem
September 29th, 2011 at 1:12 PM
Michael Strahan is the best defensive end ever due to the sack record!
/same rationale..
September 29th, 2011 at 1:12 PM
Seriously?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:12 PM
“Anyone” has never blown a 3-0 series lead in baseball history. After scoring 19 runs in Game 3.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:13 PM
The thing I love about people in the northeast (Yankees and Red Sox fans) is that you guys know absolutely jack shit about the game of baseball. And yet, because your teams spend a combined half billion dollars a year on player salaries, you have such a sense of entitlement when it comes to a game where even the best teams lose 35-40% of the time. And when you guys fail, it is just glorious for everyone else.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:13 PM
Read Pos’ article please
September 29th, 2011 at 1:13 PM
And everyone in Atlanta took off their Braves gear and put back on their Mike Vick jerseys.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:14 PM
Pedro is his prime is the best pitcher I’ve ever witnessed.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:14 PM
Biggest collapse in the North East since the Two Towers.
I hope the Tigers wreck the Yankees worse than Vladimir Konstantinov.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:14 PM
Not to mention Cy Young’s career ERA+ is tied for 17th all-time. And 867th in k’s/9. And 37th in WHIP.
he also pitched in stadiums, not the sandbox’s these guys play in today. much more area to cover.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:14 PM
Good point. the Yankees had lost 4 in a row earlier during that season. Three of which were to the Red Sox. It’s not that the Yankees choked, it’s that the Sox were simply superior.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:15 PM
I think the Yankees blowing two late leads in the series tilts the conversation in their favor…it would have been one thing to just get taken out by a better team but they had that series by the balls multiple times at Fenway before rolling over back at the Stadium
September 29th, 2011 at 1:15 PM
i’ll add “relief” to best pitcher. that one’s on me.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:15 PM
The thing I love about people in the northeast (Yankees and Red Sox fans) is that you guys know absolutely jack shit about the game of baseball.
Gotta love that broad-brush
September 29th, 2011 at 1:16 PM
Yeah, Yankees and Red Sox fans have no clue what it was like back in the 70s and 80s when payrolls weren’t high and the teams weren’t always that good. Nope. No clue about how baseball really works.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:16 PM
As a Yankee fan I’ll admit it’s 04 Yanks cuz it was playoffs.
(I’ll never forgive Torre for some of his moves or non-moves in that series, still blame him the most)
However, in order to choke in the ALCS, you have to make the playoffs which partly would entail not blowing a 9 games lead in 4 weeks so….
September 29th, 2011 at 1:17 PM
Touche. Fuck you.
Konstantinov.Legend.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:17 PM
Not to mention Cy Young’s career ERA+ is tied for 17th all-time. And 867th in k’s/9. And 37th in WHIP.
No is going to get close to his 511 wins in your or your grandkids’ lifetime. So there’s that.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:17 PM
wait, so now we’re arguing that Cy Young was great, but not that great?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:17 PM
This right here.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:17 PM
Link?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:18 PM
ERA+ accounts for this
September 29th, 2011 at 1:18 PM
so… who’s going to be the leader and use their nifty, complex stats to prove who the best pitcher really is then? or are we just going to play the role of spoiler?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:18 PM
That explains games 4 and 5, but what about 6 and 7? Yankees choked twice in their own stadium.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:18 PM
It’s reaching the right level of subtle hostility around here. I like it.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:18 PM
he also pitched in stadiums, not the sandbox’s these guys play in today. much more area to cover.
Covered by aforementioned ERA+
September 29th, 2011 at 1:19 PM
Well Old Hoss Radbourn went 59-12 in 1884 with a 1.38 ERA, plus he is still around to give his opinions about what’s happening in baseball.
But seriously, Christy Mathewson had better numbers than Cy Young and any one of a shit ton of pitchers were better than Nolan Ryan. He is the king of overrated pitchers.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:20 PM
Walter Johnson gets my vote for greatest pitcher of all time. I’m not a stat geek though so I am actually interested in that getting torn apart.
