NBA Stock Up, Stock Down From the NCAA Tournament (Yup, It Includes Jeremy Lamb)

Last March, Xavier’s Jordan Crawford exploded in the NCAA tournament and went from sophomore with a nice game (who was only a commodity because he dunked on LeBron in a pick-up game) to 1st round pick. Crawford was traded to the Wizards recently and has enjoyed a fantastic two-week run. Which players have seen their NBA stock rise during this NCAA tournament?
Brandon Knight, Kentucky: Struggled against Princeton for 39 minutes, then hit the game winner. He’s gone bananas since that game, dropping 30 against WVU, hitting the game-winner to beat Ohio State, and then scoring 22 in the regional final win over UNC. One would assume he’s salivating at the rematch with Kemba Walker – Knight was 3-for-15 in his worst game of the regular season in a November loss to UConn. Knight’s got a lethal 3-point shot, great court vision, and he kind of reminds of Gilbert Arenas (in his prime in Washington). I love Knight’s game and frankly, I think he’s a Top 5 pick. Think he’d be a nice fit joining Tyreke Evans in the backcourt in Anaheim.
Terrence Jones, Kentucky: Nobody denies his skill set, but he’s struggled this month. Freshman wall? Already thinking about the NBA? In his last 8 games, he’s 27-for-77 (35 percent shooting). He’s not getting to the line much anymore, opting to settle for jumpers. Calipari seems annoyed with his occasional bouts of laziness, and frequently yells at him. I still think he’s a Top 10 pick, kind of in the Lamar Odom mold, but not quite as polished (Odom was ridiculous when he left Rhode Island, and an instant 16-7 guy with the Clippers).
Harrison Barnes, UNC: He had a much-publicized slow start, but then he turned clutch and became the scoring machine everyone thought he’d be. I still think his shot selection was spotty at times, especially with automatic buckets on the floor in Tyler Zeller. That makes me think Barnes will leave for the NBA. He’s ready, too. He went from being the No. 1 pick, to out of the Top 10 (at least I thought so), and now he’s got to solidly back in the Top 5. I heard Doug Gottlieb say Barnes had some Paul Pierce in him, and that’s not a bad comparison. How much would John Wall like to have Harrison Barnes on the wing?
Kyle Singler, Duke: Should he have come out after winning the Final Four MVP? He didn’t have a consistent season, but he showed flashes of being a successful small forward in the NBA. What’s the guess here … Chase Budinger? Singler does a lot of things well, but excels at nothing. Could be a nice reserve for a playoff team. I’m thinking he’s drafted in the mid-late 20s.
Nolan Smith, Duke: Outstanding year (ACC POY), looked like a future NBA point guard (albeit an offensively-minded one). Then, when Kyrie Irving returned, Smith showed he couldn’t really play off the ball. Blame the coaches? Or the offense? Smith reminds me of Utah’s Andre Miller, who has turned into a fine player. Depending who comes out, I think he could sneak into the lottery. After Irving, Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight, are there any better point guard prospects? I’d take Smith over Fredette (mostly because of defense).
Derrick Williams, Arizona: Depending on who wins the lottery, he could go first overall. At times, he’s looked like Blake Griffin dunking on people. He’s got the inside-outside game reminiscent to Larry Johnson (before injuries curtailed a great career). For fun: If Minnesota gets the No. 1 pick, can you imagine Williams and Kevin Love at the 3-4? Perhaps that’d be enough to lure Ricky Rubio over here. If the Cavs get the No. 1 pick, I still think they might go with Kyrie Irving.
Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut: Went from timid freshman to valuable scorer to struggling shooter (a 18-for-48 shooting stretch in six of seven games bridging February and March) to future star in the span of a season. A few weeks ago, it was, “Lamb’s going to be a future star at UConn” to “Wait, is Lamb a lottery pick right now?” He’s got the smooth baseline game of Rip Hamilton, but also the length/athletic ability of Tracy McGrady attacking the basket. In a draft that’s all about potential, you pretty much know what you’re getting from guys like Kemba Walker and Jimmer Fredette. What is Lamb’s ceiling? Is he done growing (6-foot-5)? He turns 19 in May. Imagine the Cavs get two top 10 picks, and they draft a teenage backcourt of Irving and Lamb. Not a bad start to rebuilding post-LeBron.
