Rookie Wage Scale Is Current Sticking Point, and NFL’s Position on Fifth Year Salary Is Awful
The buzz this week has been that the rookie wage scale discussion is the current sticking point in getting a deal done. This is a positive in the sense that it likely means the sides have closed the gap substantially on the monetary issues, if they are focusing on this detail. Back in January, I wrote about the wage scale, and how the owners proposal was ridiculous. I’m not opposed to lower salaries, even below market value salaries, for a few years for young players. I am opposed to both lowering salaries substantially and keeping a lengthy term of years, so that many top players are underpaid during the prime of their careers.
JaMarcus Russell is of course the rallying point in every article you read on this. He represents the bottom 1% of top NFL Picks. This would be like me using Frank McCourt as representative of MLB Owners, or David Kahn as the standard for NBA GM’s. I’ll try not to get too political here, but the talk about the Rookie Wage Scale reminds me of much of the rhetoric I used to hear on Tort Reform. The political advertising would focus on “frivolous lawsuits” and make it seem like the necessity was to prevent people from filing baseless claims. The actual legislation, in most cases, was directed at limiting liability, particularly punitive damages, in legitimate claims where liability is established — such as say a case where a company makes a conscious decision to avoid costs at the expense of worker safety, which leads to a death.
So the rhetoric with the “rookie” wage scale focuses on overpaying JaMarcus Russell. The true purpose, though, is to control starting level talent at below market rates as long as possible. It is the team, not the player, that insists on stretching these deals out and giving more money over a longer period of time.
John Clayton discusses the latest details, saying that the sides should be close. Under the current proposal, Cam Newton would get $22 million for the first 4 years. This is well over a 50% cut off what teams have been willing to pay the Sam Bradfords and Matt Staffords and Matt Ryans. The players are fine with reducing the salaries early, in exchange for fewer years. But the sticking point is the fifth year and what to do with it.
The players presented a fifth-year solution last Friday that asked owners to pay the top 16 players a salary calculated at the top 10 of their position. For example, Newton would be eligible for a $13.64 million salary in Year 5, ultimately giving him a five-year, $35.64 million contract.
Owners came back with a formula that would give Newton a fifth-year salary of around $4 million, making his deal $26 million over five years. Both sides went back to work.
Okay, that NFL proposal is A-W-F-U-L. That $4 million dollar cap charge would have ranked as the 29th highest at the quarterback position back in 2009, just ahead of Jason Campbell in his last year in Washington, and Luke McCown. And that is comparing a 2015 salary, when we know the cap and overall salaries will go up with new television contracts, to where it would rank a year ago. It is actually lower than the average salary for Newton under the proposal in years 1-4. If he was a starter in year 5, the option would be exercised at way below market. The player proposal at least allows the player to stay under team control but get paid like an above average starting quarterback if he has proven it by then.
I think that proposal shows just how much of the “rookie” wage scale talk is misleading rhetoric when it seeks to control 26 and 27 year old stars at way below value at the team option. The players probably need to stay strong on this one, if they’ve conceded some reduction in early career wages (some of which will apparently go to retired players, per Clayton). That fifth year option at such a relatively low wage would remove all leverage for a renegotiation entering year 4 or 5, because the team commitment could actually go down even as a player is established as a star.
They better have airtight language and no loopholes on the salary floor as well. Otherwise, those savings on young player salaries will not be fully realized on the back end. I think that the salary cap has often been a convenient excuse for “cap casualties”. Teams were cutting or not paying veteran players back in the 1980′s without a cap. I could see scenarios where teams tell a player “why should I renegotiate when I get you so cheap in year 5″ and then turn around at age 28 and say “why should I sign you to a long term deal when you are on decline”. The players need to make sure they are protected against getting played on both sides, even if they make concessions to early salaries.
[photo via Getty]

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162 Responses to “Rookie Wage Scale Is Current Sticking Point, and NFL’s Position on Fifth Year Salary Is Awful”
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July 14th, 2011 at 4:17 PM
They could make it more like baseball in year 5…player option at the NFL’s proposed salary…team option with the player’s proposal.
/I just ended the lockout
//Now post more fantasy related material
July 14th, 2011 at 4:17 PM
Good stuff Lisk. On kind of a side note, I got half way through that Curt Flood doc last night on HBO, and it’s so hard for me to fathom a time when athletes weren’t free agents. Even if you got cut by one team, there was no opportunity to sign with another, even if they wanted your services. So weird.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:17 PM
Lisk threw a couple haymakes in those first two paragraphs.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:18 PM
football!!!!!