Seriously. I am.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:20 PM
How about the Bucco’s mid summer collapse?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:20 PM
Yankees fail was on a bigger stage for higher stakes.
Red Sox fail was stretched out over the course of a month, but for lesser stakes.
It’s like the difference between dying in a high speed car crash or dying of asphyxiation from exhaust fumes in your car.
I can remember rooting against the Yankees in ’04 because many of my co-workers, at the time, were Yankee fans. Rooting against the Yanks was the one thing that could bring together the Phillies fans and Mets fans in my office.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:20 PM
Boston coming back 0-3 on the Yanks was a good story. Boston collapsing in September is INCONCEIVABLE!
September 29th, 2011 at 1:20 PM
I don’t think many people will like the answer.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:21 PM
The Yankees started Jon Lieber and Kevin Brown is what happened…so it will be like this year when Freddie Garcia or Colon is called on to start an elimination game
September 29th, 2011 at 1:21 PM
Pack sand Fuck-Face.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:21 PM
Probably one of Pedro (for peak), Walter Johnson, or Lefty Grove. That’s if you are removing Clemens for PED use (which is probably a bad idea)
September 29th, 2011 at 1:21 PM
I love everything about comment #31
September 29th, 2011 at 1:21 PM
The Yanks did pitch Jon Leiber and Kevin Brown in games 6-7, and if I recall Torre called on Vazquez to replace Brown with bases juiced in the 2nd, when I believe Damon already had hit a grand slam off Vazquez that year.
Damn you Torre!!!
September 29th, 2011 at 1:21 PM
Robin Ventura, is that you?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:22 PM
The thing I love about people in the northeast (Yankees and Red Sox fans) is that you guys know absolutely jack shit about the game of baseball. And yet, because your teams spend a combined half billion dollars a year on player salaries, you have such a sense of entitlement when it comes to a game where even the best teams lose 35-40% of the time. And when you guys fail, it is just glorious for everyone else.
I might have to almost say the opposite is true. Now granted they are not found on this site, but I have met a ton of guys from that area who know more stats and history about baseball than I have ever met. BUT this information does tend to be mostly about their own team, yet they still are very knowledgeable about the game as a whole.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:22 PM
That’s the answer no one would like.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:22 PM
So hard to compare. Pitchers were basically throwing glorified batting practices back then, which is why they were able to start 60 games a year.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:22 PM
The fashion in which Boston actually got eliminated from playoff contention is more crushing than how the Yankees lost that ALCS. To have everything fall apart in a span of 3 minutes and do so in a way that only the Red Sox and Cubs could be done in by. That’s crushing.
The Yanks still get my vote as “bigger collapse” though.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:22 PM
I’m a homer on this question, but if you told me that my team eitehr had One shot to win 1 of 4 againts the best team in baseball or win one more than 1 of 4 against random competition over the course of an entire month, I think I would feel safer with the latter. Don’t know how you couldn’t.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:22 PM
Roy Hobbs would of been the greatest pitcher and hitter of all time if that bitch didn’t shoot him.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:22 PM
After living in Boston for over 5 years, I can assure you, the majority of both fan bases know dick about baseball. To hear Sox fans complain about offense (They scored more runs than anybody) makes me want to puke.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:23 PM
He was a total beast.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:23 PM
We can argue over a handful of names, but I assure you Nolan Ryan is not among them.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:24 PM
Agreed. Strikeout and no-hitter records are about as yawn-worthy as it gets.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:25 PM
Nolan Ryan. He is the king of overrated pitchers.
huh? Run that by me again.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:25 PM
it’s always great comparing stats between the dead ball, pre free swing era and the “live ball” free swing, aim for the fences era.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:26 PM
After living in Boston for over 5 years, I can assure you, the majority of both fan bases know dick about baseball. To hear Sox fans complain about offense (They scored more runs than anybody) makes me want to puke.
