Most Improved Passing Offenses Involving Rookie Quarterbacks
Yesterday, I talked about the number of rookie QBs who could be starting this year, and also took a historic look at how much impact a rookie starter had on the passing offense rate stats compared to the predecessor.
Today, I’m going to give you a Top Nine list of the Most Improved Passing Offenses with Rookie Quarterbacks. I’m calling it that rather than “best” because this is an objective list that looks at how a rookie quarterback did relative to the main quarterback the season before. As I always say, teammates matter, and we will in fact see that with some of these guys. Also, the worse the offense was the year before, the more room for improvement. Some of the names on this list meet your perception; others may surprise you. These were the 9 largest improvements between how a rookie performed in league-normalized Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANYA+) versus the primary starter for the same team the previous season.
Why nine? Well, these were the only ones where there was at least one standard deviation improvement in passing numbers, there was a gap, and if I went to ten, it would include Heath Shuler just in front of Joe Flacco.
9. Rick Mirer, Seattle, 1993. A surprise right out of the gate, as Mirer most certainly is considered a bust. The offense improved from dreadful under the immortal Stan Gelbaugh – with a side of Kelly Stouffer and Dan McGwire – to merely below average in Mirer’s rookie season, and the team went from 2 to 6 wins. I offer Mirer as a cautionary tale for those already touting Sam Bradford (who does not appear on this list because Bulger was only marginally worse than Bradford) as a superstar, as they put up similar numbers as rookies.
8. Drew Bledsoe, New England, 1993. Back in 1993, it was Bledsoe and Mirer as the next hope. Bledsoe and an emerging Ben Coates and Bill Parcells taking over as coach resulted in an improvement over the dark ages that were Hugh Millen, Scott Zolak and Tommy Hodson.
7. Rodney Peete, Detroit, 1989. You think a rookie named Barry Sanders may have had a little something to do with this passing offense improvement?
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh, 2004. Big Ben is one of the most unique quarterbacks in history. If it is possible, he is both overrated and underrated–overrated by those that look just at rings (the defenses haven’t been shabby) but underrated by those that go to the opposite extreme. He made a big impact when he came in to replace Tommy Maddox as a rookie en route to a 15-1 season, and has been one of the 5-6 best quarterbacks when he plays.
5. Matt Ryan, Atlanta, 2008. Last season, Ryan got a little too much praise, only to then have it turn against him in the playoffs, but let’s not forget how disastrous the Atlanta organization was in the wake of Bobby Petrino and Michael Vick. Ryan immediately stabilized the team and helped turn them from 4-12 to 11-5 in one season.
4. Doug Williams, Tampa Bay, 1978. If it weren’t for his later revival with the Redskins as Super Bowl MVP, Doug Williams may have been unfairly overlooked. His Tampa career is probably underappreciated. He never completed a high percentage, but what he did do was avoid interceptions and sacks while throwing a nice deep ball. As a rookie, he started for a team that had won 2 of 28 games, and got them to a miraculous 5 wins, and then an improbable NFC Championship game a season later.
3. Jim Plunkett, New England, 1971. Here’s another where the narrative doesn’t fit the player. Plunkett is largely considered a failure until he emerged with the Raiders a decade later. In truth, he went from playing with bad teams to a loaded one. The year before, the Patriots brought in gutsy intangible winner Joe Kapp after he had a contract squabble with the Vikings. Turns out, he wasn’t very good when backed by a historically dominant defense, and his Patriot tenure was forgettable. As the #1 overall pick, Plunkett turned that offense into league average, which was actually quite the feat.
2. Steve Bartkowski, Atlanta, 1975. I was shocked that it was Bartkowski, not Ryan, near the top of this list. Bob Lee, the guy Bartkowski replaced, is one of the more unique players that no one knows–a real boom or bust player. In 1973, he put up a ridiculous 14.1 yards per completion and the Falcons almost made the playoffs for the first time ever. The next year, he fell apart, took a sack on 15% of his dropbacks, and averaged 5.0 yards per attempt as the Falcons got the #1 overall pick. Bartkowski turned in a near league average performance as a rookie, then struggled through two injury filled seasons before leading Atlanta to the playoffs in 1978 and again in 1980.