22 million for 4 years seems pretty fair. What seems super fair is putting football on my television, and soon.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:19 PM
They could make it more like baseball in year 5…player option at the NFL’s proposed salary…team option with the player’s proposal.
that sounds nice. But the NFL isn’t nice.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:20 PM
Fall camp is just weeks away!
/college
July 14th, 2011 at 4:21 PM
But they’re not market rates. In no planet would Russell have commanded that type of salary on the open market if he were a free agent. He was paid that much because of the rookie wage scale, and only because of it.
That’s the issue.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:21 PM
Very well done, Lisk.
I see the owners goal is still to design the most restrictive, anti-free market system that they can possibly get away with. Hopefully labor is able to hold out for the best deal possible (and get me football in 2011).
July 14th, 2011 at 4:22 PM
@MikeNYC – Market rates could only really be determined if there was no draft and all rookies were free agents.
The owners would NEVER go for that.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:23 PM
But they’re not market rates. In no planet would Russell have commanded that type of salary on the open market if he were a free agent. He was paid that much because of the rookie wage scale, and only because of it.
That’s the issue.
link?
It’s your position that a player that can only negotiate with one team got more money than if that same player could negotiate with multiple teams?
July 14th, 2011 at 4:25 PM
He was paid that much because of the rookie wage scale, and only because of it.
I want you to put the words de facto in there, and then I will agree completely. But I basically agree completely.
That said, the contract (and the cap number) should escalate annually. If he doesn’t get better, you can still cut him. I’m against that dirt cheap 5th year. Seems like it would lead to a lot of holdouts.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:25 PM
It’s your position that a player that can only negotiate with one team got more money than if that same player could negotiate with multiple teams?
Russell’s people might have mentioned to Al Davis that there were other teams bidding on his services in September when the contract finally got signed. That seems like a ploy that could work against the Raiders
July 14th, 2011 at 4:28 PM
seems to me an arbitration period for rookies would work out well for the players and the NFL.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:29 PM
It’s your position that a player that can only negotiate with one team got more money than if that same player could negotiate with multiple teams?
not all of them, but certainly the first one. He wasn’t signing until his agent told him to, and his agent wasn’t taking anything less than 12% more than last year’s first pick got.
And nobody else wanted the pick, right? Picks 1-10 were all but untradeable anymore.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:29 PM
It’s easy in retrospect to say that JaMarcus Russell would not have gotten that amount. We know he was a turd.
In a free market setting, maybe it would have turned out that the Raiders were the only ones who valued him at #1, and thus they could have gotten him for less. Maybe.
But let’s think about Andrew Luck. You’re telling me that there aren’t teams that would pay more than Bradford got for Luck. Keep in mind, Matt Cassel’s cap charge is higher than Russell’s. Your telling me there wouldn’t be a team that would pay a rookie QB better than as the 8th to 10th best right out of the gate to take a shot at him? Not buying it.
Without a draft next year, Luck makes more than double what he will make under this system, right away.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:30 PM
How about we hear someone who doesn’t have their head up the union’s ass next time?
July 14th, 2011 at 4:30 PM
Do you seriously think Sam Bradford would be getting paid more than Tom Brady without a rookie wage scale?
There is no “negotiation” with rookies — there’s a predetermined range that’s set by the previous year’s scale, and they crank out the details from there. It’s not set by an open market.
What you’re saying is that if every team was able to negotiate with Sam Bradford, without a rookie scale — and before he even played an NFL game — that he would receive a bigger contract than Tom Brady.
That’s absurd.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:30 PM
Fail of the epic variety.
Again, everyone uses Jamarcus as the whipping boy, but no one blasts the rookie wage scale for Tom Brady being extremely underpaid the first X years of his career.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:31 PM
And nobody else wanted the pick, right? Picks 1-10 were all but untradeable anymore.
untradeable would imply you could not swap it for a lower pick straight up. Wanting a haul for a top pick is different than saying its untradeable. What did the Jets give up for Sanchez?
July 14th, 2011 at 4:32 PM
You own their asses for 3 years and then they can sign any contract they want up to 5 years
July 14th, 2011 at 4:33 PM
Fail of the epic variety.
that’s weird, because i pretty much agree with him. Not that I’m some smarty. I think the number kept going up, regardless of player value, based on slotting.
I think Luck would be an exception as much as Russell is this exception.
But if I”m wrong, it’s totally Mike’s fault.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:33 PM
that could work out really well for the adrian peterson and chris johnson types, they can sign multiple contracts and maximize their value.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:34 PM
The teams value those picks too highly to trade them. If the teams truly thought they were being hamstrung by these “awful” contracts, they could and would be trading these picks for anything, anything at all. But they don’t.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:34 PM
Julio in the school yard disagrees.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:34 PM
What did the Jets give up for Sanchez?
a tidy sum, but I dont ‘exactly remember. 2 #1′s,(one a year later). and I think a 2 and a 4 in that draft. Also a lot of accuracy.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:34 PM
Do you seriously think Sam Bradford would be getting paid more than Tom Brady without a rookie wage scale?