Because anecdotal evidence is FACT.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:27 PM
7 no-hitters being overrated doesn’t make sense to me. I hate that word.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:27 PM
Stinks like poindexter masturbation in here.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:27 PM
Yeah, I guess your right, Mary and Suzie in accounting can’t give the ins and outs of a double switch.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:29 PM
Everyone know Sidd Finch was the best pitcher ever.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:29 PM
they weren’t pitching knuckleballs.
and they pitched 60 times a year b/c it was them and 2 or sometimes 3 other guys in the rotation.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:30 PM
In 1983 Ryan had 383 Strikeouts. 383. That is a shitload of strikeouts for an overrated guy
September 29th, 2011 at 1:31 PM
They mainly pitched to contact and let their fielders do the work. They didn’t go max effort every pitch like nowadays. The reduced stress allowed them to pitch more frequently, thus allowing smaller rotations.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:31 PM
Where do you think Nolan Ryan lists in all time best pitchers?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:31 PM
Nolan Ryan’s been called overrated so much over the last few years that he’s now somehow underrated…if more people try saying that he’s one of the best 5 or so ever however I’m sure the pendulum will swing back to the other side
September 29th, 2011 at 1:32 PM
guy – those collapses were a week or two. maybe 3. THIS WAS A MONTH
September 29th, 2011 at 1:32 PM
Behind Strasburg.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:33 PM
Here’s a fun fact. Despite throwing 400 fewer innings, Bert Blyleven’s career WAR is higher than Nolan Ryan’s.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:34 PM
Nolan Ryan = freak of nature arm, but basically a compiler
September 29th, 2011 at 1:34 PM
guy – those collapses were a week or two. maybe 3. THIS WAS A MONTH
So doesn’t that kinda diminish it a bit? Don’t you also have to take into account that the other team was playing well? It’s not like the Rays limped in. They had to also play well to overtake the Red Sox.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:34 PM
Well which is worse, slowly losing a lead, or completely blowing it very quickly?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:35 PM
I think the thing with Ryan is that he’s so well known that people often cite him in the “greatest pitcher ever” discussion, which is where the overrated thing comes in. He’s definitely an all-time great, but the no-hitters don’t make up for his deficits compared to other guys elsewhere.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:35 PM
They HAD to beat Boston in 6 out of 7 games in the last 2 weeks and they did. Any less and this doesnt happen.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:35 PM
Anecdotal evidence part II:
Having lived in New England and Texas, my opinion is that New Englanders were much more educated about baseball than people down here. Basketball, too.
Football, of course, is another story.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:36 PM
And Blyleven’s shutouts are truly an amazing accomplishment. Ryan’s no-hitters are amazing in their own right, but Blyleven’s are more indicative of him as a pitcher than Ryan’s no hitters are of him.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:37 PM
TBL, us Yankee fans were enjoying our day just fine before you had to drudge up 2004.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:37 PM
Look, just because you know a lot about your team, doesn’t make you a particularly educated baseball fan. Ask the majority of Sox and Yanks fans about anything else happening in the MLB and they are usually pretty clueless.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:37 PM
Heat or the Sox. Who failed to live up to expectations more?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:38 PM
Here’s a fun fact. Despite throwing 400 fewer innings, Bert Blyleven’s career WAR is higher than Nolan Ryan’s.
The less innings you throw makes it easier to up your WAR ratio. So with 400 innings, that’s a minimum of 1200 batters that Blyleven didn’t have to face. Say he threw 6 pitches per 1200 batters, that’s 7200 fewer chances that a ball didn’t go over the fence or through the defense. If you are going to use stats to back up your asinine argument, then use a better one.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:38 PM
I love the Harold Reynolds photo up top.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:38 PM
The Heat came within two wins of a championship. The Sox didn’t come within two rounds of the championship
September 29th, 2011 at 1:38 PM
so that would make the week or 2 collapse more staggering, no?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:39 PM
Adam Dunn.
