Will the Last Blogger Who Takes a Dump on Jonah Lehrer’s Sabermetrics Piece For Grantland Please Turn Off the Lights?
The statistical revolution in sports may have reached its apex Tuesday when Jonah Lehrer, writing for Grantland, wrote this piece on Sabermetrics.
Grantland hasn’t yet worked its way into my rotation of websites yet, so I didn’t see Lehrer’s piece until the evening, by which point it had already been picked apart by the notoriously thin-skinned statistical community like a carcass by the side of the road.
(Before going further, it should be noted Lehrer is probably smarter than you – he majored in neuroscience at Columbia, and studied at Oxford for two years as a Rhodes Scholar. It seems he may have drifted outside of his comfort zone in this piece, which was all over the place.)
The first dismemberment I saw was by Tom Scocca of Deadspin. I heard a rumor a week ago there was some trepidation (read: fear) among a few writers at Grantland about having their work dissected by the likes of Scocca and Tommy Craggs, and what Scocca did to Lehrer’s piece will only add to the rumor. Scocca linked to a Baseball Prospectus piece by Colin Wyers that ended like this:
Lehrer dresses his argument up in a Malcolm Gladwell-like pop sociology motif, but it’s the same argument that curmudgeony old sportswriters have been using since the dawn of time: these geeks aren’t really sports fans. Not like the rest of us. If only they could get their heads out of their spreadsheets now and then, they could learn to live life a little, enjoy themselves a bit.
Well, guys, I appreciate your concern, I really do. But do me a favor, would you? Just shut up. I know which end of the bottle the beer comes out of, I really do. I’ve watched ballgames outside, in actual sunlight—no, really. If knowing that a pitcher’s BABIP against rate in a small sample is largely unpredictive of his rate in a larger sample makes it harder for you to enjoy watching a game, I’m sorry. But if knowing more about baseball makes it harder for you to enjoy the game, then I’m really not seeing your case that you’re the better fan than someone like me.
I know those things and I still love baseball. Love love love it. And you can have whatever opinion you want to of people like me and the work we do. But stop, please, just stop questioning whether or not we love baseball. It’s demeaning, it’s insulting, and it’s been a hoary old cliché for longer than I’ve been alive. Let it rest in peace.
Then came the biggest surprise: Tom Haberstroh of ESPN’s True Hoop ripped it apart:
I have not met a sabermetrician who believes that there is nothing to be gained outside of the realm of analytics. Intangibles exist and they have power, even if sabermetricians have struggled to pinpoint and measure that power. No sabermetrician would honestly believe that they are all-knowing. That is precisely why they have strapped themselves in for this quest for objective information.
Haberstroh’s piece had the feel of a lecture – as if he were a veteran of a statistical society who shouted down some mouthy newbie during rush week.
Finally, Lehrer responded on his Wired blog. I actually thought this wasn’t a terrible retort:
Even when we pay lip service to intangibles – and everyone does – those intangibles are still mentally devalued by our newfound reliance on numbers. We can’t help it. There’s just no way to plug the intangible variable (say, the quirks of personality, or the comfort of a front seat) into our rigorous model. And so what we do? Well, if you believe the decision-making literature, what we often do is neglect that hunch, that sly intuition, that errant feeling, since it suddenly seems so unserious. That’s just the way we think.
Read more takedowns of Lehrer’s piece here and here and here.

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109 Responses to “Will the Last Blogger Who Takes a Dump on Jonah Lehrer’s Sabermetrics Piece For Grantland Please Turn Off the Lights?”
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June 29th, 2011 at 3:41 PM
I noticed Grantland has Rany Jazawockyiliey writing for them now.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:42 PM
Well then Ol’ Alfred Einstein there probably should have done a quick Google search to realize that his example of the Dallas Mavericks as being a counter was really bad since they were ahead of the game when it came to using advanced metrics to build a roster
The Prospectus rebuttal was the best, just a brutal attempt by Lehrer there
June 29th, 2011 at 3:45 PM
I read Klosterman’s analysis of Led Zeppelin’s last concert in England at Knebworth in 1979. It was actually pretty entertaining.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:45 PM
he’s got a point.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:45 PM
Please direct all feces throwing to Chuck Klosterman.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:46 PM
best one yet.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:46 PM
Let’s leave the appeal to authority out of this. He’s a smart guy who wrote a shit article.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:47 PM
i loved it.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:47 PM
lol
June 29th, 2011 at 3:48 PM
So he’s a good test taker. Everyone knows those test are culturally biased.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:48 PM
/Team Katie Baker
June 29th, 2011 at 3:48 PM
Shit, just realized that in my attempt to make a Joe Theismann joke I screwed up…he said “Norman Einstein”, now I just look like an asshole
June 29th, 2011 at 3:49 PM
That was a really cool video. I like his point at the end of the article about how that was Led Zeppelin at their absolute worst, yet that was a pretty awesome performance.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:49 PM
We neglect our hunch? What do our hunches have to do with it? We don’t make substitutions to setup a lefty on lefty situation.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:50 PM
Maybe I will read this but it does not change that statistical analysis of bands abortion.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:50 PM
i think it’s hard to look at them 30 years after the fact…they’re almost an accepted part of the musical/rock hierarchy that they don’t usher in nearly the heated debate they must’ve at their peak.
