2011-2012 College Basketball Preseason Rankings Way, Way Too Early

2011-2012 college basketball preseason rankings when the season is still seven months away? Sure. The NBA lockout figures to have a massive impact on players who leave early, so I’ll amend this in a month. When we did this exercise last year, eventual champ UConn was nowhere to be found.
1. Ohio State (34-3, Lost in Sweet 16). Expected to return their best player (Jared Sullinger), point guard (Craft), wing (William Buford) and 7th man (Thomas). Strong recruiting class. Without Diebler, Sullinger will see a lot more double teams, so Thomas will have to light it up. The Big Ten will be considerably weaker. Assuming Sullinger & Buford return, OSU should be a No. 1 seed next March.
2. Kentucky (29-9, Lost in Final 4). Everyone will have them No. 1 because of a dope recruiting class, all of whom are likely to start because Knight and Jones are probably NBA-bound, and Harrellson graduates. But how will the holdovers (Lamb, Liggins, Miller) mesh with the incoming studs? We’ll either see a Wall-Cousins result (which reached the Elite 8 and wasn’t bad), or this year’s version (I thought much better than the 2009-2010 team). The Wildcats will obviously win 22-26 games in the regular season and be in the mix for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
3. Texas (28-8, Lost in 2nd Round). The Longhorns are this high because their best two players, Tristian Thompson and Jordan Hamilton, have said they’ll return. They’ll lose Balbay, Lucas and Johnson, three valuable contributors. But TT & Baby Miner, plus solid contributors J’Covan Brown & Cory Joseph, plus a great recruiting class led by Myck Kabongo will make the Longhorns one of the most athletic teams in the nation, and heavy favorites to win the Big 12. (Kansas is supposedly losing the Morris Twins and Selby, plus they graduate Morningstar and Reed. You have to wonder if Thomas Robinson bothers to return.) If I were putting down a cigarette money on a team to win it all next year, I’d do that with Texas, which will probably be a longshot to win the title. Too bad Rick Barnes will find a way to ruin it in March.
4. UNC (29-8, Lost in Elite 8). My guess is Harrison Barnes leaves, but Tyler Zeller stays. (Take this Chad Ford note however you’d like – “Williams told Barnes that he would go somewhere between No. 5 and 11 in the draft, according to a source familiar with the discussion.”) Both are lottery picks if they want to come out. John Henson shouldn’t follow the lead of guys who had a game exactly like his – Ed Davis & Brandan Wright – and depart early, but he might, too. Point guard Kendall Marshall is very good, and surrounded by wing players – Bullock, McDonald, Strickland – he should thrive. If Henson stays, and Bob McAdoo’s nephew steps in for Barnes, 25+ wins is within reach.
5. Syracuse (27-8, Lost in 2nd Round). The graduation of Rick Jackson is a damaging loss, but Kris Joseph coming back for his senior year is huge. I’d pick Syracuse to win the Big East but I don’t know if Boeheim can sort out of the Triche-Jardine (both of whom shot 41 percent from the field) backcourt. At times, I much preferred the freshman (Waiters) than both of them. And with Top 20 PG Michael Carter Williams coming in … Boeheim may have trouble finding minutes for everyone. I really liked the contributions of Fair throughout his rookie year and Fab Melo came on strong at the end. If incoming freshman Rakeem Christmas can play with Melo inside, the athleticism everywhere else is enough for a Final Four run.
6. Duke (32-5, Lost in Sweet 16). Surprised? They’ll lose Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith to graduation, and very likely budding star Kyrie Irving will depart to the NBA, where he’ll be a Top 5 pick. But Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry will be back, and they’ll get lots of open looks thanks to incoming point guard Austin Rivers (son of Doc). They’ll still have an NBA frontline (Ryan Kelly: 6-11; Plumee brothers 6-11), but again, not much offensive ability inside. First or second (as usual) in the ACC, and a 1-2-3 seed in the NCAA tournament. The big question: Who creates their own shot off the dribble?
7. Louisville (25-10, Lost in 1st Round). Barring some strange NBA early-entrant decisions, the Cardinals will only lose one player from their rotation – leading scorer Preston Knowles (who only shot 37 percent from the field and jacked 7 three-pointers a game). The Cardinals will probably be the 2nd best team in the Big East (slightly behind Syracuse), likely starting a Siva-Smith-Kuric trio, Jennings in the middle, and perhaps freshman Chane Behanan at PF. The recruiting class is solid. Plus, they can use that Morehead State defeat as motivation.
