Bryce Harper is Not Exactly Tearing Up Class-AA
We update you when Bryce Harper arrogantly blows a kiss to a pitcher and it’s kind of a big deal when he gets new (bad) tattoos … so here’s an update on his struggles in Class-AA:
Through 9 games, he’s 6-for-31 (.194 average) at the plate with zero homers, six RBI and seven strikeouts.
Fans in Harrisburg have been booing him lately. What’s with the early funk? He can’t possibly be bored already, can he?
Nah. It’s probably that he’s 18 years old, and the kids he went to high school with graduated last month. By the 25-game mark, he’ll probably be up to .300 with half a dozen homers. Also, Harper is facing a lot of lefties. Interestingly enough, two of the best lefties in baseball are in the NL East (Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels). And Johan Santana of the Mets isn’t bad, either.
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July 19th, 2011 at 3:18 PM
Youngest player in AA in any of the leagues. Growings pains. He’ll be fine.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:18 PM
If WWoS and Rusty could get into again over whether a small sample size is relevant for certain things, I would like that.
/they’re both smarter than me.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:22 PM
Not exactly surprising that he’s struggling. He’ll spend the rest of the year there, and likely most of next year there as well, depending on how he does as the year progresses.
/Harper is still 2+ yrs away from the Show
July 19th, 2011 at 3:23 PM
and it’s kind of a big deal when he gets new (bad) tattoos …
Eh, not as bad as I was thinking. However, if he doesn’t have a full sleave of tats on both arms within five years then I don’t know much about these things.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:24 PM
Ah yes, Harrisburg, where the water flows like batter acid.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:25 PM
Youngest bust in AA in any of the leagues. Ego pains. Consensus? He’ll be terrible.
/TBL’d
July 19th, 2011 at 3:25 PM
Batter acid will f you up. You’re talking about dosing cookie batter with LSD, right Hernia?
July 19th, 2011 at 3:26 PM
sly or james brown?
July 19th, 2011 at 3:26 PM
Dudes like 2 years away from MLB. I don’t think anyone really expected him to come into AA and tear it up just yet.
I think the .300 BA is a pipe dream this year.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:27 PM
Perhaps he should lay off the eye black a little?
July 19th, 2011 at 3:27 PM
If WWoS and Rusty could get into again over whether a small sample size is relevant for certain things, I would like that.
did that happen today?
July 19th, 2011 at 3:29 PM
did that happen today?
A week or so ago. It was in the “Bryce Harper was bored in A ball post”.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:30 PM
A week or so ago. It was in the “Bryce Harper was bored in A ball post”.
Without even looking, I know who took what side.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:30 PM
I bet he has one that he claims will eventually be a maze.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:30 PM
Ah it was linked in the post: http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011/07/07/bryce-harper-sounds-as-if-he-was-bored-in-class-a-hagerstown/
And it was a little over a week ago.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:30 PM
heh. +1.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:30 PM
but they’ve already commissioned work on this HOF plaque.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:32 PM
but they’ve already commissioned work on this HOF plaque.
Well they’ll have to stop and put it aside along with Stephen Strasburg’s All Star Game MVP Trophy.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:34 PM
Well they’ll have to stop and put it aside along with Stephen Strasburg’s All Star Game MVP Trophy.
A year old burn? Now that is talent.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:35 PM
i hope they hired robert smithson to do a land plaque!!!
July 19th, 2011 at 3:35 PM
Will be seeing him on sunday, hopefully his “slump” will be over by then
July 19th, 2011 at 3:36 PM
A week or so ago. It was in the “Bryce Harper was bored in A ball post”.
wwos has thinner skin than I previously stated. That was downright jerky.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:36 PM
Speaking of HOF, this morning Cowherd said Romo is four good seasons away. Seriously.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:36 PM
Will be seeing him on sunday, hopefully his “slump” will be over by then
Maybe it won’t be and you’ll get to see a world class tantrum in the dugout.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:37 PM
Not gonna lie, that would be awesome
July 19th, 2011 at 3:37 PM
wwos has thinner skin than I previously stated. That was downright jerky.
I don’t know. I got into a WAR argument with him once and I was both incorrect and a dick (yes I can admit to both) and he seemed largely unfazed by it at that time.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:38 PM
Speaking of HOF, this morning Cowherd said Romo is four good seasons away. Seriously.