and i promise my dad wasn’t the guy in cleveland klosterman mentioned.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:51 PM
That’s been the frustrating thing about Grantland so far. They have had a number of writers I like, even love to read, yet when they write about sports, they are just out of their league. Take the Dave Eggers article on Wrigley Field as an example of someone who should just stay away from sports.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:51 PM
Rollie re-signed with Tampa 1yr 3 milly.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:51 PM
I’m surprised Tom Haberstroh was able to get the Miami Heat’s dick out of his ass long enough to write about something non-heat related
June 29th, 2011 at 3:52 PM
Lehrer’s response is great.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:53 PM
Like the link in comment 6 says, that’s not an intangible variable.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:53 PM
Grantland hasn’t yet worked its way into my rotation of websites yet,
I go there and I see more that I don’t want to read than i do, but I am so far liking Molly Lambert, even though I mostly disagree with her.
I have yet to read anything by Chuck Klosterman. I’ve started one or two and realized my favorite part of them was the clickable X in the corner.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:54 PM
Uninformed drivel that thing was.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:54 PM
I’m officially excited for July 17
June 29th, 2011 at 3:54 PM
Kariya, THE MIGHTY FUCKIN DUCK! Retired.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:54 PM
as an example of someone who should just stay away from sports.
as long as you’re telling people to stay away from writing about sports, please also remind Matt Taibbi. Thanks.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:55 PM
Really? Or is that just your hope since you don’d understand them?
June 29th, 2011 at 3:56 PM
the beatles do not have a 1.0 no matter how butthurt ballz gets.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:56 PM
Shots fired!
/takes cover
June 29th, 2011 at 3:58 PM
Thank you for writing this TBL. The backlash against Grantland has gotten insane.
I don’t understand the anger and obsession that much of the online sports writing community has towards Grantland. It seems like at least once a week since the launch of Grantland multiple writers have attacked a Grantland piece. IMHO talented writers like Craggs should be producing original pieces about sports instead of wasting their time attacking other peoples work. The online sports writing community seems to have turned into a cliquish group of high school girls who are calling the new girl in school a slut every chance they get.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:58 PM
I also think that knowing what Klosterman sounds like has ruined his writing for me. Because he sounds like a grating tool and I can’t help but read his articles that way.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:59 PM
i like grantland even if i don’t like the articles…provides long-form stuff to poop to.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:00 PM
i’m very excited for it, but i’m torn since my wife and i are getting directv to save almost $400 a year in cable bills and they don’t have amcHD. i have to keep telling myself that breaking bad is not worth $400.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:00 PM
It helps that he keeps focusing on basketball since that level of advance metric study is underdeveloped compared to baseball…the paragraph about how he wants to believe Rick Carlisle made starting lineup moves based on gut-instinct was and then citing +/- rating as the reason Barea wasn’t the better option was enjoyable
June 29th, 2011 at 4:00 PM
I like Chuck’s books but am ambivalent towards his columns
June 29th, 2011 at 4:00 PM
Blue Jackets trade a 7th for rights to Wisniewski. Have until Friday to sign him before he becomes an unrestricted FA. It moves to a 5th if they sign him. A real life PP guy on the blue line would be pure gold, Jerry, pure gold.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:01 PM
Once the girl puts out a little more she will just be another whore like the rest of them.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:01 PM
I just went to Grantland and found something to read that seems interesting and fun. Just like that. It was written by the masked man, though, so it’s probably something I would have easily found even if Grantland didn’t exist.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:02 PM
i think it’s b/c it’s a thinly veiled attempt by ESPN to launch a non corporate sponsored blog to seem more edgy and hip.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:02 PM
That is correct.