Well, I actually looked at performance of #1 overall picks and Hall of Fame QB’s at Tom Brady’s age, and it’s pretty even. You get more value from Brady in years 1-2, from the top rookie after that. Depends on how positioned your team is to contend in year 1 as to what you would prefer to spend on.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:36 PM
that’s weird, because i pretty much agree with him. Not that I’m some smarty. I think the number kept going up, regardless of player value, based on slotting.
As a percentage of overall salary cap, I believe this is false. But I would have to search for a link to that. Cap went up dramatically in the last 5 years with TV deals.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:36 PM
More Lisk!
$22 for 4 seems legit. Perhaps either do not have a fifth year or have one based on player and/or team options based on mutually agreed upon milestones achieved?
July 14th, 2011 at 4:36 PM
The teams value those picks too highly to trade them.
I remember some of the picks (like the corner that went to cleveland 2 years ago, hayden) where they picked a guy to match the money as much as they filled a need. I remember McClain being the next pick for Raiders, and people not liking the pick because that was too expensive/high for an inside linebacker, despite the need.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:37 PM
As a percentage of overall salary cap, I believe this is false. But I would have to search for a link to that. Cap went up dramatically in the last 5 years with TV deals.
I retract my support of Mike’s statement, in light of all this disagreement. It sounded good though, and Russell is such an easy example.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:37 PM
Yes, this. Each year’s pick felt like they needed to get more than the same pick did last year.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:38 PM
I used to think MikeNYC was a capitalism apologist; now I see he’s just a management apologist.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:39 PM
Plus the scale used to sign JaMarcus and Bradford isn’t a collectively bargained scale.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:40 PM
How dare you mention David Kahn in this article, Mr. Lisk! Don’t you see he is a mad genius?
//sarcasm for those who do not get it.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:42 PM
How about we hear someone who doesn’t have their head up the union’s ass next time?
Yeah, Lisk, how could you possibly side against those poor magnanimous owners? They are the ones that are exposed to all the risks involved in football. And what do they even get out of all their efforts for the public good? Maybe a billion dollars when they sell their franchise. Who would even watch the NFL if there weren’t so many colorful owners?
July 14th, 2011 at 4:43 PM
How about we hear someone who doesn’t have their head up the union’s ass next time?
Thanks for your contribution. I call ‘em like I see ‘em. I think there are other writers who are in the bag for one side or the other, and get sources. I could have done that. I mean, I said the players numbers were wrong on average career length.
I could really care less whether players, overall, get 48 or 52%. All’s fair in love and negotiation. But I think the rhetoric on the position with regard to this “rookie” wage scale doesn’t match up with the truth, and I’m going to tell you that.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:43 PM
There’s not gonna be a protest.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:43 PM
Duffy is going to have a field day with this tomorrow…
http://deadspin.com/5821296/mets-reliever-taylor-buchholz-on-dl-for-depression-says-he-felt-bad-crying-to-another-man
July 14th, 2011 at 4:44 PM
The actual legislation, in most cases, was directed at limiting liability, particularly punitive damages, in legitimate claims where liability is established — such as say a case where a company makes a conscious decision to avoid costs at the expense of worker safety, which leads to a death.
Lisk — Don’t know if you have HBO or not, but there is a fantastic documentary ondemand right now called “Hot Coffee” that is all about Tort Reform.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:44 PM
SG’s not going to like that.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:46 PM
I thought you were better than this, Jason.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:47 PM
I could really care less
I thought you were better than this, Jason.
/lights SG flare
July 14th, 2011 at 4:47 PM
Lisk: Team Ambulance Chaser?
July 14th, 2011 at 4:47 PM
I watched some of that. The thing about the girl getting raped was brutal.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:48 PM
I could really care less
I thought you were better than this, Jason.
Maybe he really could care less. I imagine Roller Derby negotiations would fall into that category.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:49 PM
Hypothetical: Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers are both “free agents” this summer.
The only conclusion we can draw from their comments is that Lisk and Rusty think it’s reasonable to give Newton a contract greater or equal to that of Rodgers.
And the only conclusion I can draw is that I don’t want Lisk or Rusty anywhere near running my team.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:49 PM
Lisk: Team Ambulance Chaser?
Insurance defense lawyer once upon a time.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:50 PM
so why don’t you care less then? HUH?
July 14th, 2011 at 4:50 PM
Insurance defense lawyer once upon a time.
