Comments on: NFL Draft 2011: Draft Philosophy, Best Player Available, and How the Rich May Get Richer in 2011

By: YoungmanU2

YoungmanU2 — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 00:15:31 +0000

I also think it’s useful for a team to trade down and accumulate more picks if their guy they had pegged – via bpa analysis – is not there and they see several players so closely ranked they don’t see a big differential. And, they can also still take a shot and draft for need in that area. This really starts to happen from the middle of round 1 on. How many players will bust from round 1? Generally you can figure about 15-20.

By: Wide Word of Sport (?)

Wide Word of Sport (?) — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 21:11:09 +0000

Sometimes it doesn’t even take one… you can just invent your own market!

/ Scott Boras’d

By: starkweather

starkweather — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 21:10:35 +0000

I want to read more about Maurice Clarett. His time as a star will come this fall when the UFL gets that new week-to-week deal with NBC

By: Gerard Portmanteau

Gerard Portmanteau — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 21:07:42 +0000

If half the teams thought Russell wasn’t worth a pick at all, and half think he is a top 10 pick, then even though opinion is very much mixed, he is going to go high.

Exactly. The old “it only takes one” cliche has a lot of truthyness, here. Especially if the “one” is Mike Shanahan and the object is Marcus Nash/Willie Middlebrooks/Paul Toviessi/Jarvis Moss.

By: Wide Word of Sport (?)

Wide Word of Sport (?) — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 21:05:59 +0000

Would be a lot better for 2nd/3rd rounders though…. shit I don’t know what the best way to study this, you may have had the right idea all along, Lisk.

By: Geeezeus

Geeezeus — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 21:04:24 +0000

Man, I am getting excited for the draft. Its nerdy, but I loved almost as much as the games.

The NHL draft lottery last week was must see TV for me. The draft(s) is one of my favorite events of year.

By: Wide Word of Sport (?)

Wide Word of Sport (?) — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 21:03:36 +0000

I wonder if you could use games started as a rookie as a stand-in for drafting for need and use that to look and see if teams do ‘reach’ for need

By: BrawnyTom

BrawnyTom — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 21:02:04 +0000

Man, I am getting excited for the draft. Its nerdy, but I loved almost as much as the games.

By: starkweather

starkweather — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 21:01:37 +0000

Well, there was a lot of speculation about the Redskins trading up for Harrington, IIRC, so he had some PR around him at the very least

By: Wide Word of Sport (?)

Wide Word of Sport (?) — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 21:01:20 +0000

http://sports.outsidethebeltway.com/2007/04/2007-nfl-draft-grades/

Here’s a nice post where a bunch of people pick the Raiders as ‘winners’ for picking Russell and no mention of risk. I don’t think there is any good way to study this prospectively. ESPN’s guys are just too dumb.

By: BrawnyTom

BrawnyTom — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 20:58:37 +0000

Then again, maybe its revisionist history on my part.

By: Jason Lisk

Jason Lisk — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 20:57:57 +0000

Here’s the thing about draft picks. At an auction, value is set by the 20% that value someone the most, and not by the 20% that value him least. If half the teams thought Russell wasn’t worth a pick at all, and half think he is a top 10 pick, then even though opinion is very much mixed, he is going to go high.

By: Wide Word of Sport (?)

Wide Word of Sport (?) — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 20:57:43 +0000

You’re gonna want an intern/grad student if you want to google search each year and figure it out by going to links like this: http://espn.go.com/melkiper/s/2001/0422/1177521.html

By: BrawnyTom

BrawnyTom — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 20:56:58 +0000

FWIW, Harrington and Jamarcus were not considered reach picks at the time

I seem to remember many people had Joe Thomas and Calvin Johnson rated higher, but yeah the Raiders were not the only team willing to take him at the top.

As far as Harrington, I just remember being shocked at how for Bryant Mckinnie fell. I thought he, Carr, Peppers and Jammer were the best prospects.

By: Wide Word of Sport (?)

Wide Word of Sport (?) — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 20:56:09 +0000

WWoS. Do you know where to get last 10 years of predraft opinion by ____ (Kiper, somebody else). My fear is I cant get enough info. I would gladly look at it. I just want to have some methodology before I embark, rather than doing what guys like Clayton do and just cherry pick examples.

I dont, and I wish I did. I really like what you do, asking the question ahead of time before you look, and you know I’m a sucker for hypothesis testing, I just don’t know the best way to study it.

By: Wide Word of Sport (?)

Wide Word of Sport (?) — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 20:55:07 +0000

Give me Sam Bradford and Jason Smith over Antrel Rolle and Levi Brown.

Yeah… I feel like we answer that just by picking four random guys and comparing. The best way really is a prospective cohort study, which given the lack of numbers/power, and the little problem of only 10 top ten picks a year, not sure how that would work.

By: Jason Lisk

Jason Lisk — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 20:54:59 +0000

WWoS. Do you know where to get last 10 years of predraft opinion by ____ (Kiper, somebody else). My fear is I cant get enough info. I would gladly look at it. I just want to have some methodology before I embark, rather than doing what guys like Clayton do and just cherry pick examples.

By: Wide Word of Sport (?)

Wide Word of Sport (?) — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 20:53:08 +0000

FWIW, Harrington and Jamarcus were not considered reach picks at the time

Is that true? I don’t remember that well, but I remember thinking all along that this is a guy who couldn’t consistently start for LSU and got drafted basically because he beat ND and Brady Quinn in a bowl game…

By: Jason Lisk

Jason Lisk — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 20:52:54 +0000

FWIW, Harrington and Jamarcus were not considered reach picks at the time

Harrington, slightly. He would have gone by #15 to someone, but I don’t remember him being the slam dunk top 5 pick going in. JaMarcus definitely. There was mixed opinion on him, but enough people raved about him that he was going early to someone.

By: BrawnyTom

BrawnyTom — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 20:52:10 +0000

Is it better to nail a great pick along with a bad one, or get two average ones when you draft early.

Give me Sam Bradford and Jason Smith over Antrel Rolle and Levi Brown.