Some things on Grantland I like. Some things I don’t. I’m unpredictable like that.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:02 PM
@thesportshernia
Here was my problem with the response and I tweeted it TBL earlier: If you believe in stats, it’s not enough to say that Barea must have been the statistically-minded call, when we have no idea what those stats might be. (And when the stats we do have, such as +/-, suggest he wasn’t.)
Actually most people agree that plus/minus in basketball is worthless, it doesn’t take into account the other people on the floor. No team looks at a player’s plus/minus independent of other factors and makes playing decisions based on them.
So for him to argue that mavs went against stats is fucking stupid. Add to it the point of the article was about the misuse of stats, it makes this supposedly smart man look even dumber because he is misusing them.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:02 PM
Breaking Bad might be. But Breaking Bad in HD? Probably not.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:02 PM
With you there.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:03 PM
read Klosterman’s analysis of Led Zeppelin’s last concert in England at Knebworth in 1979. It was actually pretty entertaining.
i thought it was entertaining only because i love zeppelin so much. but i found it to be a bit confusing as well, kind of hard to find his point.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:03 PM
/deletes draft ripping on Jonah Lehrer
//turns out light
June 29th, 2011 at 4:04 PM
Someone disagrees with me on the Internet! Shoot him!
June 29th, 2011 at 4:04 PM
yeah, i can only hope directv adds amcHD in the next two years, or at least puts their content online.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:04 PM
the paragraph about how he wants to believe Rick Carlisle made starting lineup moves based on gut-instinct was and then citing +/- rating as the reason Barea wasn’t the better option was enjoyable
I miss Irish Mafia. He’d tell you right here, right now, that NBA playoff basketball is about matchups (and so would Dallas’s optimization coach). Chalmers was a bad matchup for Barea, Bibby was a great matchup for Barea. Get Barea on Bibby, fast.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:06 PM
Thank you for writing this TBL. The backlash against Grantland has gotten insane.
I don’t understand the anger and obsession that much of the online sports writing community has towards Grantland. It seems like at least once a week since the launch of Grantland multiple writers have attacked a Grantland piece. IMHO talented writers like Craggs should be producing original pieces about sports instead of wasting their time attacking other peoples work. The online sports writing community seems to have turned into a cliquish group of high school girls who are calling the new girl in school a slut every chance they get.
I think there were valid criticisms, but I also think this is a good analogy.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:07 PM
I do wish Grantland would stop pandering for page views with this Royals/Jazerlyi piece. We get it. Royals drive ratings. Have some integrity.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:07 PM
You can’t just watch it on regular amc? I find an actors performance, storylines, and writing to be far more important that a clearer screen when I’m watching a TV program.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:07 PM
Someone remind me, a couple of years ago in the playoffs, didn’t Girardi make a huge in-game decision based on stats that completely backfired on him causing a huge backlash from writers and bloggers alike? Can anyone help me out?
June 29th, 2011 at 4:08 PM
Which time? He and that big binder were a disaster couple
June 29th, 2011 at 4:09 PM
Someone remind me, a couple of years ago in the playoffs, didn’t Girardi make a huge in-game decision based on stats that completely backfired on him causing a huge backlash from writers and bloggers alike? Can anyone help me out?
I don’t remember him removing Jeter for a defensive replacement, but maybe he did.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:09 PM
KC or British?
June 29th, 2011 at 4:09 PM
I can see that and why people in general may think that is funny. But it just seems like there is this hatred towards Grantland and that so many bloggers are sitting back and waiting to attack any article that they think is off base.
I agree with Clay in that I see more things that I don’t want to read than I do want to read. But I get at least one or two articles a week there that are good reads. Lambert, Baker and Kang have all produced some good pieces.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:10 PM
+47
Note: I don’t want this site be part of the clique. I don’t think we are, either
June 29th, 2011 at 4:10 PM
This is true, but Breaking Bad is filmed very interestingly, with tons of cool shots. I went from seasons 1-2 on blu ray to season three in standard def. Still a great show, but better in HD.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:11 PM
To whoever asked why people are so quick to rip apart Grantland pieces (maybe not for this piece in particular since it was rather odd), I think it’s pretty obvious. Many of them are hoping for the eyes of Bill Simmons to light up and force him to promptly fire off an email with an offer letter to come join the Grantland team.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:11 PM
The Bill Belichick 4th down decision against Indianapolis might fit this bill, but I think opinion was split as to what the correct decision was.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:11 PM
I recall a pitching change that didn’t work one time, funny thing about probabilities is that even if you have a 99% chance at success you can still fail
June 29th, 2011 at 4:11 PM
I’m back from reading the piece at Grantland I liked. It was about wrestling. I thought it was good, even though I dont’ watch wrestling.