/butters
September 29th, 2011 at 1:39 PM
WAR is not a ratio. It is a counting stat. So before you come up with a rebuttal, know something about the stats you argue.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:39 PM
I dunno, Htown. Were you able to meet every sports fan living in Maine, NH, VT, MA, CT, and RI like Colonel Parker up there?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:39 PM
pkiguy22, pardon me, but what the heck are you talking about?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:39 PM
Well, to be fair, most baseball fans aren’t familiar with their teams respective farm systems.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:40 PM
Nolan Ryan, most difficult pitcher to hit in baseball history. If he could have struck out all those batters without giving up so many walks, he’d definitely deserve consideration of best all-time. As it is we can still marvel at all those K’s and no-hitters.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:41 PM
Ask the majority of Sox and Yanks fans about anything else happening in the MLB and they are usually pretty clueless.
I think this is true of most fans. I bet I know more about the Twins than spencer does, and I bet he knows more about the Indians than I do. I am just saying that to lump North East fans as dumb outside of baseball is just dumb. The average fan today knows more about the Yankees and Sox because ESPN and other media outlets talk about them a lot. You are bound to pick up more information on them vs a team like KC or Houston.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:42 PM
Look, just because you know a lot about your team, doesn’t make you a particularly educated baseball fan. Ask the majority of Sox and Yanks fans about anything else happening in the MLB and they are usually pretty clueless.
But all Dodgers fans compile their own Top 10 lists of Twins’ prospects
September 29th, 2011 at 1:43 PM
….huh?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:43 PM
Then why does Mariano Rivera only have a 56.3 WAR?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:43 PM
I like this.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:44 PM
Sure, but if you just stood there with the bat on your shoulders, he’d probably walk you.
In 2004, the Sox were at ~50% favorite in each game. So there’s a 6.25% chance they win four straight. Couple that with what we know about game 3 with Mariano on the mound, and it’s safe to conclude the Yankees were damn close to a 99% favorite in that series at some point. And they “choked.” And it was the playoffs. Bigger choke? Probably.
/Still fuck Boston and those Shaughnessy-wannabes
September 29th, 2011 at 1:44 PM
Fixed* they know baseball, they are just assholes.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:44 PM
OK. I admit it. To lump every NE baseball fan into one nebulous statement is stupid. In general, most people I talked to knew very little besides what the media was feeding them in regards to baseball.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:46 PM
This also factors into the discussion. Say what you want about the Sox being down 0-3, but they were essentially even with the Yankees all year long. The Sox were expected to be “the greatest team EVAH!!!” and blew a 9 game lead to a team with 1/4 the payroll.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:46 PM
Did someone say overrated?
/dice-k’d
September 29th, 2011 at 1:46 PM
Quite true, honestly can anybody here without going to wiki name the low A, high A, AA and AAA affiliates of their MLB team?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:46 PM
pkiguy22, pardon me, but what the heck are you talking about?
dude said the WAR for Ryan was less than Blyleven and Bert threw 400 less innings. I was showing that at a minimum Ryan faced more batters and threw more pitches. Thus skewing the WAR argument. The more times you go out there, the more chances you have at lowering your WAR value.
What am I missing here?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:47 PM
Pawtucket, Lowell, Greenville, and Portland? in some order?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:47 PM
People are just more sports-conscious up there, in general. We actually have four sports talk radio stations in Houston, but combined they don’t pull half the ratings that WEEI does.
When I was growing up the Red Sox were in everyone’s consciousness. Every grandmother would know who Marty Barrett, Oil Can Boyd or Doug Griffin were. That doesn’t make them educated fans, but the Sox were definitely much more in the public consciousness than are the Astros or Rangers. I’m sure things have changed, but in my visits back I still get the sense that it’s a much more sports-centered culture.
I would bet your average Houstonian can’t name a single Astro right now…not even Carlos Lee or Wandy Rodriguez.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:47 PM
Then why does Mariano Rivera only have a 56.3 WAR?
