The regular season is over, and the big conferences get the tournament week underway, starting with the Big East first round tomorrow. You’ll hear lots of talk about the bubble, and it will be inappropriately and overbroadly used for any team with a winning record from a major conference this week. In actuality, we are probably talking about roughly six spots definitely in doubt, depending on how much the at-large pool shrinks, with about 10-12 teams in the running as we enter this week.

I’m going to have a more detailed analysis tomorrow of the conference tournaments, and who realistically has a chance to improve their at-large chances.

What to do with BYU and Georgetown?

BYU lost their chance at a #1 seed when Davies was suspended and they lost at home to New Mexico soundly. They are clearly going to have a #2 seed profile based on the entire season, but the committee will likely bump them down another notch so they are not the highest seeded team in their side of the bracket, to protect against them being significantly worse. I think they drop into the #3 or #4 range, but can salvage that if they show they can beat San Diego State yet again, in which case you can flip those two.

I didn’t move Georgetown down last week because we needed to see the effect of Chris Wright’s injury, and find out the news on how long. The effect has not been good at all. Georgetown has looked terrible, and even though Georgetown says he will probably be back, the committee won’t trust that unless he plays before selection. My best guess is they put them at around a #6, so they are not one of the top 4 in a regional, but are in a position to make a run if Wright does come back.

What effect will some of these mid-major finals have on other at-larges?

Gonzaga and St. Mary’s will meet for the WCC title tonight, and I’m projecting winner is in at #12 seed, with Gonzaga potentially moving up to an #11 with a win, while the loser is out of luck for an at-large. I’m certain that St. Mary’s needs to win; Gonzaga would be in the last four at-large discussion with a loss, but I’ve got them out in that event.

We’ve got two situations tonight that could also disrupt the at-larges. Virginia Commonwealth (vs. Old Dominion) and UW-Milwaukee (vs. Butler) are not getting in as at-larges, but I’m projecting that their opponents are already in the field, even with a loss. To account for this in today’s seed projection, I put VCU/UWM in on one slot on the #13 line in the event one gets the auto bid. If both get the victories and the auto bids, that tightens it up even more. If only one wins tonight, then the projection holds, and if neither do, someone like Alabama or Memphis gets back in the field as the extra at-large. That is until someone else besides Utah State, or Xavier/Temple win their conference tourneys.

Who is realistically on the bubble, and who could fall out?

I think any team I have listed below at #8 seed or better is solidly in, regardless of what happens in the conference tournament, with the results only affecting seeding. I think the #9′s and #10′s are in barring a bad loss that would cause their profile to drop, and most are probably still in anyway. Right now, the last at-larges I have in, are in order: UAB, Tennessee, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Colorado, Richmond, Boston College, and Cleveland State (though realistically, Cleveland State will get squeezed by the shrinking bubble and the results some bubble teams will put up in the major tournaments).  Colorado is a team that I improved my projection when I did a cross-comparison of all teams that might be considered “bubble” by the talking heads. I think their wins over Texas, Kansas State (twice) and Missouri separate them right now and get them in. The teams I have just on the outside, but can play their way in this week and surpass other teams who lose, are Memphis, Alabama, Clemson, Southern Cal and Southern Miss.

Here are my projections entering conference tournament week. I’ll do one final projection on Sunday morning after the smoke has largely cleared, where I will actually try to pick the regions. I figured it would have been a pointless exercise up until now to try to pick specific matchups.

#1 Seeds: Ohio State*, Kansas*, Pittsburgh*, Duke

#2 Seeds: Notre Dame, Purdue, San Diego State, North Carolina*

#3 Seeds: Texas, BYU, Florida, Syracuse

#4 Seeds: Kentucky, Louisville, Wisconsin, West Virginia

#5 Seeds: Connecticut, St. John’s, Arizona, Kansas State

#6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Georgetown, UNLV, Cincinnati

#7 Seeds: Villanova, Xavier*, Texas A&M, Utah State*

#8 Seeds: Temple, George Mason, UCLA, Old Dominion

#9 Seeds: Missouri, Illinois, Florida State, Marquette

#10 Seeds: Michigan, UAB*, Washington, Butler*

#11 Seeds: Tennessee, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Belmont*

#12 Seeds: Gonzaga or St. Mary’s*, Georgia, Colorado+, Richmond+, Boston College+, Cleveland State+

#13 Seeds: Harvard*, Virginia Commonwealth/UW-Milwaukee*, Charleston*, Oakland*

#14 Seeds: Long Island*, Iona*, Bucknell*, Long Beach State*

#15 Seeds: Indiana State*, Morehead State*, Kent State*, Montana*

#16 Seeds: Boston University*, Florida Atlantic*+, UNC-Asheville*+, Hampton*+, McNeese State*+, Texas Southern*+

teams who have clinched auto bids are highlighted with links; + = first four game participant, * = projected auto bid recipient

[photo via Getty]