Ahh, team fuck the ambulance. I think there are quite a few on here that will be glad to side with fucking the ambulance
July 14th, 2011 at 4:50 PM
I watched some of that. The thing about the girl getting raped was brutal.
Yeah that weirded me out alot, I felt uneasy watching parts of it. It made like Al Franken when he was grilling the Halliburton rep at the Senate hearing — I thought the first 1/3 of it about the woman who spilled coffee on herself (the famous Mcdonalds case) was fascinating. I would reccommend atleast that part ot anyone.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:50 PM
Mike NYC-
No. Aaron Rodgers is 27. And I wasn’t sold on Newton as a prospect.
So I would personally pay way more to Rodgers than either Brady or Bradford based on that.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:51 PM
I may have to buy tickets for that Cardinals/Panthers game. If Newton starts Peterson and DRC might have a field day.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:51 PM
The only conclusion we can draw from their comments is that Lisk and Rusty think it’s reasonable to give Newton a contract greater or equal to that of Rodgers.
oh, and you fail logic class.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:53 PM
The only conclusion we can draw from their comments is that Lisk and Rusty think it’s reasonable to give Newton a contract greater or equal to that of Rodgers.
And the gold medal for the largest leap in logic goes to Mike NYC!
July 14th, 2011 at 4:54 PM
where did you draw that from?
July 14th, 2011 at 4:54 PM
Ugh. Quick, Lisk, say something I disagree with
July 14th, 2011 at 4:54 PM
Lisk is getting feisty!
I don’t give two shits about NFL negotiations, but…
And I wasn’t sold on Newton as a prospect.
Me neither. He’s going to sucky suck.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:54 PM
I am curious what kind of contract Kevin Kolb is going to get.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:54 PM
From his jump to conclusions mat
July 14th, 2011 at 4:55 PM
Damn. September can’t get here soon enough. Week 1 vs Colts will be the highlight of the year and it will be a miserable season after that.
/S&M’d
July 14th, 2011 at 4:55 PM
where did you draw that from?
From a Fucking Hat!
July 14th, 2011 at 4:55 PM
yea…this is good. if the guy is good enough you want to resign him, don’t lowball the dude.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:56 PM
Ugh. Quick, Lisk, say something I disagree with
Girls from Prairie Village are sluts
July 14th, 2011 at 4:56 PM
Amen on this. So much false promise for the Eagles again…
July 14th, 2011 at 4:56 PM
Didn’t realize the iPad had come out with the Straw Man app. I’ll look for it when I get home.
July 14th, 2011 at 4:57 PM
Because, if we based it on last year’s scale, Newton’s contract will be roughly the same as the highest paid QB in the game.
And since there is nothing wrong with the rookie scale, per Lisk, you’d have to assume Newton’s contract was reasonable, no?
July 14th, 2011 at 4:58 PM
Girls from Prairie Village are sluts
/researching flights to Prairie Village
Is that in Kansas?
July 14th, 2011 at 4:59 PM
This lockout HAS to be settled with no games missed. If Steelers/Ravens in Week 1 gets cancelled, I’m going to be livid.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:00 PM
Because, if we based it on last year’s scale, Newton’s contract will be roughly the same as the highest paid QB in the game.
And Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers were all free agents at the beginning of the year, too. I understand now
July 14th, 2011 at 5:00 PM
22 for 4, and if they can’t come to an agreement on the 5th, then the player becomes a FA. His team wants to slap the franchise tag on him, then pay him according to (a) his performance, and (b) median salary of players at his position. That would average out nicely.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:01 PM
I am all for the cancellation of the Hall of Fame Game though if it gets to that point, the less Bears football there is in the world the better
July 14th, 2011 at 5:01 PM
Mike’s right, veteran players should get a much bigger percentage of total revenues than they are currently getting so they do not make less than rookies. Does a Salary floor around 55% of the total revenue sound about right?
July 14th, 2011 at 5:02 PM
His team wants to slap the franchise tag on him, then pay him according to (a) his performance, and (b) median salary of players at his position. That would average out nicely.
NFL arbitration could be fun. I always love when the first legitimate star in a couple of years actually gets to arbitration in MLB and signs a RECORD FOR ARBITRATION! contract
July 14th, 2011 at 5:02 PM
Tom Brady signed a new contract six weeks after Sam Bradford signed his.
Pray tell, who received more guaranteed money?
July 14th, 2011 at 5:02 PM
i never thought i’d hear Mike NYC argue against something that makes people into mega millionaires rather than just millionaires.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:03 PM
fair enough.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:04 PM
Sounds like the market told Tom Brady how much he was worth over the life of a contract. Are you insinuating Belichick/Pioli do not know how to run an organization given the contract they got Brady to sign?