The Morris Twins, Kansas: Really nice college basketball players, or future pros? I still can barely tell the two of them apart. Last year, the Jayhawks somehow kept Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich and were supposed to win a title … they lost in the second round. Do the Morris twins return and make Kansas the favorites? I think they’re gone, but I’m not sure how much damage they’ll do at the next level. I see them both as Drew Gooden-like – terrific rebounding machines who are limited offensively. If you want to put one of these guys next to Dwight Howard, then sure, they could have a nice career. Problem is, there aren’t many great centers left in the league, so the Charles Oakley/Otis Thorpe/Dennis Rodman/Power-Forward-Who-Rebounds role is kind of fading. Unless you think the Morris twins could play center (like Ben Wallace) alongside a power forward who scores (Amare, Dirk, Aldridge, Love, etc).

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92 Responses to “NBA Stock Up, Stock Down From the NCAA Tournament (Yup, It Includes Jeremy Lamb)”
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March 28th, 2011 at 2:46 PM
Kentucky’s got Jay-Z in their corner. Winning.
March 28th, 2011 at 2:47 PM
Who is the 3?
March 28th, 2011 at 2:48 PM
Stock down: Tristan Thompson. Definitely needs more seasoning.
March 28th, 2011 at 2:49 PM
He’s a third guard off the bench. I’ll give him a chance to be more than this but not much.
The parallels between Terrence Jones and Tim Thomas are too great to ignore. I love Jones’ skill set but I worry about his mental makeup.
Randy Foye.
The former.
March 28th, 2011 at 2:50 PM
Thought he said he was staying? link earlier in the roundup about him not hiring an agent.
March 28th, 2011 at 2:50 PM
A lot of people might write off UConn next year once Walker is gone, but they might be better assuming Lamb stays.
March 28th, 2011 at 2:51 PM
What? Please, i’d love to hear more thoughts on this. What’s wrong with his game?
March 28th, 2011 at 2:54 PM
It’s the same problem that has plagued hundreds of guys in the same situation coming out of college like Joe Forte, Troy Bell, etc. They’re too small to play the 2 and not quick enough nor have the handle to play the point.
Sure, he could crack the starting lineup on a bad team and put up decent numbers, but he’d be best coming off the bench in the classic 3rd guard role.
March 28th, 2011 at 2:54 PM
That makes me laugh, and will probably end up happening.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:00 PM
Lamb is not only talented, but gifted in front of the camera as we all saw yesterday on CBS.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:02 PM
Greg Anthony has the interview skills of Jim Gray.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:03 PM
I see them both as Drew Gooden-like – terrific rebounding machines who are limited offensively
An apt description.
If I’m a NBA team, the big unknown is how these two will act once they are split up.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:04 PM
I’ll add to my list:
Jerryd Bayless – Put up better numbers than Knight and he also had a killer pull-up jumper in college. Currently a 3rd guard for New Orleans.
Acie Law
Randy Foye
Juan Dixon
Keyon Dooling
March 28th, 2011 at 3:06 PM
It was super awkward and the delayed feed was as if Walker and Lamb were in Iraq. Horrible job by everyone involved.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:08 PM
Wow. Knight is 6-3.
Gotta say, I’m surprised you’re comparing Knight – a top 10 HS player to these guys
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/recruiting/player-Brandon-Knight-59767
March 28th, 2011 at 3:09 PM
Oh hell yeah. Never got enough credit on the Clipshow.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:09 PM
All these guys can go(but shouldnt). This years draft is beyond horrible.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:11 PM
Wow. Now that is an excellent comparison.
As for Knight, I don’t see anything similar to Arenas. He’s a true point guard where Arenas was a scorer who was determined to play PG at Washington. He wasn’t a facilitator at all. I have watched both Knight and Wall play the last two seasons, and at this point I think Knight is every bit as good as Wall was last year as a point guard, and he is a much better shooter.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:11 PM
Fine. I’ll compare him to this guy who was also a top 10 HS player:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wrighbr02.html
March 28th, 2011 at 3:13 PM
Also, I think Barnes is clearly the most talented player in college right now. Dude is a freshman and looks like an NBA player out there. He is physically pretty silly. He came around big time at the end of the year, and as good as Williams was in the tourney (and Kemba), I’m taking a long look at Barnes if I have the #1 pick.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:13 PM
I don’t see Knight as a true PG at all. In fact, Calipari had to change his offense a little from his classic dribble-drive because of it.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:15 PM
I’ve really come around on him. It was strange early on when he was missing shots because his stroke looked so good. But once his confidence improved and he got hot he really took off.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:16 PM
Acie Law
For some reason I thought Acie Earl. Made me laugh to myself. Weren’t Randy Foye and Keyon Dooling big-time recruits out of HS, fwiw?