Wasn’t he the ass hat who hated on Aaron Rodger’s because he hadn’t won a playoff game? Tony Romo’s won 1 playoff (I think?) game and he’s HOF worthy? Fuck him and his bird face.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:39 PM
Let’s wait to see if he declares this particular run of bad luck to be the result of something easily dismissed, then we can back test it and ascribe a narrative!!!
/WWOS
//and most sportswriters
July 19th, 2011 at 3:40 PM
Ah it was linked in the post: http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011/07/07/bryce-harper-sounds-as-if-he-was-bored-in-class-a-hagerstown/
P-value! P-value, you’ve come back to me!
July 19th, 2011 at 3:40 PM
Have you been to the Hardware Bar? Harrisburg’s take on Coyote Ugly? Its even more ridiculous than it sounds.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:40 PM
Speaking of HOF, this morning Cowherd said Romo is four good seasons away. Seriously.
my advice to you, good sir, is to turn off your radio, and leave it off. Or put it on public radio. Any sports radio is too much sports radio.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:40 PM
been on the road all day. Did I miss anything worthwhile?
/no?
//resumes normal inane commenting
July 19th, 2011 at 3:41 PM
18???
Shit, I have t-shirts that old.
/I’m sure Harper will be fine
July 19th, 2011 at 3:42 PM
Rusty > Nick P
July 19th, 2011 at 3:42 PM
Oldies radio!
/jams out to Motown, the British Invasion, and the woodstock legends
July 19th, 2011 at 3:42 PM
What color?
July 19th, 2011 at 3:42 PM
31 at bats, huh? Why don’t you just provide a post every day that includes what he did that day and you can update him as “EPIC BUST!!” or “FUTURE HOF GET HIM IN THE ALL STAR GAME SELIG” each time.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:42 PM
Stamkos signed a new deal with the Lightning, $37.5M over 5 years. And, gasp, he’s only 21.
/on tee for Spencer
July 19th, 2011 at 3:43 PM
What color?
brownish yellow (in the armpits)
July 19th, 2011 at 3:43 PM
Shit, I have t-shirts that old.
Have any of those t-shirts been called the greatest power hitting prospect of all time? Or been belatedly labelled as the best prospect in baseball by Keith Law after, oddly enough, you finally look like something other than the best prospect in baseball for a few weeks?
July 19th, 2011 at 3:44 PM
It’s a gray Eagles training camp tshirt that I have deigned to be “lucky”. It only gets worn when running.
And since I haven’t dropped dead (yet) when running in this heat, I’d have to say it’s working.
/science
July 19th, 2011 at 3:44 PM
It’s just a wonder why folks dislike Cowherd
July 19th, 2011 at 3:45 PM
It’s a gray Eagles training camp tshirt that I have deigned to be “lucky”. It only gets worn when running.
And since I haven’t dropped dead (yet) when running in this heat, I’d have to say it’s working.
/science
My bear prevention rock by the back door has been keeping bears away for years.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:46 PM
Cowherd is better at trolling than SC.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:47 PM
id love to see what rory gets in appearance fees on the euro tour…
July 19th, 2011 at 3:47 PM
My round-about aids test helps me to sleep at night.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:48 PM
My bear prevention rock by the back door has been keeping bears away for years.
I had one in the yard today, but it was a huge pussy. It ran from a Brittany.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:49 PM
My round-about aids test helps me to sleep at night.
+1
“Rick do you know anyone who has AIDS?”
“Nope.”
“Cool. Because you know me.”
July 19th, 2011 at 3:49 PM
So 7.5 million-ish cap hit? Not bad for TB. do you really think someone – like Toronto – could have come in and offered him max money and stolen him away? I heard this discussed and – Burke’s “principles” aside – wonder if it could have happened…
July 19th, 2011 at 3:50 PM
So what I get out of this post is that he has a harder time hitting against pitchers that have better control and can bring it.
Interesting stats though, Mauer hit between .335 and .341 at that level.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:51 PM
Of course, Rusty was right.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:52 PM
As luck would have it, that’s the first time I’ve turned on Cowherd in at least a year. And that’s what I heard in the first :43. Fo realz.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:54 PM
OT
It’s 84 and in the sun feels like 100 degrees. Make it be 70 again
/end OT
July 19th, 2011 at 3:55 PM
I had one in the yard today, but it was a huge pussy. It ran from a Brittany.