July 14th, 2011 at 5:05 PM
people already have brady jerseys and pats are already selling out all their games…what extra income is he providing? at least newton will generate some interest and some ancillary income.
/devil’s advocate
July 14th, 2011 at 5:05 PM
Ahhh….don’t like sausage because you once made it?
Actually, I skew conservative and am Texan, where tort reform knows no bounds. It’s been great for business here (I believe Texas has more new jobs created in the last decade than all the other 49 states combined), but I do think our tort reform has gone too far. Legit cases can’t find a home in a contingency-fee world. And of course, insurance companies are the devil.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:05 PM
Because, if we based it on last year’s scale, Newton’s contract will be roughly the same as the highest paid QB in the game.
And since there is nothing wrong with the rookie scale, per Lisk, you’d have to assume Newton’s contract was reasonable, no?
One, I don’t think this is right. USA Today salary database doesn’t have 2010, but going by 2009, Manning had a cap charge of 21.2 mil, McNabb 16.7, Cassel 15.2, Brady 14.6 and Palmer 14.3. Bradford’s deal had the potential to be top 5 the second he signed it (and remember, new deals are signed every year, Rodgers, Manning, etc will shatter that soon enough)
July 14th, 2011 at 5:07 PM
Tom Brady is old.
Albert Haynesworth signed a 7 year $100 million deal in 2009. BJ Raji signed a 5 year deal for $28 million. Rookie wage scale sucks, though.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:07 PM
part of the rookie inflation is the potential they all carry, not only for performance, but for marketing and increase in income for the team due to ticket and merch sales.
spencer is right in this aspect. potentially a whole career of a potentially great player is more valuable than potentially the downward side of a great players career.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:08 PM
Pray tell, who received more guaranteed money?
Brady: 4yrs, $72M, $48.5M guaranteed
Bradford: 6yrs, $78M, $50M guaranteed
Solid point. Mike wins this one. Sort of
July 14th, 2011 at 5:09 PM
One, I don’t think this is right. USA Today salary database doesn’t have 2010, but going by 2009, Manning had a cap charge of 21.2 mil, McNabb 16.7, Cassel 15.2, Brady 14.6 and Palmer 14.3. Bradford’s deal had the potential to be top 5 the second he signed it (and remember, new deals are signed every year, Rodgers, Manning, etc will shatter that soon enough)
I cant wait for two.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:09 PM
Ahhh….don’t like sausage because you once made it?
I didn’t have some idealogical stand that switched. I did mostly first party stuff, fraud, along with uninsured motorist contract interpretation etc, so it’s not like those tort reform debates affected my cases directly. Those laws were for class actions and things like pharmaceutical companies.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:10 PM
So Rusty as GM in 2010 before Bradford played an NFL game would rather have him over Brady.
Pretty much what I said before. Glad you’ve come around to my side.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:10 PM
This new rookie wage scale will make creating and maintaining a dynasty in Madden the easiest thing ever.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:11 PM
I cant wait for two.
I’m the king of half completed thoughts.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:11 PM
But this isn’t out of line with what Lisk stated earlier…with regard to age and expectations of performance throughout the life of the contract.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:11 PM
You have to remember we’re talking about the labor force here and not management
July 14th, 2011 at 5:11 PM
What about the guaranteed money Brady is going to earn in years 5 & 6, while Bradford is locked into his current contract?
July 14th, 2011 at 5:12 PM
finally, we get to the real issue.
very good point.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:13 PM
I’m not an NFL scout, but according to Lisk’s work, I’d probably rather have an average #1 pick’s career over the last 4 years of a declining Tom Brady. Not really a stretch.
For the same reason I’d rather have the #1 baseball prospect over the next 4 years of Jeter’s career.
As a GM, I would try my best not to pay people for what they did in 2002.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:15 PM
I know you don’t follow the NFL so I’ll forgive you for not knowing that total number means nothing.
Haynesworth got $41MM guaranteed.
That same year, Tyson Jackson, as the third pick at DE received $31MM guaranteed.
Haynesworth was the best defensive player in the league the year before, so you could argue it was reasonable (even though most agreed it was too much).
Jackson hadn’t played a game in the NFL at that point but the team picking 3rd had no choice to pay him that much. Now, he might not even make the team this year.
You’re right — the rookie wage scale is awful.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:16 PM
So Rusty as GM in 2010 before Bradford played an NFL game would rather have him over Brady.
Pretty much what I said before. Glad you’ve come around to my side.