8. Connecticut 32-9 (Won NCAA title). Putting the Huskies here, but with an enormous asterisk because I really do think Jeremy Lamb will declare for the NBA after putting on a show in the NCAA tournament. If Lamb does return, they’ll have a nucleus that should contend with Louisville and Syracuse in the Big East. The frontcourt (Olander, Oriakhi and Roscoe Smith) has serious potential, if it plays the way it did in March. Napier should start at PG, backed up by freshman Ryan Boatright (unless Calhoun wants to treat Boatright as Kemba, and play both point guards, plus Lamb). Jamal Coombs-McDaniel and Niels Giffey provide depth. With Lamb, there’s Final 4 potential; without him, the Huskies are probably still a Top 30 team that might have some offensive issues.
9. Michigan (21-14 Lost in 2nd Round). Love the Wolverines next year – especially if Darius Morris doesn’t go to the NBA. Beilein is a terrific coach. They lose no seniors. They’re collecting sons or siblings of former/current NBA players, which is always a good thing. Not sure how much these two recruits will help, but with the Big Ten down, I expect the Wolverines to be the 2nd or 3rd best team (Illinois? Purdue? Michigan State?) in that conference.
10. Memphis (25-10, Lost in First Round). The way Josh Pastner recruits, think of the Tigers as Kentucky-lite. Best case scenario – Barton, Black, Jackson and Witherspoon all decide to return next season (Witherspoon probably flirts the most with the NBA, but he should stay). Add super-recruit Adonis Thomas into that mix and the Tigers easily have the most talent in CUSA. Can Pastner coach them out of the AAU mindset, though? If so, they should be in line for another 25 wins and this time, a few in the NCAA tournament.
11. Vanderbilt (23-11, Lost in 1st Round). All five starters return. Definitely the 2nd best team in the SEC. John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor could both make a run at 1st team All-SEC. A solid recruiting class should add depth. Kevin Stallings just needs to find way out of the first round of the NCAA tournament – his last three trips there with Vandy have ended in disaster.
12. Butler 28-10 (Lost in Title Game). Brad Stevens is still the coach. I could just stop there, but there’s plenty of talent returning. Matt Howard is obviously a major loss, but perhaps Andrew Smith will learn to avoid foul trouble and develop a few post moves. Khyle Marshall finished his freshman season strong and should slide into the starting lineup. Since Shelvin Mack isn’t going pro (right?), he’ll team with Ronald Nored to try and get the Bulldogs to a third straight Final Four. At this point, can you doubt Stevens? Hopefully, one of their two recruits can provide some offense.
13. Florida (29-8 (Lost in Elite 8). It’ll be tough to duplicate a run to the Elite 8 without your SF, PF and C (Parsons, Tyus, Macklin), but the Gators will return their backcourt (Walker and Boyton), plus transfer Mike Rosario (who was pretty good at Rutgers), and add a Top 10 recruit in Brad Beal. The problems: Can they get enough inside out of Erik Murphy? And will there be enough basketballs to go around for all the guards who liked to shoot?
14. Cincinnati (26-9 (Lost in 2nd Round): Probably the 4th best team in the Big East. (Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Notre Dame and West Virginia lose a lot.) The Bearcats return three of their top four scorers, and if Mick Cronin can coax some more offense out of the backcourt, and a decent recruiting class pans out, the Sweet 16 should be well within reach.
15. Xavier (24-8 (Lost in 1st Round). Should dominate the Atlantic 10 again (15-1 last season). Their best player (and the conference POY) Tu Holloway is back (can’t imagine he’ll test the NBA waters), along with two of the team’s top four scorers. Their best 3-point shooter, Brad Redford, will return from injury. They’ve even got a Top 75 recruit coming in. As long as coach Chris Mack doesn’t jump ship for another job (NC State?) this week … the goal should be the Sweet 16.
Just Missed/Sleepers: George Mason returns four of five starters, but loses its leading scorer … UCLA would have made the top 15 if Malcolm Lee hadn’t declared for the NBA last week … Villanova loses a lot, but it could be addition by subtraction, as a Wayns/Cheek backcourt will be very good … Sean Miller seems to be building something nice in Arizona, which should finish 1st or 2nd in the Pac-10 … Can you really leave Gonzaga off any of these lists? If Elias Harris and Robert Sacre return, pencil the Zags in for another NCAA tourney trip …

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82 Responses to “2011-2012 College Basketball Preseason Rankings Way, Way Too Early”
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April 5th, 2011 at 1:03 PM
But it’s not even Aug yet.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:05 PM
what if kemba returns?
