2011 NCAA Tournament: Media Bracket Projections Focus on Seven Teams
The NCAA tournament brackets will be released at 6 pm, but our focus here will be on the media’s projections. After looking at bracket predictions from ESPN (Joe Lunardi), Rivals (Mike Huguenin), Sports Illustrated (Andy Glockner) and CBS Sports (Jerry Palm), the bubble is comprised of basically seven teams: St. Mary’s, Colorado, Alabama, Harvard (well, kind of), VCU, USC, and Georgia. Not the sexiest bubble. Jason Lisk’s IN/OUT on those seven at the bottom.
Resumes first, then the breakdown of whether the media has them in or out
(RPI/SOS info from here; Top 50/Top 100 info via ESPN)
St. Mary’s 23-8, 11-3 in the WCC; RPI: 46, SOS: 102; 1-4 top 50, 3-6 top 100
USC 19-14, 10-8 in the Pac 10; RPI: 69, SOS: 39; 5-5 top 50, 8-8 top 100
Colorado 20-13, 8-8 in the Big 12; RPI: 65, SOS: 49; 5-7 Top 50, 8-10 Top 100
Alabama 21-11, 12-4 in the SEC; RPI: 80, SOS: 114; 4-4 top 50, 5-7 top 100
Georgia 21-11, 9-7 in the SEC; RPI: 48, SOS: 40; 3-9 top 50, 5-11 top 100
VCU 23-11, 12-6 in the CAA; RPI: 49, SOS: 86; 3-6 top 50, 8-8 top 100
Harvard 23-6, 12-2 in the Ivy; RPI: RPI: 35; SOS: 141;1-5 top 50; 3-5 Top 100
| ESPN | Rivals | SI | CBS | Lisk | ||
| St. Mary’s | IN | OUT | OUT | IN | OUT | |
| USC | IN | OUT | IN | OUT | IN | |
| Colorado | IN | IN | IN | OUT | IN | |
| Alabama | OUT | IN | OUT | OUT | IN | |
| Georgia | OUT | IN | IN | IN | OUT | |
| VCU | OUT | OUT | OUT | IN | OUT | |
| Harvard | OUT | OUT | OUT | OUT | OUT | |
Adding: Jeff Goodman, Fox Sports. In regards to these seven, he has St. Mary’s, Colorado, and Georgia in. So that’s now six writers who cannot agree on the final three teams.
Adding: Gary Parrish, CBS Sports. In regards to these seven, he has St. Mary’s, Colorado, VCU and Georgia in. Which means he thinks a team everyone else has as a lock, will be left out of the field. That team is Clemson (the Tigers have zero Top 50 wins).
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March 13th, 2011 at 3:04 PM
So everyone else is either consensus in or consensus out?
Way to simplify the bubble, TBL!
/And to throw the nerds a bone and pretend Harvard has a shot
March 13th, 2011 at 3:15 PM
If UConn finished 9th in the Big East reg season but can get a 2 seed, why even have a regular season? College hoops continues to have a much worse way of crowning a champion than college football
March 13th, 2011 at 3:19 PM
Nah.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:26 PM
Let’s just make everything a tournament with a last man standing format. Forget about regular seasons. Awesome way to crown a true champ.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:26 PM
No…not so much.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:32 PM
Ohio State should sit everyone in this game. Completely meaningless for them.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:33 PM
UConn may have been 9-9 in the conference regular season, but they have wins this year over Kentucky, Michigan State, Texas, Tennessee, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, Villanova, Cincinnati.
If they did it the way football did it they’d have KU vs OSU in a championship game next week and nobody outside Kansas or Ohio would care.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:35 PM
You’re right, title game ratings in college football are never very good (actually, they consistently out perform basketball title by 30-40%)
March 13th, 2011 at 3:37 PM
I really don’t understand why you seem to want the two sports to be treated the same way. Weird.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:42 PM
Harvard OUT OUT OUT OUT OUT
There is no reason to talk about Harvard.
/Yale grad.
//Not really.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:42 PM
no, i wouldn’t change college hoops. I’m just pointing out that excitement comes at an expense. Which is why I like football the way it is.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:43 PM
OSU is just way too big for Penn State. At least it’s a good guess we have NCAA spot locked up after yesterday.
Speaking of yesterday, I’m never drinking again.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:47 PM
I like football the way it is and fear the NCAA is going to screw up the tourney by adding too many teams.
If I were to change the tourney, I’d go back to 64 teams and move the Final Four to Thursday and Saturday nights. Part of the reason the ratings are so much lower is the casual fan isn’t going to give a shit after a weekend on a Monday night with Tuesday work/school in the future. If the final is on a Saturday, more reason for an excuse to party.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:49 PM
Fair enough. The two sports are very different and have appropriately different regular seasons and post seasons. Neither is perfect.
I’m not sure how I feel about UConn getting a two seed. But when I want to completely dismiss the notion entirely, I remember they lost no games outside of BE play and they beat Texas, Kentucky, and Mich St (does that mean something again?). Oh, and Harvard.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:50 PM
Oh, and Harvard.
They should be a 1 seed then.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:50 PM
question from wife: If college football had a playoff, would you like it as much as March Madness?
Darn good question.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:55 PM
Hey, don’t get flippant with me. I’m simply following this weekend’s rule that no one should go more than three straight comments without mentioning Harvard.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:56 PM
Sportsdork, I guess what irritates me is that some conference tournaments matter and some don’t. OSU never gets anything extra out of winning the Big Ten tourney, which is partly their own doing with the late Sunday time. Yet if you make a run in the Big East tourney, you can get a ridiculous bump
March 13th, 2011 at 3:56 PM
question from wife: If college football had a playoff, would you like it as much as March Madness?