1. Dan Marino, Miami, 1983. Marino tops the list, and it isn’t particularly close. David Woodley was horrible, yet the Dolphins somehow managed to make the Super Bowl in 1982 with a combination of Woodley and Strock. After the team started 3-2 with Woodley, while he averaged only 5.9 ypa and just over 100 yards per game, Shula made the switch. Marino averaged 7.5 yards per attempt, as the offense took off and the team finished 12-4. Just how big was going from David Woodley to a Hall of Fame quarterback that was among the most NFL ready of all-time? If we convert the difference to 2011 dollars, it was a little bigger than the difference between going from Derek Anderson in Arizona to Tom Brady in New England.
[photo via Getty]

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86 Responses to “Most Improved Passing Offenses Involving Rookie Quarterbacks”
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July 12th, 2011 at 4:38 PM
Where’s Jimmy Clausen???
July 12th, 2011 at 4:38 PM
My first year as a Patriots fan, watching the rookie take over for the last 11 games.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:39 PM
surprised peyton isn’t on this list.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:40 PM
Underrated as a QB; overrated as a “Winner”; rated appropriately as an asshole.
Nice post Lisk.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:40 PM
Where’s Sanchez!?!?! That no-name schmuck he took over for was worthless!!!!!!!!!!!
July 12th, 2011 at 4:40 PM
The media will never let us.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:41 PM
Surprised to see him there, though the jump from 2 to 6 games isn’t much to write home about. Those were good times in Seattle.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:41 PM
If you just look at games started by these rookies, do the numbers get stronger even? With Bledsoe, you could say that the maybe team improved and he was just a part of it, or he was the main improvement of the offense, depending on the first 4 games vs the last 12 (small sample size obviously…)
July 12th, 2011 at 4:42 PM
Surprised to see him there, though the jump from 2 to 6 games isn’t much to write home about. Those were good times in Seattle.
It’s a testament to the suckitude of Stan Gelbaugh
July 12th, 2011 at 4:42 PM
Maybe… but damn I’ve seen him make some great 4th quarter throws.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:43 PM
Colorado State legend. How the fuck did he ever get picked 6th overall?
July 12th, 2011 at 4:43 PM
If you just look at games started by these rookies, do the numbers get stronger even? With Bledsoe, you could say that the maybe team improved and he was just a part of it, or he was the main improvement of the offense, depending on the first 4 games vs the last 12 (small sample size obviously…)
that would have required a lot more work. In most cases, it was 1-2 games as a partial player at best.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:44 PM
Probably because Harbaugh was not terrible the year before.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:44 PM
Properly rated as a winner.
/lights sanders signal
July 12th, 2011 at 4:45 PM
The thing is that it appears more and more that Hasselback won’t be re-signed, which raises questions as to what they’re going to do next year. More sucktitude may be on the horizon for the ‘Hawks I’m afraid.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:46 PM
This plus the ringz usually would mean automatic HOF, but Plunkett is denied because he’s Mexican.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:46 PM
1992 Patriots: 4.0 NY/A
1993 Patriots: 5.6 NY/A
1993 Scott Secules: 6.3 NY/A
1993 Drew Bledsoe: 5.4 NY/A
Not sure what it means, but it’s interesting nonetheless.
/only to me
July 12th, 2011 at 4:46 PM
surprised peyton isn’t on this list.
He threw a shit ton of INTs as a rookie
July 12th, 2011 at 4:46 PM
the 28 picks he threw as a rookie probably keep him off this list. Plus, I don’t think Harbaugh was exceedingly bad in 97.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:47 PM
Where’s Sanchez!?!?! That no-name schmuck he took over for was worthless!!!!!!!!!!!
2008 NYJ QB- 6.7 YPA, 22 TD, 22 INT (9-7 as starter)
2009 NYJ QB- 6.7 YPA, 12 TD, 20 INT (8-7 as starter)
July 12th, 2011 at 4:47 PM
I will hear no badmouthing of Hugh Millen.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:47 PM
If he didn’t have so many stalls of the offense during quarters 2 and 3, they would be running the ball in the 4th instead of needing those great throws.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:47 PM
(4 GS, 0-4 for Secules; 12 GS, 5-7 for Bledsoe)
July 12th, 2011 at 4:48 PM
Peyton’s rookie year was AWFUL. The rest of the ride has been amazing.