March 28th, 2011 at 3:18 PM
He is physically pretty silly.
Is he majoring in slap stick?
March 28th, 2011 at 3:19 PM
Totally agree. I saw him play early in the season and he looked pretty timid and lost out there, which is to be expected. Once he found his groove though he has been impressive. In a lot of games he looks like a man amongst boys out there. People simply cannot guard him.
As for Knight, I think he’s a true PG. At this point he is a scorer first, but I think he has all of the tools. He was borderline unguardable against UNC.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:20 PM
Harrison Barnes is great but hes not Kemba Walker or Jimmer. Discuss.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:20 PM
I don’t think he’s ready to start yet in the league, but if he gets a little bit of time to get his feet wet, he’s going to make someone pretty happy. It’s going to be very fun to see where all the guards go in the draft. They are all so vastly different.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:21 PM
Ummmm…
March 28th, 2011 at 3:22 PM
I think Barnes has the greatest ceiling of any player in the draft. I think Kemba is the best player right now and is just a stud. Jimmer is great too, but he isn’t going to play in an offense like he does at BYU so he’s a big question mark. He can play though, no question. I do think Steph Curry is/was a better player than Jimmer.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:22 PM
I can agree with that.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:23 PM
Man, I LOVED that guy in college, he hit so many big shots. Balls of steel. Sucks he hasn’t really made it in the NBA.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:23 PM
He’s not. They’ll all have completely different roles in the NBA.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:25 PM
Probably true. It’s too bad he’ll end up in either Cleveland, Detroit, or Washington which will will suck the life right out of him.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:26 PM
Totally agree. Barnes has shown incredible ability in bursts, but if he gets lost in a bad situation, that’s it for him. He needs to be on a decent team.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:27 PM
This. Last night he turned it up. I havent seen that all out domination in a while. He was everywhere. It was almost scary. If this guy stays another year UNC rolls to the title.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:27 PM
I have no idea what to make of Kemba Walker at the next level. None. I like him a lot so I hope he does well but I’m not sure we’ve seen a player like this in a while.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:28 PM
Barnes has two questions, his 1st step and his handle. If he improves on that he could really be great. I think his 1st step has already gotten better. I’m assuming Irving will probably be the top pick, but I’m not sure yet if he’s a franchise player. People say he’s not as good as Paul, which leaves me to think he would be a great complimentary piece. Ideal for NJ, but they traded their 1st round pick didn’t they?
March 28th, 2011 at 3:29 PM
You should have just said: “What’s the guess here…a white guy?”
March 28th, 2011 at 3:30 PM
Randy Foye was #1 as a senior in high school. Doesn’t mean anything now.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:30 PM
I will jump for joy if they get him or Derrick Williams
/fire Dumars
March 28th, 2011 at 3:31 PM
Poor man’s Chris Paul is about right. He does everything Paul does, just not quite as well. Should be solid just not overwhelming.
And NJ traded their pick to Utah who is in need of a PG.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:31 PM
He could be, with another year in college. Would Chris Paul be as good as he’s been if he’d left after his freshman year (or as few games as Irving has played?) Not likely. They gotta hurry up and set the NBA age limit at 20 so these guys have a better chance to succeed.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:31 PM
By all accounts Barnes has a pretty good head on his shoulders, so I don’t necessarily think he’ll be a bust unless he goes somewhere good. If he went to Washington and played with Wall, that wouldn’t be a bad guy to develop with.
As for Kemba, yeah I’m not sure either. First and foremost, I think the dude is an absolute winner and you want guys like that on your team. Plus he is a hell of a player. I’m not sure how he fits in or compares to the top PG’s in the league though.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:33 PM
yeah, but Bracy Wright was primarily a SG (look at those paltry assist #’s). Knight led the team in assists. 3rd in the SEC
March 28th, 2011 at 3:35 PM
that was in NJ. he was a nice player, though i saw an inner-city team from Passaic take him down in the State tourney. Foye was dunking back then w/ ease.
but Foye is also putting up decent NBA #’s, and is a nice combo guard
March 28th, 2011 at 3:35 PM
How about this for a Jimmer comparison- Ben Gordon. It’s the best non-white comparison I can think of.