My favorite piece not to read is the one that says “Renee Richards wants to be left alone.” I like to imagine that if I click it, it will just say the title way, way bigger, with a footnote that says “seriously, stop.”
June 29th, 2011 at 4:12 PM
of course i can watch it on a regular screen, i just like watching HD on a HD tv.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:12 PM
That god damn binder. It was against the Angels.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:12 PM
It’s possible to enjoy Grantland and still think Lehrer’s piece was a steaming loaf, right?
June 29th, 2011 at 4:13 PM
The Bill Belichick 4th down decision against Indianapolis might fit this bill, but I think opinion was split as to what the correct decision was.
guy got his balls out, and showed them. They were big, and they were brass. That’s one of my all time favorite football plays.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:13 PM
The Bill Belichick 4th down decision against Indianapolis might fit this bill, but I think opinion was split as to what the correct decision was.
The Mainstream sportswriters were 99% against Bill. It brought out the hatred and pettiness and people talking about how it was his hubris. Blogs were more evenly split, with many at least defending the move as well, defensible given the circumstances.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:13 PM
It’s possible to enjoy Grantland and still think Lehrer’s piece was a steaming loaf, right?
racist
June 29th, 2011 at 4:14 PM
I don’t think the criticism of this Lehrer article has to do with Grantland in any way. I’m fairly certain that Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs and probably every other outlet that wrote about it would have done so regardless of where the article appeared. I like a lot of the things that have been posted there, but this one was really pretty bad.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:14 PM
Note: I don’t want this site be part of the clique. I don’t think we are, either
you know you just wrote a grantland piece for pageviews, right?
/You’re the ninth ugliest girl, the one who used to be homeschooled, but has money.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:15 PM
You just cant argue with the intangibles Griffey brought to the M’s the last couple years.
Every time that guy stops playing for them, the team gets better.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:16 PM
That’s why I said “maybe not for this piece in particular”
June 29th, 2011 at 4:16 PM
and mainstream journalism isn’t like this? they’re even worse…they seem to collectively think that we give a flying fuck about the tedium of their job. at least bloggers are passionate about the subject and not just mailing bullshit articles in that are more sports journo bar talk than sports writing.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:16 PM
Which kind of begs the question which clique you are in…
June 29th, 2011 at 4:17 PM
I think that’s it. He had a pitcher who was performing relatively well but pulled him for a reliever because he liked the matchup better. Said reliever proceeded to give up game-tying or game-winning run. Media and bloggers proceeded to rip Girardi a new one.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:17 PM
Grantland gets nitpicked because it’s new shiny. And the Internet picks apart everything that is new and shiny. We REALLY fucking like new and shiny.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:17 PM
Well that’s not entirely true. If CRM put posted after the Olchympics masterpiece, it probably wouldn’t have been dissected like this.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:18 PM
Islanders won’t be signing getting Erhoff.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:19 PM
I should check my work more often.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:19 PM
Lisk, I agree with you that there are valid criticisms for Lehrer’s piece. I should have mentioned that as well. You did a fantastic job making your case today for why TO should be in the HOF. Great read and a good takedown of Pasquarelli’s piece. However, I would probably stop reading your pieces if every week you had a column which attacked a Pasquarelli article. At that point any valid criticism of Grantland is lost in the white noise of the online sports writing community attacking anything that Grantland puts out there.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:19 PM
I think Grantland brought the backlash on themselves. When you take the pompous name of the site, add it to the hype it got before an article was published, then top it off with simmons, who I like but understand why others hate, you are asking for this type of vitro. Basically this is the Miami Heat of sports blogs/reporters, so when they don’t produce people are going to go right at them. They put the target on their back, so I think it is fair game to go at them.
Personally I look at the site like I look at the Simpsons. Better to have it there even if it isn’t as good as the old stuff, then to not have it at all. However, Katie Baker should be fired immediately or write an article that isn’t a 7th grade self interview.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:19 PM
The deadspin layout is a couple of months old and we still fucking hate it.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:21 PM
I should check my work more often.