/he’s not
April 5th, 2011 at 1:05 PM
But it’s not even Aug yet.
+1
April 5th, 2011 at 1:05 PM
OH COME ON
April 5th, 2011 at 1:06 PM
I’ve never blatantly bitched about a post before.. but come on, this is so stupid.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:06 PM
Hard to put Butler that high without Matt Howard, they’re most valuable player at least the past 3 years.
I think Ohio St. could be even better if they stop relying on the 3-pointer.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:06 PM
I think Jordan Hamilton could break out kind of like Kemba did this year.
You have Louisville and Michigan waaaaaaaaaaayyyyyy too high.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:07 PM
go bucks!
April 5th, 2011 at 1:07 PM
If there is a lockout won’t a lot of players return?
April 5th, 2011 at 1:08 PM
I don’t know why everyone’s complaining–tons of blogs and otherwise reputable sites do this all the time after the end of the college basketball or football seasons. Though it’s tougher to know who’s losing who in basketball.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:08 PM
If there is a lockout won’t a lot of players return?
There are about a million different factors that could make this list irrelevant.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:09 PM
CJ – Flyers put Leighton on re-entry waivers. Interesting to see if someone takes him.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:10 PM
You weren’t around much at the end of last summer, were you?
April 5th, 2011 at 1:12 PM
C’mon man!
April 5th, 2011 at 1:14 PM
did it last year. will do it every year.
college hoops is my favorite sport.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:15 PM
oh, and about the lockout – the players won’t know if there will be a lockout by the time they have to apply. see that NYT link at the top.
they have to make a decision before the NBA season is even over.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:17 PM
Well then they should all stay in school. Especially Derrick Williams*
/unless phx wins the lottery
April 5th, 2011 at 1:17 PM
SU alum here.
Jardine is going to stunt the growth of our young guys and ultimately prevent us from reaching our potential. good kid, just way too inconsistent/trigger happy for a big time point guard.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:19 PM
of all the things to bitch about, you bitch about the entirety of the post? HE HAS MICHIGAN 9TH!!!! That’s something to go after.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:19 PM
One of my least favorite players to watch last year. Classic case of a guy who thinks he’s 10 times better than he really is.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:20 PM
Contingent of course on Derrick Williams staying, and the Pac-10 deciding not to add Colorado and Utah.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:25 PM
If there is a lockout won’t a lot of players return?
Unless it’s obvious that a lockout won’t be happening, I’d be telling kids to stay in school and play another season in CBB. The last thing they want is to find themselves ineligible and sitting around while the NBAers figure their shit out.
BTW, I’m almost certain that the NBA will lockout and that it’ll be a prolonged lockout. The financial situation of the league is not that great and teams have to get some sort of financial certainty.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:25 PM
No way was this year’s Kentucky better than last year’s. This year’s team was 2-6 in SEC road games.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:28 PM
Nana Nana booboo, stick your head in doo doo?
I think Duke is a little too low.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:30 PM
I’m also really angry that the media is giving Calhoun a pass on their way to annointing him as an all-timer. the ncca keeps finding ways to prove their ineptitude/selective punishments.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:31 PM
See, you see what you did? The site died.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:32 PM
I’d say there is at best a 5% chance of avoiding a lockout…and any early entries are armed with that same knowledge. Whether they will know for sure before they declare is irrelevant, as everyone will just operate under the assumption that there will be a lockout.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:33 PM
Knight is probably coming back to UK.
/dodges Jay V’s shoe
April 5th, 2011 at 1:37 PM
No shoe…it sounds like that is likely now…and it’s a horrible, horrible decision. And if Calapari is advising him to stay…then he is a massive hypocrite (but we knew that already).
April 5th, 2011 at 1:39 PM
kid is a good student, has a good head on his shoulders. he may not feel like he HAS to play basketball in the Association to be successful.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:40 PM
CJ – How do you feel about Beckett tonight going against the Tribe? I looked and saw he’s got some bloated numbers against Choo but everyone else doesn’t hit him well or hasn’t faced him.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:41 PM
I’m also really angry that the media is giving Calhoun a pass on their way to annointing him as an all-timer. the ncca keeps finding ways to prove their ineptitude/selective punishments.