/Thank God we didn’t take Leaf.
//yes I said “we”
July 12th, 2011 at 4:49 PM
We have differing definitions of ‘amazing’, sir.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:49 PM
It’s been real Lisk.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:49 PM
Ballz… Caught that race in full last night, that was some great racing. Can’t believe Vettel’s crew cost him that race. Alonso was tearing the shit out of that track, but I don’t think he catches and passes Vettel without that miscue. Also, that attempted pass on the last lap by Massa on Hamilton was some sick racing too.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:49 PM
holy fuck. he got shittier ?
July 12th, 2011 at 4:50 PM
This makes me happy. Very happy.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:51 PM
The Mierda Sanchez love around here needs to stop right now
July 12th, 2011 at 4:52 PM
If your team has had Peyton or Tommy at the helm for the past 10 or so years, it has been amazing. Do I really need stats?
July 12th, 2011 at 4:52 PM
It was good to see that Alonso pulled away so quickly. He won by more than 16 secs. I didn’t expect that.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:53 PM
Don’t lump Brady in with Manning.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:53 PM
holy fuck. he got shittier ?
I don’t think it’s a black mark that a rookie puts up similar numbers to Favre, but any difference between the Jets in 2008 and 2009 was related to tiebreakers getting into the postseason and how the defense played with Revis, not because the passing got better.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:54 PM
im going to record the F1 race this weekend. Where are they at? im not a huge fan of road courses but im willing to give it a try. I mean NASCAR is doing everything they can do make the product on the track suck so I have nothing to lose.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:54 PM
LISK, you mind sharing the rookie QBs who finished at the absolute bottom of this list?
July 12th, 2011 at 4:55 PM
holy fuck. he got shittier ?
No. Line 1 is Brett Favre, line 2 is Snachez
July 12th, 2011 at 4:55 PM
The fuck it does. And Lisk was comparing Farve’s Jet season to Mexigod’s rookie season.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:55 PM
I think Hamilton holding up Vettel and Webber helped intially, but he did continue to pull away even after Vettel got into 2nd. He just really seemed locked in that race, car was dialed.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:55 PM
Bledsoe started the first five games in 1993, then was injured, then started the final 7 or whatever. I didn’t remember that at all, I thought he took over at the end.
/changes it to 1994 as my first Patriots season
//sees 10-6 record
///shuns self as bandwagoner
////cries
July 12th, 2011 at 4:55 PM
I confused that for his first two season. My bad
July 12th, 2011 at 4:55 PM
Whenever I see that, I unfortunately get this stuck in my head
July 12th, 2011 at 4:56 PM
Typo or no typo, this should stay this way.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:56 PM
LISK, you mind sharing the rookie QBs who finished at the absolute bottom of this list?
I bet Aikman would be on that list even though he’s being compared to Steve Pelleur
July 12th, 2011 at 4:56 PM
I was being completely sarcastic.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:57 PM
Troy Aikman
July 12th, 2011 at 4:57 PM
LISK, you mind sharing the rookie QBs who finished at the absolute bottom of this list?
I’m not at home right now, so I don’t have the work in front of me.
Leaf was dead last.
Aikman and Freeman were near the bottom. (Garcia was pretty solid, and Freeman was only 21)
July 12th, 2011 at 4:57 PM
They’ve been on FOX the past two races, and said it would be there for the next one too. This race was only my second F1 race ever and I’m easily hooked. These cars are the cream of the crop in the racing world and it’s really good racing.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:57 PM
You are right.
1. Peyton
2. Brady
July 12th, 2011 at 4:58 PM
Whenever I see that, I unfortunately get this stuck in my head
which is why I do it.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:58 PM
Was thinking of him, and Byron Leftwich as well (who was a big downgrade from Brunell).
July 12th, 2011 at 4:58 PM
im going to record the F1 race this weekend. Where are they at? im not a huge fan of road courses but im willing to give it a try. I mean NASCAR is doing everything they can do make the product on the track suck so I have nothing to lose.
The next race isn’t this weekend it’s the weekend after. The German Grand Prix. At the Nurburgring. Not the Legendary, gigantic Nordschliefe course, but the less awesome, smaller southern course.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:58 PM
Oh, and if you meant location instead of station, I think it’s Germany for the next one.