Starters and Relievers have different formulas when factoring this stat out.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:49 PM
Go to a sports bar in Boston or New York. Ask a person if they are a baseball fan. Then ask if they know who Mike Stanton is. Will they say a. an old reliever who used to pitch for the Yankees, b. a 21 year old who hit over 30 home runs this year or c. Go Fuck yourself? I bet B. trails both by a long shot. It has nothing to do with knowing random shit about other team’s farm systems. It’s just that most Sox and Yanks fans think the baseball world revolves around them and they are the only thing happening.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:50 PM
San Jose Giants, Augusta Greenjackets, Fresno Grizzlies.
That’s all I got, know I’m missing some.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:50 PM
Agreed. Even non sports fans up there know whats going on. My mom and sister dont care but they know exactly whats happening with the sports teams. I just had to explain to my female coworker what happened last night after 4 guys have come over to me offering condolences today. It’s different here.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:50 PM
I know the Phillies low A is Batavia Muckdogs because that’s where I used to live.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:51 PM
Everything. WAR again is a counting stat. The more you play, as long as you are good, the higher your WAR can be. Just like the more games you pitch, the more strike outs or wins or walks you will have. Is that really that hard to comprehend?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:51 PM
Miracle, Rock Cats, and Red Wings.
I think there might be two rock cats for the twins though.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:51 PM
I only know the AA and AAA affiliates and just assume all the players there are bad until proven otherwise since they usually are
/Fire Kenny
September 29th, 2011 at 1:52 PM
WAR is a counting stat. More innings=better. Unless you’re horrible in those extra innings and you end up with a negative WAR.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:52 PM
Lakewood, Clearwater, Reading, Lehigh Valley….
/might have Lakewood and Clearwater mixed up, though, in terms of hierarchy.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:53 PM
Everything. WAR again is a counting stat. The more you play, as long as you are good, the higher your WAR can be.
But the fact that Wins is counted in there is detrimental and thus should never be the end all be all of saying someone is overrated.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:53 PM
I know the Dodgers have the Great Lake Loons, Inland Empire 66ers, Chattanooga Lookouts, Albuquerque Isotopes.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:54 PM
Cubs, DiamondJaxx, Smokies and Cubs.
We’re real original with our minor league names. I have MiLB.tv now too. I watch some of the Smokies games. But it’s not often or anything.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:54 PM
In the other two sports that have best of 7 series, teams have come back from down 3-0. So, it was inevitable that at some time it would happen in baseball. Along those lines, the odds would highly favor it happening to the Yankees, as they are for, the last 90 years, in the post-season far, far more than any other team.
Accordingly, the odds are they will experience the highest highs and the lowest lows. And regarding the Red Sox two championships this century, that is their quota for this millennium. The curse is back.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:54 PM
Wins are not in the calculation for WAR. Where do you get any of this shit?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Frankly, go to any sports bar in America and you’ll get this. There are a large amount of ‘ESPN’ sports fans out there, bub.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Topes lose…Topes lose….Topes lose…
September 29th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Nope, you got it. Lakewood is low A, Clearwater is high A. You ever been to Clearwater? Great park, I hope I can go back to ST next year.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Not being rude, but you just don’t understand what WAR is and how it works.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Man….what in the world are you talking about
September 29th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Would you be pissed at Indy fans if you asked about Anthony Gonzalez, and they started talking about their WR and not the HOF TE?
September 29th, 2011 at 1:56 PM
oh boy.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:56 PM
My favorite minor league team name is the Montgomery Biscuits.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:56 PM
Baseball is to New England as Football is to Texas. People care more.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:57 PM
Just post this next time.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:57 PM
Mudhens!
September 29th, 2011 at 1:57 PM
Who besides Tony Gonzalez’s mom calls him “Anthony?”
September 29th, 2011 at 1:57 PM
I am just saying that outside of the Yanks and Sox in the Northeast, the baseball universe gets very small. Knowing your team does not really make you that much of a baseball fan.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:58 PM
Well. Maybe. I know what you’re trying to say. Those people aren’t “baseball fans”, per se. They are “Yankees fans”. Or “Red Soxs fans”. I think that’s OK though. I doubt those people claim to know every prospect on every team or know how to calculate WAR or even know (or care) who Bill James is.