Our day-to-day living experiences could not be more different. The only wild animals I see are squirrels as they wait until I’ve five feet away from them in my car before they decide to cross the street.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:56 PM
Bstr, Burke has stated numerous times that he believes long~term contracts (like Richards with NYR) circumvent the cap. He’s also on record as being against offer sheets (see Penner, Dustin).
Teams simply aren’t willing to part with the 4 first round picks it would cost to offer sheet guys like Stamkos or Doughty.
/nevermind that Tampa and LA would match anyway
July 19th, 2011 at 3:56 PM
Of course, Rusty was right.
piling on, huh? don’t you know the guy’s feelings are already hurt? He feels very unwelcome here, and you’re now telling him he’s wrong? For shame, sir.
July 19th, 2011 at 3:56 PM
Could come to Vancouver, where it’s barely broken 70 (21 Celsius) and doesn’t seem to want to stop raining…
July 19th, 2011 at 3:56 PM
Our day-to-day living experiences could not be more different.
funny you say that, because I’m not currently getting any pussy either. Aren’t you on the shelf until you get married?
July 19th, 2011 at 3:57 PM
As luck would have it, that’s the first time I’ve turned on Cowherd in at least a year. And that’s what I heard in the first :43. Fo realz.
that’s awesome. Turn the radio on, hear that immediately, turn it off. Like Crocodile Dundee with the Lucy rerun.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:00 PM
I would totally offer Doughty 7 at 7 if I was Ken Holland. Wings usually trade out of the 1st round anyways. I think LA would match that though.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:00 PM
Relentless. He’s like the Dustin Pedroia of commenters.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:01 PM
funny you say that, because I’m not currently getting any pussy either. Aren’t you on the shelf until you get married?
You are correct sir. March 24 can’t get here soon enough.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:01 PM
He’s probably just bored…..
July 19th, 2011 at 4:01 PM
Burke is such a man of principle…. honestly I think that the four first rounders is the bigger issue for most. But, in the case of Stamkos (and Doughty) four 1sts might almost be worth it. And, even if TB matches, you cripple an opponent so maybe it’s worth it? Dirty, yes, but probably worth considering.
Or it’s just that this offseason has been really boring lately and I want someone to stir it up.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:02 PM
Of 2012?????
/pours out some of Dirt’s vagisil for ms
July 19th, 2011 at 4:02 PM
Jesus H. Fuck…
July 19th, 2011 at 4:02 PM
I remember when Bob Clarke signed Ryan Kesler to an offer sheet. I think Brian Burke’s head turned purple and exploded as a result.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:02 PM
When it comes to Doughty, I agree it’s worth taking a shot and giving up the 4 first rounders. Sure LA would probably match, but why not give it a shot?
July 19th, 2011 at 4:03 PM
So who signs next? Weber, Doughty or Parise?
July 19th, 2011 at 4:03 PM
In hindsight matching that deal turned out really well for the Canucks.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:04 PM
Of 2012?????
What can I say: Catholic guilt: 1, Me: 0.
I think we both figure that we’re making everything square for all the sinnin’ we did in the previous 3.5 years.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:04 PM
You are correct sir. March 24 can’t get here soon enough.
that is absolutely ridiculous. You were hitting it, though, right? Or is this some citizenship thing?
And are there any blowies, or are you just your own handy man? Because you might want to invest in some things if you’re flying solo for a long time.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:05 PM
MS – Are you two living together? Where are you drawing the line with this sinning thing?
July 19th, 2011 at 4:05 PM
What can I say: Catholic guilt: 1, Me: 0.
I can still coerce the wife into a little something every couple of weeks, but it’s getting less and less pleasant with anything below the neck.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:06 PM
The Devils named a coach today (DeBoer) so I’m gonna guess Uncle Lou gets Parise signed.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:06 PM
Sami Lepisto and his pending 100 point season in Chicago didn’t do it for you?
July 19th, 2011 at 4:06 PM
why not give it a shot
The Kings, as well as other teams, have stated that signing any of their players to an offer sheet will result in them targeting all of the offending teams’ RFAs.
/similar to Canucks and Blues pissing match over Backes and Bernier
July 19th, 2011 at 4:07 PM
that is absolutely ridiculous. You were hitting it, though, right? Or is this some citizenship thing?