The average expectation is about equal, the shapes are different. Like I said earlier. Maybe a little more certainty in year 1 from the Brady types. You can wish it weren’t true that for every Couch or Russell, there are also cases like a rookie Peyton Manning vs Steve Young or Aikman in ’98, or a rookie Elway vs. Fouts in ’83, or a rookie Aikman vs Montana in ’89.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:16 PM
To be fair to Tawmy, he’s got plenty left in the tank.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:16 PM
But look at all that Jeter marketing! They slapped a DJ3K on everything.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:16 PM
What about the guaranteed money Brady is going to earn in years 5 & 6, while Bradford is locked into his current contract?
Or the amount of money that Brady has already made that makes Bradford need the security more. Yeah, I know. I’m pro-union as a general rule and I think Mike is making a shoddy case that willfully misses the point of what Lisk is saying and has said in the past about the issue. But he’s technically correct, 50 is more than 48.5
July 14th, 2011 at 5:18 PM
Tom Brady isn’t declining, though — did you happen to catch any of his games last year?
July 14th, 2011 at 5:18 PM
I think I know which way you lean here chief.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:18 PM
this whole argument is why I like 3 and 5 contracts. If he’s a bust, a team isnt handcuffed for more than 3 years. If he outplays his contract, he can sign another larger contract for 5 years with the same team he chooses. Thats 8 years of an NFL career and after that, the number start to fall most of the time.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:19 PM
What a clusterfuck that comment was…oops
July 14th, 2011 at 5:20 PM
The Haynesworth deal was terrible, or are we only allowed to use hindsight when it comes to rookie performance?
July 14th, 2011 at 5:21 PM
can’t we all agree that rookies shouldnt be making as much as they are before playing a snap?
July 14th, 2011 at 5:21 PM
Tom Brady isn’t declining, though — did you happen to catch any of his games last year?
Never said he was. I would definitely pay a #1 overall pick more than a Hall of Fame caliber player already on decline.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:22 PM
Also, the Tyson Jackson pick was awful at the time. I don’t think that one needed any hindsight.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:22 PM
Lisk, the problem is that these guys are already being paid like they’re guaranteed to be the next Manning, Elway or Aikman, while leaving zero room for the possibility that they may in fact turn out to be the next Russell or Couch.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:22 PM
Tom Brady didn’t decline last year. It’s a 4 year contract. I know you’re probably in the bag for Daniel Syder, but giving out contracts like there’s no decline curve won’t work out over the long haul.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:23 PM
I remember PFT doing an expose of sorts on the guaranteed part of rookie deals. And I know that Russell didn’t get all of his guaranteed money, because he lost out on that last 10 million or so roster bonus when they cut him.
I’m not looking for it though.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:23 PM
Who said anything about hindsight?
Lisk, the Brady comment was directed at Rusty.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:23 PM
he’s currently at his peak, anything after this is… say it with me now… the downside of this career.
it may be gradual, it may be sudden. but he end is closer than the beginning of his career.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:24 PM
True, the Pats probably should have let him walk.
Again — I’m glad you’re not running my team. Stick to baseball.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:25 PM
It really is only a problem for the top 3-5 picks. Somebody like Chris Johnson, picked 24th, has more than out performed his rookie deal, but has yet to receive a raise.
Also, I think the Rams are fine with the contract they gave to Bradford, same for the Dolphins and Jake Long.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:25 PM
Just so MikeNYC doesn’t twist my words, here is exactly what I wrote:
“Brady is worth a little more than Bradford, but not by a huge margin. Brady appears safer early on, and is the better investment for a current contender. He also provides an earlier return on a large investment, which is also worth something. However, you shouldn’t expect him to get a substantially larger amount of guaranteed money, as very few star quarterbacks stayed productive past age 36, which would be the fourth year of any new deal.”
So, I would have played Brady slightly more, but not significantly more. He got slightly less but the Rams also got two extra years, so it’s arguable that Brady got more, depending on if you consider additional earning power in years 5 and 6.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:26 PM
Lisk – have they discussed how that rookie wage scale decreases throughout the picks? Or was it really only needed for the first round and the remaining picks will simply fall into place after that.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:27 PM
The next 4 seasons from Tom Brady will probably all be tremendous. He’s thirty-fucking-three, not 90.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:27 PM
We need some more ordinary player examples. These busts and HOF already QBs sound like exceptions. Somebody play w Jake Long instead
July 14th, 2011 at 5:28 PM
Lisk, the problem is that these guys are already being paid like they’re guaranteed
Stop right here. They’re being paid like they are expected to perform at a level that is commensurate with the upper echelon of the league at their respective position. It is not a personal valuation of how they stack up against generational outliers on a year over year basis. There is an expectation that over the life of the contract, which unfortunately in your world view has to begin when they start playing as opposed to starting when they become stars, the dollar value and the on-field performance will balance each other out.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:28 PM
Who pissed in barista Mike’s latte this morning?