Capable of putting up 50 points? Check.
Capable of not getting a rebound or playing defense? Check.
Not tall enough to play the two in the association? Check.
Both Mormon? Check.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:35 PM
Sean Jean – thoughts on the new Vols coach?
March 28th, 2011 at 3:35 PM
I’ve been trying to put my finger on it for awhile. My head keeps going “smaller D-Wade” but I don’t think that’s right.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:36 PM
Yeah, I could see that.
I just read a comparison for him – Bobby Jackson. That’s not bad.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:36 PM
Probably better.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:36 PM
agreed. very few of these guys are ready for the NBA. BUT if you’re in position to get drafted and get paid … tough to turn it down, esp at 18/19 years old
March 28th, 2011 at 3:38 PM
March 28th, 2011 at 3:38 PM
Now I’m trying to think of who that team was.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:38 PM
On most teams, Knight would have played the 2. If either Wall or Bledsoe had stayed that’s what would have happened.
Which is pretty much how I see Knight.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:39 PM
Mike Bibby?
March 28th, 2011 at 3:39 PM
Though I’m having trouble remembering Bibby’s mid-range/lane game from 10 years ago, so if that’s off, I’m retracting.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:40 PM
I’ve wondered if Smith and Walker would have a similar career to Jameer Nelson, i.e. PGs that can score but not necessarily distribute the ball well. Both Smith and Walker got their teammates involved this year but I’m not sure how good of a facilitator they will be on the next level
March 28th, 2011 at 3:40 PM
But you see, what about longevity. Hasheem Thabeet could have absolutely used another year in college. Nothing could tell me otherwise. He might have killed his NBA career for a rookie contract.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:42 PM
I kind of like that. Yeah, I like that a lot.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:44 PM
The coaching, strength/conditioning training, nutrition, and competition are all better in the NBA. There is no debating this. So if you believe you are a first round pick, the best choice for your development as a player is to go to the NBA.
One more year practicing/playing against a bunch of 6’8″ guys was not going to make or break Thabeet’s career. If he plays himself out of the league, so be it.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:44 PM
I’m sure Jimmer watched Ben win a state title up in Glens Falls. He knows what’s up.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:44 PM
Jameer was shooting 42% from three his second year. I don’t see that from Kemba.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:45 PM
Signed,
BJ Mullens
March 28th, 2011 at 3:46 PM
Sean Jean – thoughts on the new Vols coach?
March 28th, 2011 at 3:47 PM
Screwed that quote up somehow, but yeah.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:47 PM
That’s all true, but is playing in the D League or being the 10th man on an NBA team better than playing in college? I don’t think so.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:47 PM
Walker’s footwork is amazing (has to have an extensive soccer background). With the defensive rules in the NBA, he is going to be tough to stop.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:47 PM
Somebody who watched Vancouver/Sacramento games 10-15 years ago tell me how Kemba isn’t like Mike Bibby? Is Kemba that much quicker than Bibby was as at Arizona?
March 28th, 2011 at 3:47 PM
Technological advantages are not going to help a guy like say, Mike Conley Jr. transcend playing for an 18 win team getting destroyed nightly by guys like Nash, Williams, Paul, et al.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:48 PM
for his second contract? No. Developmentally wise? No question it is.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:48 PM
I’m sorry. I just disagree. Europe and street leagues are lined with the bodies of guys that came out too early and were just not ready to deal with the NBA. There is definitely something psychological that goes into it. Especially for a guy who hadn’t had more than a couple years spent playing the game.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:48 PM
Actually, I think Kemba might be a pretty good comparison with Ben Gordon. Both great scorers and very talented guys, but I’m not sure how they translate into the NBA. Kemba is a better all around player, but Gordon was pretty damn good at UConn too.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:49 PM
Just hope it wasn’t a knee-jerk hire because of the whole situation like say, Brad Childress was, in light of the Love Boat thing.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:49 PM
The practice time at the professional level alone would be worth more than the 30ish games against sub-par talent.
And Tom, BJ has another $1.2 million coming to him in 2011-12 while he trie to figure it all out.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:51 PM
How will it help him developmentally when there’s a chance nobody wants him on their team because he hasn’t shown anything? He could have been working on his game in college and then gone to the league and potentially made MORE over the long run. His short-sightedness for dollar signs will most likely cost him dollars in the long run because of his lack of skill right now.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:52 PM
Had he stayed another year that number could have been greater.