He’s in rarefied air right now with his 3rd title. What would you like them to do; skewer him right after he wins a national championship? If you look at some of the most highly successful coaches and managers, you’ll notice that they all have an assholish streak. They don’t have to be nice.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:41 PM
True, plus he comes from a good family that has money. He’s already a JUNIOR credit wise, so he may just come back next year and get the degree.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:43 PM
I dont know what to think SC. He usually has crappy Aprils too. But its Cleveland. And he’s the ultimate losing streak stopper. Im hopeful for the win.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:44 PM
actually the day after the championship is an acceptable time to discuss next year…unless weber leaves or get fired illinois will continue to be hot garbage
April 5th, 2011 at 1:44 PM
Also…the 2010 UK team would beat the 2011 UK team 85-90 times out of 100.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:45 PM
This. Easily. Except if maybe Enes is allowed to play.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:45 PM
Hey now! Beware of Jack Hannahan!
April 5th, 2011 at 1:46 PM
I’m excited to see Andrew Cashner’s first regular season start here in about 40 minutes. About time we gave the young guys a shot early on. He’s got electric stuff, but like most young kids, needs to work on his command. Wish there was another day game on though for commercial purposes. Having the Cubs certainly makes the work day go a lot faster though.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:47 PM
Since TBL routinely shits on MLB which is second only to the NFL for me I considered questioning why anyone would consider college hoops to be their favorite sport but this site and the Twitter have done wonders to show that hating on what others liked for no reason is a total dick move
Still say some way, some how the Badgers will end up ranked and then lose to a mid-major in the NCAA Tournament…that program is as predictable as a sunrise
April 5th, 2011 at 1:48 PM
Let me preface by saying that John Wooden was the greatest CBB coach and a great teacher of the game, but the shit going around with Sam Gilbert and the players would have destroyed him today.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:48 PM
Cousins would stick Harrelson with 3 fouls within 10 minutes every single game. And this year’s team has nobody who could effectively guard Wall (or Patterson for that matter).
April 5th, 2011 at 1:48 PM
Kills self
April 5th, 2011 at 1:49 PM
Enes on Cousins
Harrelson on Patterson (where Patterson drops 40)
Liggins on Wall
This years Liggins >>>>> last years Liggins. I don’t think Knight could contain Wall.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:50 PM
If Gibbs returns, Pitt has to be a top 15 team. Otherwise how can they lose a second round game as a 1,2 or 3 seed?
April 5th, 2011 at 1:50 PM
agree the 2010 UK team would beat the 2011 UK team.
but given the choice of a team … give me the one that did the unexpected (slightly overachieved) with teamwork than the one that underachieved
April 5th, 2011 at 1:51 PM
Too bad Rick Barnes will find a way to ruin it in March.
Kills self
Have some faith — when Barnes has a big-time PG, the Horns are much more effective on the offensive end. And they have a big-timer coming in next year.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:51 PM
It’s easy to be great when have no NCAA breathing down your neck. He makes Calipari look like a choir boy…http://www.esquire.com/the-side/feature/college-basketball-history-2009
April 5th, 2011 at 1:51 PM
WWS – How is Pitt a Top 15 team?
Panthers lose tons.
also, he declared for the NBA.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:53 PM
ALso, I’d like to take this time to say I can’t wait for Terrence Jones to be off this team. I’ve never seen a guy care less about what was going on during the game. Calipari, Robic and Antigua rode that guy all year and he still didn’t give a shit. It’s a shame too because his talent could take over any game, but by the middle of the year it just seemed that he was just thinking of the NBA.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:54 PM
The media did not give Calhoun a pass on the violations. He was hammered pretty hard when they first came out and in almost every interview they alluded to them. This was the first time he ever got exposed for something like this. Bitch about the Rudy Gay situation all you want but at that time paying AAU coaches for exhibitions and camps was not against the rules.
If you want to discount everything Calhoun has accomplished because of the Miles situation that is your right and I have no counter to your argument. But his coaching ability is not up for debate, he is a great basketball coach.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:54 PM
He should be back unless a Euro team offers him something and he doesn’t want to come back to school but that doesn’t seem to be the indication.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Michigan too high. But, still nice to see Michigan hoops getting mentioned outside of NIT talk.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Yes.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:56 PM
NBA teams definitely take a look at the fact that he had a favorable match up in every game in the tourney and did nothing (other than rebound).
I love his game, but the comparison to Tim Thomas is striking.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:57 PM
This kid from Pittsburgh did the Fridge a solid.
