ESPN Hires “Director of Production Analytics.” Say Goodbye to Your Traditional Stats.
We have entered sports’ industrial revolution. Statistics are making sports homogenized, faster and efficient. For those standing in the hallway or blocking up the hall, it will only get worse. Sports consciousness is in for a sea change and ESPN plans to be at the forefront.
The WWL has hired engineer and former NBA consultant Dean Oliver as “director of production analytics.” Wielding ESPN’s power, he will infuse new stats into the marketplace to weed out the common, misplaced understanding. Soon, every young sports fan in America will be dropping acronyms and formulas like they are distilled rap terminology.
“We have to introduce new language. You can get lazy using convenient language. Like with common discussions of basketball players’ per-game points, rebounds and assists. That has to be replaced. How many team wins does he contribute? How often do his passes lead to buckets and free throws?” But he concedes it’s easier to find flaws in stats than invent ones: “RBI, in 10 years, will have gone away. What’s more of a battle is what it’s replaced with.”
I like statistics. I cringe when baseball analysts make sweeping claims based on “wins” and “RBI.” They should be used as a tool, to help us grasp sports more intelligently. Stats don’t worry me, but their ferocious inertia does. The refrain isn’t “we can” understand sports better, it is “we have to.” We’re on WAR footing and we never ask why.
Sports are an escape. It’s no coincidence organized, professional leagues developed alongside urbanization. Industrialism created an alien culture. Sports offered an outlet to reconnect with the pastoral world, to create a sense of community and to provide drama and purpose to an otherwise soulless world. Sports should be a departure from modern life, not a reflection of it.
A baseball GM could construct the ideal statistical team. Tremendous athletes would blanket the field. Dispassionate hitters top to bottom would work pitch counts and be excruciating outs. It would be successful and efficient. It would be awful to watch. Every game would take five hours with minimal scoring. The game needs to entertain.
Sports are beautiful. Seeing Lionel Messi dribble through three defenders or Larry Fitzgerald make a leaping catch in the end zone exhilarates us. We need to know the mechanisms behind those feats as much as we need to know the composition of Van Gogh’s paints or a diagram of Shakespeare’s sentence structure. We understand because we experience greatness organically. We don’t need to double check the spreadsheet.
Statistical progress is wonderful – I love my adjusted OPS just as I love my iPod – but if we progress for the sake of progress itself we risk ruining the things we love about sports.
[Photo via Getty]
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150 Responses to “ESPN Hires “Director of Production Analytics.” Say Goodbye to Your Traditional Stats.”
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March 3rd, 2011 at 4:47 PM
Dammit. Bring back my traditional stats.
March 3rd, 2011 at 4:49 PM
cdouglasroberts 3 yrs later. $2M later.>RT @t_todd: when your team missed 37 free throws to lose the national title & you missed 9. #youreasquare
March 3rd, 2011 at 4:50 PM
They still exist, I’m sure you and Joe Morgan would have enlightening conversations about them
March 3rd, 2011 at 4:50 PM
Like with common discussions of basketball players’ per-game points, rebounds and assists. That has to be replaced.
?
March 3rd, 2011 at 4:53 PM
I had that same reaction, KC. Methinks the Director of Production Analytics doth protest too much
March 3rd, 2011 at 4:54 PM
A baseball GM could construct the ideal statistical team. Tremendous athletes would blanket the field. Dispassionate hitters top to bottom would work pitch counts and be excruciating outs. It would be successful and efficient. It would be awful to watch. Every game would take five hours with minimal scoring. The game needs to entertain.
I’m not sure I understand the argument “Stats=boring games”. Albert Pujols puts up some pretty great numbers and is also pretty exciting to watch.
March 3rd, 2011 at 4:55 PM
PPG is apparently meaningless.
March 3rd, 2011 at 4:59 PM
Dean Oliver is an idiot. He spoke in my class…and tried to argue that players in the NBA never improve after their rookie year because of the advanced metrics all teams/players/coaches were using to defend them.
Yes…it was as stupid as it sounds.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:02 PM
“departure from daily life” is a different path for everyone. some people use sports as a quick mental palate cleanser, others use sports as a hobby they’re passionate about.
but statistical analysis done outside the field of play should not impact one’s enjoyment of what happens during an event.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:04 PM
hopefully they will be infusing standardized stats and not trying to create brand new ESPN stats.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:05 PM
pointless. thanks again, ESPN
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:06 PM
hopefully they will be infusing standardized stats and not trying to create brand new ESPN stats.