Nope no citizenship thing. We’d been dating for over 3 years when we got engaged. We did plenty with each other prior to meeting with the deacon. But once that happened in the spring, it was made clear to us that the Cathedral we’re getting married at doesn’t look to fondly on the fact that we already live together. And that in light of that we should put a stop to certain things. And so reluctantly we have.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:07 PM
+567 Catholic Rationalizations
July 19th, 2011 at 4:08 PM
MS – Are you two living together? Where are you drawing the line with this sinning thing?
Yes we live together. And yes it’s a fine distinction to make. We’re not exactly the prototypical type of couple that gets married in the Catholic church though.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:09 PM
relgion fucking shit up, yet again…
July 19th, 2011 at 4:09 PM
it was made clear to us that the Cathedral we’re getting married at doesn’t look to fondly on the fact that we already live together. And that in light of that we should put a stop to certain things
Did they install camers? Can’t you just say something like, “Uh, separate rooms”?
July 19th, 2011 at 4:09 PM
I can still coerce the wife into a little something every couple of weeks, but it’s getting less and less pleasant with anything below the neck.
This was painfully funny Dirt.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:09 PM
Camers = cameras written in a southern dialect
July 19th, 2011 at 4:09 PM
I bet that Cathedral has at least one project they’re seeking
absolvingdonations for. Maybe a nice, stained glass window or did the dock workers already fuck you on that one?July 19th, 2011 at 4:09 PM
With the emergence of Lou Marson, Smooth should be dealt while the iron is hot! 2011 trade value.
/kidding
//trade for Pence!
July 19th, 2011 at 4:09 PM
And that in light of that we should put a stop to certain things. And so reluctantly we have.
do you know the punishment for lying to a priest? I don’t either, but it’s not worse than getting no pussy for 9 months.
Oh, and fuck a deacon. My wife’s uncle Al is a Catholic deacon. Those guys are pompous, status loving jerks.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:09 PM
No wonder the divorce rate is over 50% in this country.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:10 PM
Can’t you just say something like, “Uh, separate rooms”?
My significant other has a thing about lying to holy men. She doesn’t feel comfortable doing so.
/me on the other hand….
July 19th, 2011 at 4:10 PM
Sounds like you need a stoma installed.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:10 PM
Well, MS, I applaud your commitment. I guess I, uh, didn’t realize anyone gave a shit about what The Church had to say about sex any more.
But if you’re getting married at The Cathedral instead of just any old church, I suppose God might actually be paying attention. Probably a smart move. (I kid, I kid).
July 19th, 2011 at 4:11 PM
//trade for Pence!
Hey! Stop that!
July 19th, 2011 at 4:11 PM
Ever since Dirt described his marital rights as feeling like a warm, rotten melon I have shied away from any of his descriptions of married life.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:11 PM
Sounds like you need a stoma installed.
she’s getting fed up with things that occur above the neck, so I sort of need something to happen right in the area of the neck.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:11 PM
would it make her feel better if she knew they were lying to her all along?
July 19th, 2011 at 4:12 PM
Ever since Dirt described his marital rights as feeling like a warm, rotten melon I have shied away from any of his descriptions of married life.
that was a one time thing. First trimster, second baby blues. It was not good though. That was a bad day at my house. I haven’t hurt anybody’s feelings that bad again ever, until today.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:13 PM
Sorry no. It’s a weird offseason for Canucks fans, with most I think still trying to process the end of the season (and mourning the loss of Torres). I’m more curious about what’s going to happen with the NFL when the lockout ends. The most exciting moment for me was the rumour that the Canucks were going after Parise. That got me excited, but no dice. I still think a trade or two is coming, but for now it’s just really dull.
Then sign your damn player. Enough with the “honour” BS. Again, few players are worth the heartache, but I think Doughty might just be worth upsetting a few others to go after.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:13 PM
Well, MS, I applaud your commitment. I guess I, uh, didn’t realize anyone gave a shit about what The Church had to say about sex any more.
But if you’re getting married at The Cathedral instead of just any old church, I suppose God might actually be paying attention. Probably a smart move. (I kid, I kid).
It’s definitely not easy. But on the other hand we’re adults and we know that, by Catholic standards, we’re getting away with quite a bit if they’re still willing to let us marry in a Cathedral. So it’s more about we’re happy to have gotten in what we did over 3.5 years and if us going without for a few months is what it takes to make everyone happy, including the Cathedral, then it’s a relatively small price to pay.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:13 PM
Well people outside the church don’t but many people that do go to church do care about it.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:13 PM
I wish I had never seen comment #93.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:14 PM
I laughed.