I think some of that goes back to what information that they consume, as fans.
If all you care about is the Red Sox, you probably read the Boston sports pages and maybe listen to WEEI. And those sources will talk nothing but Sox. Which is smart, because it’s serving their market. And there’s nothing wrong with that, if you’re a fan.
I consider myself a baseball fan (and not just a Phils fans) but I can’t claim to know every hot shot young player on every team. I have a full time job and I’m a parent….I simply don’t have time to read that much and nor do I frankly care about it.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:58 PM
/smashes head into keyboard
Blame ESPN for beating into us the Yanks-Red Sox. Perhaps if they actually broadcast games from KC, Seattle, Colorado, Tampa, Cincy more often, the general population more. And Baseball Tonight would actually show full box scores like they used to would help.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:59 PM
I like the newly formed Richmond Flying Squirrels
September 29th, 2011 at 1:59 PM
Just making a point that what he said applies to any city. It’s like being angry that local sports radio only talks about the local sports teams.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:59 PM
Not being rude, but you just don’t understand what WAR is and how it works.
No you’re not being rude. I actually that WAR included wins in the formula. I am trying to find both formulas right now.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:00 PM
Just looked it up, I got 3 out of 5 right…
Salem-Keizer Volcanoes…Augusta Greenjackets…San Jose Giants…Richmond Flying Squirrels…Fresno Grizzlies
September 29th, 2011 at 2:00 PM
Italic fail
September 29th, 2011 at 2:00 PM
MLB Network has helped people become more cognizant of the other aspects of baseball. MLB.tv too, but you gotta pay a decent buck for that. I’ve learned more about baseball in the last 3 years having MLB.tv and MLB Network than I ever did in the 90s or early 2000s.
I mean, I actually sit around and watch Mariners games in the summer. I watched Dustin Ackley’s first 8 games this year just because I saw everything on Twitter about him.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:01 PM
Quite true, honestly can anybody here without going to wiki name the low A, high A, AA and AAA affiliates of their MLB team?
Kansas City, Washington, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
/Yankee fans
September 29th, 2011 at 2:01 PM
/high fives CJ
September 29th, 2011 at 2:01 PM
I agree with you that ESPN is at fault a bit for this, but they are responding to their market. It was painful listening to the Simmons podcast with SVP about how they think baseball is becoming a dead sport.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:01 PM
These are 95% of baseball fans, and i’m probably on the low end there. Baseball is not a national sport like the NFL where you’ll sit and watch Texans-Colts in Chicago. Yes there are “baseball fans” who are really into the sport that they’ll watch games not involving their own team but they represent a dwindlign minority.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:02 PM
My buddy that lives in the Bay Area says these are really fun games to go to. Cheap beer, cheap tickets, fun atmosphere. I wish there was a minor league team close to the city. I grew up practically next to the Kane County Cougars stadium. Minor league games are great when you’re a youngun. Run the bases, free stuff, on field entertainment during inning breaks.
I know CJ goes to a lot of Reading games. I’m sure others go to minor league games too.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:02 PM
Bra-vo, well played
September 29th, 2011 at 2:03 PM
Well done.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:03 PM
That right here made me laugh.
And the biggest fans of baseball are fantasy baseball players. They can name starting lineups of any team at gunpoint if need be.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:03 PM
You can go out and throw up a 5 ERA and still actively increase your WAR.
The bar to increase your WAR is: be slightly better than shit.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:03 PM
pkiguy — Here you go: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/
September 29th, 2011 at 2:04 PM
30 minutes away from me and I have been to 0 games ever. I have heard the same thing too though, and keep telling myself I need to go. I just never do. Next year it’s happening for sure though!
/until I forget about it all over again
September 29th, 2011 at 2:05 PM
For sure. Fantasy baseball very much increased my knowledge base. Otherwise I would have had no clue who the fuck Desmond Jennings was.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:05 PM
Exactly! I have learned so much more about baseball and football from following all the teams because of fantasy purposes.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:06 PM
I’m not going to knock those guys because you’d have to be a pretty big baseball fan to play fantasy baseball…but what percentage of fans actually do? Compared to FFB?