I kind of hope they do make up some new ESPN stats (“His clutch meter is rising through the roof!”) and overreach so far that it breaks up their dominance
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:06 PM
you can’t knock the hustle. If you can make money off of giving the fat kids something to talk about while they’re watching the others play, then god bless you.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:07 PM
This entire post reminds me of what Louis LeRoy said about Impressionist painters like Monet and Pisaro at the Salon of 1874.
/adjusts ascot.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:07 PM
This. The only difference is better stats have replaced the antiquated ones. I don’t get what the hand-wringing is about.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:09 PM
i dunno…it reminds me more of hitler’s degenerate art movement where intellectualism was squashed in favor of art that was neither well executed or elicited any emotion.
/had to bring hitler into the argument somehow…save time and all that
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:09 PM
i think it would be funny if they came up with things like:
CBOROTMOTP – Clutchiness on Balls Right Over the Middle of the Plate
DJCFM – Derek Jeter Clutch Fielding Meter
CBLBCZR – CHris Berman’s Long Ball Call Zone Rating
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:09 PM
i dunno…it reminds me more of hitler’s degenerate art movement where intellectualism was squashed in favor of art that was neither well executed or elicited any emotion.
/had to bring hitler into the argument somehow…save time and all that
And by Hitler you mean Mugabe, right?
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:10 PM
nope…i meant hitler.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:12 PM
CBOROTMOTP – Clutchiness on Balls Right Over the Middle of the Plate
Let’s go to the ESPN Mathemagic Statustrator to see what all the newest numbers are! Brought to you by ESPN Insider. Please log in now to continue viewing the game
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:12 PM
CBOROTMOTP – Clutchiness on Balls Right Over the Middle of the Plate
DJCFM – Derek Jeter Clutch Fielding Meter
CBLBCZR – CHris Berman’s Long Ball Call Zone Rating
I’m working on inventing a Joe Morgan brand Consistameter as we speak. It’ll measure consistency. And grit.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:13 PM
nope…i meant hitler.
I was making a joke at Duffy’s expense.
But yes, Nazi attitudes towards art and architecture are fascinating.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:13 PM
JD Drew? Oh hell no…
/lucky Taguch and Lefty aren’t around to start bitching
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:15 PM
can we call it the Joe Morgan Consitameter/Hustler-o-meter 3000, sponsored by True Grit/Old Spice ?
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:16 PM
damnit…i usually pick up on these.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:17 PM
thanks for watching ESPN, Sunday Night Baseball! You are now a subscriber of ESPN The Magazine, whether you like it or not!
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:18 PM
can we call it the Joe Morgan Consitameter/Hustler-o-meter 3000, sponsored by True Grit/Old Spice ?
Whatever we call it, the all time leader in it is Derek Sanderson Jeter followed by Davey Concepcion.
Sparky Anderson was only a manager but, fuck it, he’s third all time for some reason.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:19 PM
What about consistent grit? Or gritty consistency?
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:20 PM
we can also get a BRMSM – Big Red Machine Superiority Meter, where the Big Red Machine is always the best, even if they aren’t included in the discussion.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:20 PM
lol.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:22 PM
/lucky Taguch and Lefty aren’t around to start bitching
FREE TAGUCHI!
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:22 PM
It sounds like what he’s saying is that when a guy is at the stripe and they show his stats, they will be different ones than they show now. Not necessarily more.
And if anything, the trend in stats is towards more all encompassing numbers which will allow fewer of them to tell the same story. Give us all a little extra time to marvel at their athletic grace.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:22 PM
David Mark Eckstein Memorial Gamer Award?
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:26 PM
The Bert Blyleven compilation of stats better than the actual player Memorial Award.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:28 PM
The Jim Rice feared hitter despite never getting intentionally walked Memorial Award.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:28 PM
As much as it pains me to agree, I’m not sure we have had the discussion about what the point of stats are. Is it to tell which players are better? Predict outcomes? Describe what truly happened in a sporting event?
Something like WAR… if your WARs on a team don’t add up to the actual number of WARs, what does that mean? There are way too many unexplained deltas floating around…
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:29 PM
The Paul O’Neill Passion for the Game Memorial Award, made of unbreakable alloy composite.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:31 PM
This entire post reminds me of what Louis LeRoy said about Impressionist painters like Monet and Pisaro at the Salon of 1874.
beat me to it, ms.
/fuck stats
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:35 PM
wws, stats are good for decision makers….like fantasy league players, oh, and real GMs and managers
for enjoying the game sensually, no
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:37 PM
i think there should be a clutch HOF. there are many many guys who came through when success was most necessary who didn;t have great careers otherwise. performance under pressure is one of the coolest phenomena in sports
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:41 PM
Clutchness On Curveball K‘s
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:41 PM
home run.
out of the park.
awesome stuff.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:42 PM
Okay, so you are saying the point of individual stats is to determine which players most contribute to the teams success, I’m cool with that. So lets ignore defense (most stats do) and look at WAR (a stat of which I only have a cursory understanding).