/was cut off from sex for two months before the wedding, with nothing else off limits
//lucky I married an ex-Catholic
July 19th, 2011 at 4:14 PM
i haven’t been able to go for a run in almost 2 weeks thanks to this weather.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:14 PM
/dumb enough to scroll up and see what it was
July 19th, 2011 at 4:14 PM
What’s his name?
July 19th, 2011 at 4:15 PM
We have very different definitions of the word “few”. Very, very different.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:16 PM
In addition to lying with her children.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:16 PM
Doubt any big names get moved. Hawks roster is set for 2011-12 so I’m just fiddling with line combinations now. Anything to keep Patrick Sharp on the wing and out of the dot.
I do like our 4th line though. Bruno with Toews-Kane should be interesting to see develop, too. 2nd and 3rd lines are a jumble. I just pray that Hossa doesn’t get saddled with a center incapable of feeding him markers again. Would prefer he not get wasted for yet another season.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:16 PM
Nope no citizenship thing. We’d been dating for over 3 years when we got engaged. We did plenty with each other prior to meeting with the deacon. But once that happened in the spring, it was made clear to us that the Cathedral we’re getting married at doesn’t look to fondly on the fact that we already live together. And that in light of that we should put a stop to certain things. And so reluctantly we have.
I don’t know if I should admire you or digitally slap the shit out of you.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:16 PM
See…this is why I’m a lapsed Catholic and married a Jew.
/might as well take my one way ticket to hell now
July 19th, 2011 at 4:17 PM
I seem to have the Monty Python “Every sperm is sacred” song in my head now…
July 19th, 2011 at 4:18 PM
We have very different definitions of the word “few”. Very, very different.
The “few” is more for me than for others. Just a “few” more months.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:19 PM
The “few” is more for me than for others. Just a “few” more months.
I got money that they do it again before wedding day.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:19 PM
By your definition of time, you should live for over 2,000 years MS.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:20 PM
I got money that they do it again before wedding day.
But if they do it they’re already liars so they’ll just keep lying to you like they’re lying to the priest and baby Jesus
July 19th, 2011 at 4:20 PM
I don’t know if I should admire you or digitally slap the shit out of you.
I’m not saying it’s for everyone. Certainly everyone has their own standards.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:21 PM
I’m convinced that the Canucks line-up is anything but set at this point. Especially up front.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:21 PM
I got money that they do it again before wedding day.
Here’s hoping.
/places $50 bet.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:22 PM
Add my $50 to it too… you’ll get to the point where goodnight kisses are a dangerous endeavor. I hope you have a guest room!
July 19th, 2011 at 4:25 PM
you’ll get to the point where goodnight kisses are a dangerous endeavor. I hope you have a guest room!
If that were to happen, I don’t think either of us would lose a whole lot of sleep over it. This is more like a worthy challenge: if we fail, well…at least we tried.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:26 PM
We failed the first time, and had to re-set and try again with a shorter goal. Good luck though!
July 19th, 2011 at 4:27 PM
Don’t know if you’re Catholic or not, but I was referring strictly to “Catholic Church”. My experience is yeah, the vast majority of (especially 40 and under) Catholics — even those who go to mass regularly — do not give a shit (like, at all) about the Church’s preachings about sex. Just my experience.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:27 PM
We failed the first time, and had to re-set and try again with a shorter goal.
This is actually what I put my money on happening.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:28 PM
It would be pretty awesome if the priest surprised you with a “DID YOU FORNICATE AFTER OUR MEETING?!?” pop quiz at the altar on the big day, though.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:37 PM
eh.. I’m over it. My thin-skin is balanced by a short memory. I don’t think you can say anything is due to being a ‘small sample size’ unless you actually determine if indeed it’s a small sample, which was my problem at the time, but I really dont feel like trying to figure out how many at-bats it takes to go from a ‘streak’ to a statistically-signifcant subpopulation of data.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:42 PM
Yeah… I don’t think Rusty ever got what I was trying to say, and then it just got to be ‘jerky’ and never had a chance. I just don’t like when people use statistical terms “small sample size” when they would ignore any statistics relevant to their point. Just say “gut-feeling” to be more accurate.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:47 PM
I knew what you were getting at. I really did.