July 14th, 2011 at 5:29 PM
im about to get ass dicked on Army Attack
July 14th, 2011 at 5:29 PM
This is so wrong. Bradford is being paid like he’s going to be a declining HOF quarterback.
He’s not getting that Tom Brady in his prime contract money.
Look at Roethlisberger’s 8 year $102 million extension ($36 million guaranteed) for a closer look at an “in his prime” valuation.
And then realize that it was 3 years ago, so factor in inflation. And then further realize that Big Ben is not in Manning/Brady’s class.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:30 PM
I think in this instance…the Pats just made a good deal. That’s all. They knew Brady wanted to be there, and didn’t want to go to another system on an inferior team. He was probably worth more than he got…but then again, he’s not even the breadwinner in his own family, so he can afford to leave a little on the table.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:30 PM
probably an overpaid NFL rookie and someone in the 47% of America who supposedly doesn’t pay taxes.
unforunately it made him angry but not any smarter.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:30 PM
Being that he never gets hit in 90% of games I think I can agree with that.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:32 PM
Hypothetical-
If lockout went into September, what stops NFL from starting season in October, have full season and play super bowl in March?
July 14th, 2011 at 5:33 PM
The next 4 seasons from Tom Brady will probably all be tremendous. He’s thirty-fucking-three, not 90.
Joe Montana at 33–Super Bowl MVP, one of best seasons by a QB ever, 9.1 YPA
Joe Montana at 34–above average, pro bowler, team lost in champ game
Joe Montana at 35–holding clipboard
Joe Montana at 36–holding clipboard
Joe Montana at 37–missed 5 games with Chiefs, above average, led team to victory over Buddy Ryan in playoffs
Joe Montana at 38–slightly above average
Joe Montana at 39–permanently retired to the upstairs to spank his monkey
July 14th, 2011 at 5:33 PM
maybe tv contracts…
July 14th, 2011 at 5:34 PM
This reminds me of when I used to argue that Jake locker’s career at UW wasn’t complete dogshit, and given the circumstances he actually did pretty well, and everyone would gang up on me, with Mike playing the role of me and the NFL rookie scale playing the role of Locker (or something). Only difference is he’s wrong and being completely irrational.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:34 PM
Age 35 should have said, back in traction, not holding a clipboard.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:34 PM
Scheduling…some stadiums are used for other events that have been scheduled for months/years. The would be extremely difficult to move logistically.
/my guess
July 14th, 2011 at 5:35 PM
This was a very unique situation. Thanks again, Leonard Marshall.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:36 PM
I used to argue that Jake locker’s
Mike’s right after all. Goddammit. If the #8 pick in the draft isn’t even worth the league minimum I can’t rightly argue effectively on behalf of the other guys in the draft being worth much even if it is cherry-picking to say that Jake Locker shouldn’t have been drafted at all
July 14th, 2011 at 5:37 PM
July 14th, 2011 at 5:38 PM
Scheduling…some stadiums are used for other events that have been scheduled for months/years. The would be extremely difficult to move logistically.
/my guess
That’s the only thing I could think of, but reallistically the NFL is the only league that could probalby pull it off with playing one game a week and weather not a issue.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:38 PM
Damn, all the stalking comments by my admirers threw me off for a second.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:38 PM
Keith Cash spiking the Buddy Ryan sign in that playoff game remains a fond memory.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:38 PM
Now I see why the lockout isn’t over yet.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:39 PM
+1. Perfect.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:40 PM
I like the conversation from Mike. It’s better than talking to my devoted Fox News viewer dad, who thinks the players should be paid literally nothing, ever.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:40 PM
I dont remember. I was too busy crying because I knew it was the end of Warren Moon and I wanted him to win in Houston
July 14th, 2011 at 5:46 PM
Lisk, the problem is that these guys are already being paid like they’re guaranteed to be the next Manning, Elway or Aikman, while leaving zero room for the possibility that they may in fact turn out to be the next Russell or Couch.
The real question is: If you took them all to dinner who would pay?
July 14th, 2011 at 5:47 PM
If you took them all to dinner who would pay?
Sanchez would drive, I know that
July 14th, 2011 at 5:49 PM
Funny, and you didn’t even use the P-word. Well done.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:50 PM
can’t we all agree that rookies shouldnt be making as much as they are before playing a snap?
Yep. Rookies will make their millions anyway. I just prefer for fans not to see their teams sink tens of millions into useless sacks of shit and be driven mad as a result.
See: Sullivan, Jonathan.
July 14th, 2011 at 5:55 PM
So, do you think we will see a full 17 game Thursday schedule. Even if it’s for only for half a season, it could generate $500M a year because Versus/NBC sports would easily pay that.