Should all the WAR’s on a team add up to the number of wins a team had (or number of wins above a baseline threshold)? How big are those deltas?
I like stats that have interpretable relationships to the game, and so my problem isn’t the overuse of statistics, but the use of a statistic like OPS which to me, makes no sense at all.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:43 PM
my big question is whether or not yahoo, cbs, fox will follow suit. the problem with some of these advanced stats is that average fans have no clue how they are compiled, and unlike homers, runs, doubles, stolen bases, etc … VORP, WAR, etc aren’t just going to be ‘picked up’ easily.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:45 PM
wilhelm! (hands on hips, shaking my head, head cocked, mock disapproval on face) You!
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:45 PM
TBL… if you forget about whether they are picked up, what do they mean. I know OPS is old news, but I still disagree with the premise.
I have never seen math where you add percentages, it just doesnt make sense
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:47 PM
odds are they include them in smaller type on a stat line so people start to see them. once they notice them, they will start to wonder what those stats are. then that leads to a Sports Science segment on ESPN’s broadcast where a guy comes on to explain how they are calculated and how it relates to the game at hand.
doesn’t FOX have a talking baseball to do this, too?
god help us if we have joe buck and tim mccarver try to explain it.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:50 PM
Clutchness On Curveball K‘s Superinflated Under Changeup K‘s – Error + Runs
Joe Buck’s favorite stat line.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:50 PM
my big question is why can’t these “average fans” take five fucking seconds to read a key?
this isn’t rocket science, it’s not advanced math…it’s pretty easy to understand on a very basic level and you can still drink beer and marvel at home runs. analysis and enjoyment are not mutually exclusive.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:50 PM
hey there’s a new post. jeezus, TBL, stats or death.
looks like everyone is mind-colluding to give the hoops player a post of silence
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:52 PM
beat me to it, ms.
/fuck stats
Vez, I think you missed what I was saying.
Not that it was terribly clear. Art history references can be kind of opaque.
/Team Gugino.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:53 PM
analysis and enjoyment are not mutually exclusive
agree, if you enjoy stats already, then more stats will delight you. if you don’t enjoy stats, be sure to not get into an argument with someone who does
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:54 PM
I don’t think ANYONE knows what WAR means… it’s compilation number (from best I can tell). And I really don’t think casual fans will do the research into it and care about it when it has no context or value.
Does WAR = Wins in real life? Do the teams with the 8 highest WARs make the playoffs?
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:54 PM
it’s not advanced math
Some of it is. But then it’s not as though fans are being asked to do the calculating. People at baseball-reference.com, football-reference.com or basketball-reference.com will gladly crunch the numbers for us.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:55 PM
I’m sure most people can and do understand it. The value placed on these stats is tremendously too high.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:55 PM
ms, we’ll always have gugino. i was just funnin’ on taking this post to the lofty obscure reference place you took it, not implying you were saying fuck stats
/but i’m still saying it
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:56 PM
I love stats, I love numbers… I just don’t think I understand the context of these numbers, and not sure the people using them do either much of the time.
Somebody PLEASE tell me the meaning of OPS, I dare you!
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:56 PM
/team baroque movement
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:57 PM
really? on-base plus slugging.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:58 PM
I don’t think ANYONE knows what WAR means
From baseball-reference.com: “WAR is Wins Above Replacement. A single number that presents the number of wins the player added”.
It took me about 3 seconds to find that.
And WAR isn’t going to equal the wins of the team. It’s meant to calculate the amount of wins any one player would add to a team above the average Joe Schmo would add.
So to say you’re misusing the stat would be putting it mildly.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:58 PM
i think advanced stats and fantasy-league pandering (not to mention layoffs and crappy biz model) make me happy i no longer cover baseball. i loved it, my favorite beat was Class A ball, but had I risen to major-league coverage…..i shudder at hwo a job i loved would have gotten tedious real quicklike
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:58 PM
No s*** sherlock! What does it mean. This is as simple a ‘new’ stat there is, but it’s completely artificial. What is the statistical justification for adding two percentages.
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:59 PM
ms, we’ll always have gugino. i was just funnin’ on taking this post to the lofty obscure reference place you took it, not implying you were saying fuck stats
/but i’m still saying it
Ah ok. Team Gugino high five!