September 29th, 2011 at 2:07 PM
Oh, football probably blows baseball away. Probably like 15 to 1. Fantasy baseball is my favorite of the fantasy sports. I look forward to draft day every year. Check my roster every morning.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:07 PM
There’s around 12 million active Fantasy baseball compared to 35 million active fantasy football. Those numbers are a little old however.
/been doing fantasy baseball for 11 years
September 29th, 2011 at 2:08 PM
I personally like FBB over FFB a lot more. The fact that it is everyday and that there is an ever increasing player pool to pay attention to through out the season makes it much more active than FFB for me.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:08 PM
Hence, Wins Above Replacement.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:10 PM
If you do dynasty/prospects, you should’ve known about Jennings about three years ago.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:10 PM
LOL, i was a deadbeat FFB owner last year, i can only imagine how bad i’d be at FBB.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:11 PM
I would have guessed the disparity was MUCH larger.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:14 PM
Who cares about WAR? You don’t pitch to increase your WAR, you get up on the mound to strike that motherfucker out.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:15 PM
I think a lot of people get turned off by how long the baseball season is though. You’re talking about a sport that people need to follow every day to be good at.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:20 PM
“You don’t pitch to decrease your ERA, you pitch to strike that motherfucker out.”
“You don’t throw a pass to increase your yards per attempt, you throw a pass to get a first down.”
Other things you could have said that make sense, but nonetheless are silly to say when it comes down to knowing who was better.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:50 PM
ahem.
September 29th, 2011 at 3:25 PM
To answer:
Columbus Clippers, Akron Aeros, Kinston Indians, and Lake County Captains are the Tribe’s AAA, AA, High A, and Low A teams.
September 29th, 2011 at 3:25 PM
Don’t encourage him. I’d rather him ignore stats than the inevitable abuse of them that will follow.
September 29th, 2011 at 4:06 PM
so i throw a couple good seasons early in my career – get my WAR up – then quit at the pinnacle, i could be known as one of the greatest pitchers evAr?!?! got it…
all you stat nerds do it point fingers with your chin in the air. are your stats useful? sure. but if you think their an absolute science, you’re mistaken.
September 29th, 2011 at 4:20 PM
No, that isn’t how WAR works b/c as many before me have stated, it is a counting stat.
e.g.
Probably because, as you just did here, people fail to properly understand or comprehend progress, stubbornly stick to a narrative that has been proven false, and rely on patently inferior tools.
September 29th, 2011 at 4:24 PM
Further, this:
seems funny coming from the same person that wrote this:
September 29th, 2011 at 4:27 PM
The bar to increase your WAR is: be slightly better than shit.
so replacement = shit?
September 29th, 2011 at 4:29 PM
if you think anyone besides Cy Young is the greatest pitcher in MLB history, you’re wrong.
i’ll admit this statement is completely inaccurate. i was caught up in the TBL’s claim that Mo was the best ever and emotionally detached from reason.
September 29th, 2011 at 4:42 PM
just not sure that WAR quatifies uncertainty, which i don’t believe can be done.
it’s certainly a good measurement tool, but not as accurate as you make it out to be.
September 29th, 2011 at 4:42 PM
*quantifies
September 29th, 2011 at 5:03 PM
That 3-0 choke job is still skull fucking you Yankees fans. There is no comparison. You want to act like little bitches because the Red Sox lost wild card lead but it doesnt compare
October 4th, 2011 at 5:01 PM
Listen you math flunkies:
According to a probability expert, the 2004 Yankees had a 93.75% chance of beating the Red Sox in that series after winning the first three games. The Red Sox had a 99.6% chance of making it to the playoffs at the beginning of Sept. 2011.
Source: http://www.waswatching.com/archives/2007/10/2004_yankees_vs.html