April 5th, 2011 at 1:57 PM
I love his game, but the comparison to Tim Thomas is striking.
Ouch . . . not a good comp (except in terms of dollars made, I guess).
April 5th, 2011 at 2:00 PM
As a Syracuse fan, Scoop Jardine can go fuck off
April 5th, 2011 at 2:01 PM
They always are a top 15 (or at least 25) team, and I said if Gibbs comes back. Pitt has had a few players declare and come back historically, and it’s probably about 50-50 Gibbs is there. If he comes back they lose Wannamaker (big loss) and Brown (a loss), and McGhee, (a net gain) so they need to replace one guy, with Woodall/Taylor/Robinson/Zanna increasing their roles, and the #1 recruit at center coming into town.
They should actually be significantly better at the 4/5 positions… so all they really need is to get one of their FR/SO guys to play the 3 and be a decent scoring option. I don’t think being undersized at guard is enough to really kill them.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:01 PM
They had a great regular season. I guess that’s meaningless in college basketball.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:01 PM
His parents let him use $8500 from his COLLEGE fund to buy sports memorabilia? Someone ought to reimburse him.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:02 PM
Pay the regular season!
April 5th, 2011 at 2:03 PM
April 5th, 2011 at 2:04 PM
It seems very telling that when UK started playing their best basketball of the season, it was as Terrence Jones became less and less of a factor.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:05 PM
Yup, “underachieving” means one bad night shooting the ball against a pretty good West Virginia team…Calipari can join Bill Self in the Fraudy Fraud Fraud Club
April 5th, 2011 at 2:05 PM
they didn’t really have a bad tourney. WVU just went unconscious from 3.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:06 PM
The Fridge having stints at an Ace Hardware Convention? That makes me sad.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:07 PM
Nope. Underachieved.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:09 PM
The NBA lockout figures to have a massive impact on players who leave early, so I’ll amend this in a month. When we did this exercise last year, eventual champ UConn was nowhere to be found.
Those look like 2 pretty good reasons NOT to go through this exercise right now.
And yet I just read it.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:11 PM
UNC will have all of its starters back. Add in the already potent bench with the incoming freshmen and you seriously might have the second or third most talented UNC team ever (behind 84 and 09). Thats the kind of team that starts the season #1. Where they finish? Who knows. Where do they start? Top of the heap.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:12 PM
TBL, you should at least put Pitt as an honorable mention. Given their potential losses, but fantastic track record of overcoming losses, I think they deserve it.
/Won’t even be mad if you take a cheap shot at good regular season-tourney flameout while you do it
//yes I will
April 5th, 2011 at 2:16 PM
TBL – let me help you with that asterisk
(won NCAA title*)
April 5th, 2011 at 2:17 PM
This list is an absolute joke if you leave off Pitt. Despite their tournament failures, they are perennially a top 15 team. They return their best player (Gibbs), lose only 3 of their 8/9 man rotation, & bring in impact recruit Khem Birch.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:18 PM
It would be nice if someone gave the kid back his money for his college fund but those parents are idiots… or maybe they’re diabolical and thought buying the ring and giving it back to the Fridge would turn into a potential income producer worth more than $8500.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:19 PM
Why is everyone so upset over this post? This is what every CBB site in the world will do within a week of this game ending. The look-ahead-to-next-year post is always cool. I love the CFB ones.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:20 PM
We have Patrick Young. He’ll start at center. I would expect Prather to be at PF. We won’t be as big as we normally are, but we’ll be a much better scoring team next year.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:21 PM
needs more Razorbacks
April 5th, 2011 at 2:24 PM
I think one person was.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:24 PM
Sad face.
That’s actually their 2012 class. They have three guys coming in next year. Roosevelt Jones will be a stud.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:24 PM
Why is everyone so upset over this post? This is what every CBB site in the world will do within a week of this game ending. The look-ahead-to-next-year post is always cool. I love the CFB ones.
Perhaps I was a little harsh. But I’m the guy who thinks predictions are useless. If Butler doesn’t make a shot they lose in the first round to Old Dominion; and how can you predict whether or not a guy makes a shot? Regardless, if you put up last years predictions right after the Championship game, and then did next years predictions, I wouldn’t have so much beef.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:30 PM
Because we are bitter TBL doesnt put as much effort into OUR favorite sports, that’s all.
April 5th, 2011 at 2:31 PM
Duffy should have a CL preview up in an hour. No need tof ret, CJ.