You need at least 500 PA for OBP to normalize. For some stats, it’s much lower.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:53 PM
Yes… but we aren’t trying to normalize, we are trying to compare two subsets, and the required sample size isn’t a function of normalcy, but rather the Y-axis difference between the two groups. If one person goes 0-60 one month, and 60-60 the next, you wouldn’t say that you can’t read anything into it, because it’s not 500, but you take into account the difference in averages (0 vs 1.000) and get a p-value of the likelihood it’s not based solely on chance based on that. For Harper, I imagine you’d take the population average (.320) then ask if batting (.200) over 50 plate appearances is different.
You don’t need any of the stats to be normal, that’s why we invented non-parametric statistics.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:56 PM
I think I will actually try this tonight:
Roll a dice to represent at bats, and any “1″ or “2″ is a hit (so he bats .333). If you roll it 200 times, will you have any stretch of 50 rolls in which you get fewer than 10 1′s+2′s. I don’t know the answer, but it certainly is calculable, and if you can show me how to calculate it and routinely (>5%) find that happening, then you can make your sample size point.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:57 PM
Also could you explain what you mean by normalize?
July 19th, 2011 at 5:00 PM
The problem with doing that is you can extend that to the entire population of MLB players, and you’re bound to come up with something that is “statistically significant.”
But unless you come up with up with a reason for why it happened BEFORE the test, it’s just arbitrary and meaningless data mining.
Ask a baseball player if he’s bored before the at-bat. Then, see what you get.
July 19th, 2011 at 5:03 PM
Otherwise, you get a lot of this going on.
July 19th, 2011 at 5:08 PM
For example, I just tried it 350 times, in groups of 50.
The numbers I got (expecting 16-17 average)
19
16
15
16
20
19
16
Now you are suggesting batting average is normally distributed, which I don’t think I’d agree with, unless you show some test of normalcy, but just by my simple real life example so far, I see nothing to suggest that a large dropoff from expected value can’t be statistically significant over a span of even just 50 trial.
FYI This is just a trial that suggests success 1 of 3 times, and that success vs. failure (hit vs. out) is random only.
July 19th, 2011 at 5:14 PM
I’m so close to agreeing with you, except that not every trial is prospective. You have to have both statistical significance, and plausability, which I guess in the end you have to know if you are willing to bet an argument on the word of an 18 year-old kid.
And you are absolutely right, there are TONS of statistically significant slumps in MLB, and many are probably explainable by injury we don’t know about etc, and many are probably just random chance. That said, if you came up with a p-value for his ‘slump’ and have plausability, I don’t know that you can be that dismissive of it. There is no yes or no, only probabilities, and I think if it was a p value of 0.01, and he said he was bored, I’d believe it.
As for the AA ‘slump’ I’d think that most prospects go through an adjustment to better pitching, and that, while not surprising, you might find that the first two weeks in a higher level for all prospects in the minors result in significantly lower averages.
July 19th, 2011 at 5:17 PM
It sounds good, but Bonferroni is an ultra-conservative multiple-testing correction that would help control for that. I heard he was bored, then went back to test if that affected his numbers… I didn’t scan numbers then look for a reason. That should make it more ‘valid’.
July 19th, 2011 at 5:22 PM
Yeah. That’s a limb I’m not willing to go out on. The kid made sure to say he was bored his last 20 games, but not 21 (he went 4-5 with a Homer). Much too convenient for me.
July 19th, 2011 at 5:27 PM
So we basically agree it very well could be statistically signficant (though neither of us knows) but you aren’t willing to take the word of an immature 18 year old? Seems silly to argue on that point… I certainly can’t disagree that statistically significant numbers are meaningless often.
I was never able to find a good game log to figure out exactly what a p-value on his numbers would be, which is why I ended up making excel run a random number sim for me.
July 19th, 2011 at 5:30 PM
That cartoon does bother me though, since I do make such a big deal over statistics here, because any good statistician would run a multiple testings comparison, and move that p value from .05 to .0025
July 19th, 2011 at 5:34 PM
This was fucking awesome!
July 19th, 2011 at 5:35 PM
/sarcasm ignored
//if only Dirt and JayV were here to see it
July 19th, 2011 at 5:38 PM
/sarcasm ignored
//if only Dirt and JayV were here to see it
No sarcasm, totally serious
/works for a market research firm
July 19th, 2011 at 5:39 PM
Nerds.
July 19th, 2011 at 5:42 PM
Nerds.
Don’t you mean “Neeeeeeeeerds!”.