July 12th, 2011 at 4:59 PM
I don’t know if he has enough time to show up in your listing but Donovan McNabb’s rookie numbers were pretty atrocious. And I admit that Snachez was just a typo
July 12th, 2011 at 4:59 PM
Lisk where were Bradfords numbers? Not much of an improvement?
July 12th, 2011 at 4:59 PM
Off the top of my head, Gradkowski and Andrew Walter were also at the bottom of the list. Oh, and the guy for the Lions in the ’70′s that later turned into a criminal. Names escaping me.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:00 PM
/facepalm
July 12th, 2011 at 5:01 PM
Lisk where were Bradfords numbers? Not much of an improvement?
Bradford was at 89, Bulger at 87 in 2010. Bradford threw a lot more passes. Pass defense efficiency is where the Rams improved, by the numbers.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:01 PM
Eric Hipple is the only name of any Lions QB that I can remember before Rodney Peete. Was he around in the 70s anddid he turn into a criminal?
July 12th, 2011 at 5:02 PM
I fear this is out of your hands now.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:02 PM
LOL
July 12th, 2011 at 5:03 PM
Does your office or bedroom look like the shed in “A Beautiful Mind”?
/team stats
July 12th, 2011 at 5:03 PM
The infamous Jeff Komlo.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:04 PM
Now that would be a track to hold a race. It has something like 120+ turns?
July 12th, 2011 at 5:05 PM
No criminal, his 15 year old son committed suicide. What is criminal is the Lions have sucked for a long, long, long time and sucked with Peete and Sanders in the backfield.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:05 PM
If he didn’t have so many stalls of the offense during quarters 2 and 3, they would be running the ball in the 4th instead of needing those great throws.
I love this. He’s a game manager because they have a good defense (true) and good running game (not true), but he also has a bunch of 4th quarter comebacks because he sucked for 3 quarters.
Why is it so hard for people to admit that he’s a really good/great QB that is totally unconventional. I think he’s better behind the Steeler line than any QB in football would be, but would be worse most top flight QB’s are in their particular offense. Right guy in the right place.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:06 PM
The infamous Jeff Komlo.
that’s him. Google Jeff Komlo and fugitive. He had to start as a rookie because Danielson was out all year, and was horrible.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:06 PM
Neither have won shit without Adam Vinatieri.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:06 PM
I know. The old footage from the late 60′s with those classic old cars with no wings catching air on the hills is amazing. Alas, they stopped racing there in the mid 70′s. Thanks a lot, Jackie Stewart. I guess the drivers got tired of all the death and maiming that happened there.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:07 PM
Jeff Komlo Bio
July 12th, 2011 at 5:08 PM
Think the episode of ‘Archer’ where they went to Monaco and hijacked those racecars.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:08 PM
Well said. I hate him for three quarters sometimes, but for the most part in the fourth, he’s nails.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:08 PM
I know it mostly from when they’ve been there on Top Gear. The best was when they raced a Transit Van around the track.
Imagine living in a village in the middle of a race track though?
July 12th, 2011 at 5:08 PM
+1 VHS tape of sideline signals
July 12th, 2011 at 5:10 PM
I do think he should be in the HoF
July 12th, 2011 at 5:10 PM
I know it from Gran Turismo 3. It’s also in that Cadillac commercial that’s always on.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:11 PM
According to wikipedia, it’s 160 turns.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:16 PM
Holy shit
July 12th, 2011 at 5:18 PM
Nevermind. 13 miles, 154 turns.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:18 PM
Ballz, do come up for MotoGP?
July 12th, 2011 at 5:22 PM
If you’re asking if I watch MotoGP, no. I watch too many sports already. I have caught a few races though.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:27 PM
It was more of a “It is at Laguna Seca next week, are you coming up? I don’t want to meet you, I was just curious if you attended” kind of way.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:32 PM
I used to go there every year to watch the Indy races. You live in/near Monterey?
July 12th, 2011 at 5:47 PM
Mr. Beef…not sure if you are still around, but ya, I live in the Bay Area.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:55 PM
Likewise, work in Palo Alto. Cool.
July 12th, 2011 at 5:56 PM
Komlo Lives…….