Darn good question.
It would be completely different. Part of the fun with March Madness is unknowns beating the big guys on last second shots. All the football teams in a playoff would be well-known.
Sportsdork – I like the cut of your jib.
March 13th, 2011 at 3:57 PM
Yet if you make a run in the Big East tourney, you can get a ridiculous bump
East-Coast bias.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:00 PM
No. Only 1 game would be on at a time, and most of the games woundnt be very good.
Billy Packer himself said most tourney games are terrible but the sheer volume allows the great ones to get seen. Its great that way, constant excitement, but it wouldnt be possible in football.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:01 PM
Billy Packer himself said most tourney games are terrible but the sheer volume allows the great ones to get seen
Boom. I like that reason better than mine.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:02 PM
I like what Cursed has started. Everyone needs a real pic of themselves as their avatar.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:04 PM
It did that out of nowhere. I went with that like 2 years ago, and it inexplicably reverted
March 13th, 2011 at 4:04 PM
Hmm. Maybe. Wish there was data to look at this. I do think maybe the ACC tourney has a similar effect. Maybe.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:05 PM
very true, although now with 16 teams, the Big East has so many more games and thus, more chances to do something “special.” There’s no such thing as a “special” run in the Big Ten tourney..maybe Iowa in 2001. Maybe.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:06 PM
Avatar’s here are too damn small to notice.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:09 PM
It will take quite a wave of peer pressure to pry Timmy’s smiling mug out of my grasp.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:10 PM
Which is why I’m staying with mine. That, and because Ignignokt and I are both colossal douches.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:20 PM
According to college hoops experts Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley, OSU doesn’t impose their will on anyone. I guess they’ve lucked their way to 31 wins. Hopefully they get out of the sweet 16.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:21 PM
Can we get other analysts from other sports to weigh in on College hoops? What’s Dick Button up to? Is Gary McCord available?
March 13th, 2011 at 4:30 PM
You’re right, title game ratings in college football are never very good (actually, they consistently out perform basketball title by 30-40%)
Football is also a more popular sport in America than basketball. If there was a high school-level football national championship, it’d do well in the ratings.
/Prays ESPN doesn’t see this post
March 13th, 2011 at 4:31 PM
Avatar’s here are too damn small to notice
Agreed.
Dear Management -
Larger avatars, please.
Signed,
Your loyal servants
March 13th, 2011 at 4:35 PM
CC – Did you look at the teams OSU beat in the B10 tourney?
Should they be rewarded for any of those wins?
March 13th, 2011 at 4:36 PM
Dear Management -
Larger avatars, please.
Signed,
Your loyal servants
THIS. Maybe make the pictures as wide at the date (square it from there)?
March 13th, 2011 at 4:41 PM
yes, but the Big Ten teams are always de-valued. Just b/c the name “PSU” doesn’t stand out, doesn’t mean they’re any worse than Villanova right now.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:41 PM
From any measure, KenPom, RPI, etc…, the Big 10 is stronger than any conference in the country. Those numbers are likely skewed away from the Big East because of the sorry state of affairs at DePaul, South Florida, etc… However, let’s try not to diminish the fact that the Big 10 is really fucking good this year. It isn’t aesthetically pleasing all the time (36-33!!!), but the quality is definitely there.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:42 PM
Brandon Tierney is killing the Big Ten on twitter…the Big Ten has more NBA-bound players this year than the Big East. Put these games in MSG and people would magically love them so much more.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:46 PM
Coaches in the Big 10 value tempo and reduced turnover rate more than any conference in the country. That value tends to make games look slower, because there are less fast breaks and less dunks. It certainly doesn’t make the teams any worse though.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:54 PM
You left out Jeff Eisenberg at Yahoo (who I like a lot):
He has Clemson out as well (along with St Mary’s and BC).
March 13th, 2011 at 4:54 PM
Oops, Eisenberg link:
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/The-NCAA-tourney-selection-committee-8217-s-fiv;_ylt=AuMJYTDEDXhV_q_bMIgfnLTevbYF?urn=ncaab-wp277
March 13th, 2011 at 4:58 PM
That’s true, and it’s because MSG is a magical venue to watch a basketball game.
March 13th, 2011 at 4:58 PM
BTW…a VERY exhaustive look at bracketology on the web.
There’s even one site out there that has Maryland getting a bid. ???!!
http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm
March 13th, 2011 at 5:00 PM
huh?
what does Villanova have to do with anything?
March 13th, 2011 at 5:03 PM
Barkley was right about Ohio State.
March 13th, 2011 at 5:07 PM
If Villanova was playing right now and sucking, nobody would say that Big East basketball sucks. That’s the point.
March 13th, 2011 at 5:07 PM
Fran F just said Kemba will suck it up and play minutes b/c he’s a New York kid. I HATE that I’m from Ohio. I’m so much lazier.
March 13th, 2011 at 5:23 PM
Sure he was. That was the first half of basketball they’ve seen OSU play all year.
I love Kenny and Charles talking NBA because no one knows more about the Association than they do. However, I’ve heard more factually incorrect stuff in the last 30 hours from the NBA guys (Kenny, Charles, Steve Kerr, etc…) than I’ve heard all year.
As with any job, it’s tough to do be an expert if you don’t have the working knowledge. Those guys don’t watch college ball all year. They can’t be considered experts.
March 13th, 2011 at 5:27 PM
Proof there… Greg Anthony is now a fabulous college basketball analyst. He knows ball AND watches college ball all year.
March 13th, 2011 at 6:31 PM
Wow, what a soft, questionable regional:
ND – overvalued?
Purdue – finished weak
Georgetown – Wright will play, but how is his hand?