/knows nothing about labor law
//would like to see all Thursday night games moved from NFL Network because their coverage blows
July 14th, 2011 at 5:57 PM
i really don’t see how rookies are be making that much to begin with…only like 10 of em get paid a crazy amt. and lets face it…if teams had actually done their due dilligence on the players who busted in question, nobody would be complaining with having to pay that much.
it only seems like a lot when you’re paying reggie bush or matt leinart or jamarcus that much. seems like it’s pretty fair if you get mario williams or jake long. i have no idea what joe thomas’ contract is like because whatever joe thomas would make would’ve been worth it.
/browns need to pay joe thomas ASAP
//someone prolly said exactly what i just said above
July 14th, 2011 at 5:58 PM
So, do you think we will see a full 17 game Thursday schedule. Even if it’s for only for half a season, it could generate $500M a year because Versus/NBC sports would easily pay that.
Not this year, but yes. NFL has had long enough to use those games as leverage against cable companies, and it hasn’t worked. They probably will generate more income letting another network bid it.
July 14th, 2011 at 6:00 PM
No, nobody gives a shit about the Browns nor brings them up.
July 14th, 2011 at 6:02 PM
/browns need to pay joe thomas ASAP
Sat next to him in my stats class junior year. Nicest and smartest guy in the world. I had to go down to the front of the lecture hall and hand in one of his problem sets because he was in crutches and couldn’t make it down the stairs. Crazy to think two years later he was making millions in the NFL.
July 14th, 2011 at 6:03 PM
he was in crutches
he was using. dammit.
July 14th, 2011 at 6:04 PM
THE OVERALL GIST ASSHOLE.
god you fucking steeler fans are the worst. why don’t you just leave now and beat traffic for your meeting with steely mcbeam at a russian bathhouse and leave us be?
July 14th, 2011 at 6:04 PM
that’s fucking awesome.
July 14th, 2011 at 6:06 PM
F and U.
Lifelong Oiler fan (cut my teeth during the Luv Ya Blue days on Big Bad Earl) and that Oilers team would have won it all but for that stupid fukin Chiefs team. Coming off the previous year’s debacle in Buffalo, I think most Oilers fans were a bit numb to the Chiefs loss, but for me, that loss to Montana hurt more because the possibility of a championship was never higher for an Oilers team.
July 14th, 2011 at 6:06 PM
Reading all the discussion of contracts was interesting. I don’t understand much of it, but interesting nonetheless.
/puffs on pipe
//bubbles come out
July 14th, 2011 at 6:06 PM
Agreed. Doing a favor for some immobile fatty sounds scintillating.
I kid, because I care.
July 14th, 2011 at 6:08 PM
Lifelong Oiler fan (cut my teeth during the Luv Ya Blue days on Big Bad Earl) and that Oilers team would have won it all but for that stupid fukin Chiefs team. Coming off the previous year’s debacle in Buffalo, I think most Oilers fans were a bit numb to the Chiefs loss, but for me, that loss to Montana hurt more because the possibility of a championship was never higher for an Oilers team.
Number is the way I’d describe myself. I’m still not over watching the Bills come back from 35-3.
Don Beebe fucking stepped out of bounds! He was an ineligible receiver right in front of the lineman and he didn’t call it! It’s fucking bullshit!
/that’s for jpq if he’s out there lurking.
July 14th, 2011 at 6:09 PM
Numb…not number. I’d blame it on autocorrect, but I’m not on my phone.
July 14th, 2011 at 6:09 PM
I have it on good authority that tO$U are the worst.
/Had a meeting, so just now catching up.
July 14th, 2011 at 6:18 PM
A player who was paid to be one of the best at his position from the get-go and has lived up to it…weird that you never hear guys like him brought up in these discussions, too easy to just cite JaMarcus Russell
July 14th, 2011 at 6:21 PM
Well Butters, when a guy plays as horribly, apathetically, disgracefully as he did and so clearly does not give a fuck about anything but purchasing jewelry like this, it’s kind of difficult not to think of him first and foremost.
July 14th, 2011 at 11:14 PM
Why shouldn’t the proven players get the bug bucks? Let the early picks get incentive-laden contracts for a short term with a decent signing bonus. IfCam gets 7 mill guaranteed on a 3 year deal he is set for life. Now offer 2 mil per season and incentives like rookie of the year, pro bowl, stating x-amount of games…Hell, give him money for a +3,000 yards from scrimmage season. The problem is giving unproven rookies too much $ for just showing up at camp. The whole point of teams getting early round picks is so that the lesser teams can catch up and compete. If those teams miss with a Jamarcus or a Leaf, then then draft order means nothing, but to Fuck over the already fucked few.
July 14th, 2011 at 11:33 PM
They don’t?