I think psyche and confidence have a lot to do with a players success/failure at the next level. Getting crushed, even in practice, isn’t going to help. But there’s really no quantifiable way of knowing either way.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:53 PM
Truthfully I think it was a combination of a knee jerk hire and the reality of the situation. He’s another coach who is going to be very happy to be the Tennessee coach (like Pearl was) and is a high character and hard working guy. I recognize that the hot names out there were not going to come to Tennessee especially given the climate around the program right now, but I still wish they would have at least given it a shot. It seemed a little premature. No harm in waiting another week or so, but hey, it’s done. We’ll see. Dude has a massive uphill battle. Massive. Frankly I’ll be surprised if we’re ever anywhere near as relevant again as we were with Pearl.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:53 PM
Then why hasn’t he done anything yet? He could have been playing 30 minutes a night for an entire year refining his skills and playing in meaningful tournament games. What team is going to give him any type of decent money based on what he’s shown to this point? He’s more likely to be out of the league in 3-4 years than he is being on an all-star team, or hell even an average contributor.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:54 PM
Not true (according to maybe Steve Kerr on Simmons’ pod, or someone, I forget). You don’t get as much practice as you think, and evidence shows very few draft picks who start as 10th men, and work their way up getting better with time. They either get playing time initially and go through growing pains on the court, or waste away.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:57 PM
Darko, Thabeet… someone should go through and find lottery picks with <10mpg their rookie years, and see how many ended up as valuable contributors.
They may suck bc they didn't get time, or didn't get time bc they suck, but either way could have used another year of school/experience.
March 28th, 2011 at 3:59 PM
Jermaine O’Neal and Tracy McGrady right off the top of my head.
March 28th, 2011 at 4:00 PM
Define nothing.
He’s been down in the D-League working on his game. Averaging 15/7 this season, good enough to get a call-up last night.
March 28th, 2011 at 4:01 PM
I think it would be highly interesting if one of the Morris twins went pro and one of them stayed in college.
March 28th, 2011 at 4:02 PM
With the NCAA restrictions on how much time a coach can spend with their team during and after the season, the seasoning a player can receive in college is highly overstated.
March 28th, 2011 at 4:02 PM
Amir Johnson
Kwame Brown
Darko
Chris Wilcox
All dudes who sucked initially (some would say they still suck), but were able to secure a second (or third) contract in the NBA.
March 28th, 2011 at 4:06 PM
I know a lot of UK haters would like to see Knight (especially) and Jones go Pro. Especially with the class coming in next year. I have thought all along that Knight will buck the system and stay one more year. He enrolled as a sophomore because of honors classes and may be able to graduate with one more year. Jones also has begun to realize he has a lot more work to do.
March 28th, 2011 at 4:07 PM
Not so fast my friend. I think Jeff Teague’s freshman numbers at WF were better than Pauls and he left after one year. Their NBA careers well…does Jeff Teague still have an NBA career?
March 28th, 2011 at 4:13 PM
Singler : Budinger ??
The only thing Kyle Singler has in common with Chase Budinger is that he is really tall and really white. Terrible comparison.
March 28th, 2011 at 4:16 PM
Both left after two. Paul’s numbers were much better anyway.
March 28th, 2011 at 4:17 PM
Singler is not that tall really and his skill set is somewhat similar to Luke Babbitt and Gordon Hayward, which is probably why he sat out last draft. Hayward has a bit of a quicker drive and Babbitt was a more consistent outside shooter. Singler can shoot off a screen fairly well and defend. His 3 point shot was awful this year and he should probably never use it in the Pros.
March 28th, 2011 at 4:20 PM
This. Even if you’re an end of the bench NBA player, you will have a lot more time to work on your game.
And is there any evidence to suggest that players are actually better served with another year in college? I don’t always think guy like Thabeet flame out because they didn’t have more time in college. I think it really comes down to the fact that they’re not good basketball players.
March 28th, 2011 at 4:38 PM
I guess you would have to look at guys who stayed 2+ years in the pros and see how their pro careers are going and think what the liklihood of success is if they left after 2 years. Is Tyler Hansbrough going to get much PT off the Pacer bench after his Sophmore year vs at least his jr year? Hard to say, but I don’t think so. Your phenoms will get their PT but other guys need the actual gametime to improve. There’s no clear cut answer as not every pro player is an athletic freak. A lot have to work at that shit.