The Olchympics has feces flinging, masturbating relays, and face devouring. But the US’s best chimp athletes don’t participate, because they prefer eating processed banana pancakes.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:21 PM
To whoever asked why people are so quick to rip apart Grantland pieces (maybe not for this piece in particular since it was rather odd), I think it’s pretty obvious. Many of them are hoping for the eyes of Bill Simmons to light up and force him to promptly fire off an email with an offer letter to come join the Grantland team.
/turns lights back on
//tries to salvage draft from archives
//adds Karate Kid reference
June 29th, 2011 at 4:21 PM
That’s true, but I don’t think I’ve read a tweet about how much it sucks in a long time.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:23 PM
I blame dak, Junior and Ken T. They did it right, but it brought on a whole mess of shitty imitators who see ripping any article as a chance for page views and/or notoriety.
/this Grantland piece deserved the take downs though
June 29th, 2011 at 4:24 PM
Lisk with the leg sweep!
June 29th, 2011 at 4:25 PM
Link to Ol-Chimp-ic glory.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:25 PM
This. Can barely read Kotaku anymore and now it isn’t even working on my phone. Worst site redesign ever.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:25 PM
Talking about this reminded me of that post Lebatard did here a while back as the Mariotti nonsense was going on. Not sure why, but I read it again and enjoyed it.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:26 PM
The metrics all said Johnny Lawrence was a lock, Daniel LaRusso didn’t fucking care (although at the time they didn’t know how to account for the crane kick)
June 29th, 2011 at 4:27 PM
The deadspin layout is a couple of months old and we still fucking hate it.
I used to go to that site everyday. Now I barely pop in twice a week. None of the stuff on there is good anymore. They pumped up that ESPN book like it might bring the company down. (It didn’t) Deadspin hookup Failure? As a weekly feature? To the surprise of nobody here, I’ve had plenty of my own hookup failures. I don’t want to read about someone else’s that may or may not be embellished because they want to get it published on the site.
Grantland hasn’t made my website rotation yet. I’m still trying to figure out what I want to get out of it.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:27 PM
I’m with The General. I was told Grantland was “intellectual” and “sophisticated” but its largely pop culture garbage, sports observations, and wrestling. That’s fine, but don’t tell me it’s anything new.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:27 PM
Fangraphs chimes in:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/beating-up-the-sabermetric-strawman/
June 29th, 2011 at 4:28 PM
Talking about this reminded me of that post Lebatard did here a while back as the Mariotti nonsense was going on.
LeBatard’s one of the few people in sports journalism that I believe has a brain and uses it well. I just wish he would stop being so naive about athletes and their behavior sometimes.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:29 PM
Sponsored posts never deliver on the hype.
except for chicken legs.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:29 PM
Dear Tyler…
June 29th, 2011 at 4:29 PM
The Olchympics has feces flinging, masturbating relays, and face devouring. But the US’s best chimp athletes don’t participate, because they prefer eating processed banana pancakes.
Flagrantly racist
June 29th, 2011 at 4:34 PM
From the Fangraphs piece:
This paragraph should be enough to end all the fussin’ and the feudin’ about the subject
June 29th, 2011 at 4:41 PM
That paragraph is wonderful and should be a standard handout for sports fans on the internet.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:51 PM
Exactly.
Huh?
Look, Craggs is a good writer, but when did he become the arbiter of uneven writing?
OOHHH, TOMMY CRAGGS!!!
/cowers in fear
//wanking motion
And Scocca wrote for Slate, which automatically makes me not take him seriously.
June 29th, 2011 at 5:32 PM
SomeoneEveryone disagrees with me on the Internet! ShoothimThem!/fixed
June 29th, 2011 at 5:43 PM
Basically, yes.
Scocca is a good writer too, but I’m not entirely sure where he’s coming from. You can’t just be anti-. That might be because I haven’t read enough of his work, of course, but it also might be because he’s a talented sophist. Or a computer program.
June 29th, 2011 at 5:47 PM
where did craggs write before deadspin?
June 29th, 2011 at 6:28 PM
I think a lot of people missed the point of the original article…
June 29th, 2011 at 7:42 PM
My favorite part of the Deadspin response:
June 29th, 2011 at 7:45 PM
My favorite part of the Baseball Prospectus piece:
June 30th, 2011 at 9:35 AM
Simmons blows. So does this sabermetrics crap.
July 11th, 2011 at 5:51 PM
Funny thing is, it worked except the bobble. Wasn’t like it got stuff like a Barry Sanders playoff run.
/earlier