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:00 PM
a player getting on base a lot is good, right? a player getting the most bases he can every time he gets an AB is also good. it’s really just peanut butter and jelly here.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:01 PM
24-hr extension on NFL bargaining
WAR is like an index
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:01 PM
Not what it stands for. What it’s actual baseball meaning is. And if it doesn’t translate to wins on some level, it doesnt make any sense. It’s a sum of a bunch of stats the best I can tell, but is a scalar. Just a magnitude with no units.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:01 PM
No s*** sherlock! What does it mean. This is as simple a ‘new’ stat there is, but it’s completely artificial. What is the statistical justification for adding two percentages.
OBP (On Base Percentage) is the amount of time a player gets on base. Slugging percentage (and yes I had to look this up) is singles + doubles*2 + triples*3 +HR*4/at bats. The higher it is the better.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:02 PM
Because people will view a guy who hits .320 on nothing but singles and never walks as being better than Adam Dunn
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:02 PM
Spence… Yes, but why would you not have a slugging percentage that incorporate walks (I believe it doesnt). The act of adding the two together makes no sense. Why not add OBP+(10*HR_Rate).
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:02 PM
Not what it stands for. What it’s actual baseball meaning is. And if it doesn’t translate to wins on some level, it doesnt make any sense. It’s a sum of a bunch of stats the best I can tell, but is a scalar. Just a magnitude with no units.
I explained that in the very next paragraph of that comment. If slow down your running around with the pitchforks and torches long enough, you would be able to see that.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:03 PM
statheads typically hate ichiro…i fucking love ichiro. like who you want for that instead of hating on people who want to compare without being biased. insulting people for LEARNING MORE about a game is not something for ridicule.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:03 PM
I’ll even repost it for you Wide:
And WAR isn’t going to equal the wins of the team. It’s meant to calculate the amount of wins any one player would add to a team above the average Joe Schmo would add.
It’s a pretty simple concept.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:04 PM
Butters, how is adding the two a more accurate measure than incorporating walks into the slugging %? If you are coming up with a statistic to fit a hypothesis, it’s invalid from the start.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:04 PM
whatever. i think what we can all agree on is some stats are great and there is also silliness
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:05 PM
how are you not getting this? OPS is EXACTLY a slugging percentage that incorporates walks and however else you get on base.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:05 PM
Because people will view a guy who hits .320 on nothing but singles and never walks as being better than Adam Dunn
yes, dumbfucks will
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:05 PM
So ms, if you sum up all the WARs on a team, it should more or less add up to the number of wins (minus an intercept) that team adds… with whatever delta that stat has built in
Now calculate the delta, and see if it’s really that good
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:06 PM
What do you think On-Base Percentage is? Take that, add in the slugging factor and it’s a strong measurement of how good a hitter is
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:06 PM
Because it’s artificial and can have no units. If you calculate slugging that includes walks you can say it is the number of bases per plate appearance. OPS has no ability to do that.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:08 PM
come on, MS.
“the # of wins the player added.”
Joe Schmoe wants to know: “How do you figure that out?”
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:10 PM
OPS = (#1b*AB + #2b*AB + #3b*AB + #HR*AB + BB*AB)/(PA*AB) + (#1b*PA + #2b*2*PA + #3b*3*PA + #HR*4*PA)/(AB*PA)
seems confusing
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:11 PM
So ms, if you sum up all the WARs on a team, it should more or less add up to the number of wins (minus an intercept) that team adds… with whatever delta that stat has built in
No, it really shouldn’t. I’m not sure where I’m losing you here, but WAR is the amount of wins ANY ONE PLAYER ADDS ABOVE WHAT AN AVERAGE PLAYER WOULD ADD. It’s not going to add up to the team’s wins ever and nor is it supposed to. In other words, if Alex Rodriguez has a WAR of 8.0 for a season then he is calculated to have been worth 8 more wins to his team than some Joe Schmo third baseman like, say, Pedro Feliz or Chris Johnson. If a player has a WAR of 0.0. That means they are AVERAGE. They are equaling the average of what other players do and ADD NO EXTRA WINS.
Granted there is more thinking involved in this than Hits/at bats, but come on, this is hardly advanced calculus.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:11 PM
did you graduate high school math?
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:12 PM
anything given in the unit of “bases per atbat-appearances” seems to have difficult interpretation. Why not “bases per plate appearance” which we dont have
(4*HR + 3*3b + 2*2b + 1b + BB)/PA
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:13 PM
Thats what it is… my point isnt that a stat that takes into OBP and Slugging isn’t a great idea, just that no one has explained (at least that ive seen) why OPS is that great, and eg my suggestion above, isn’t.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:14 PM
come on, MS.
“the # of wins the player added.”
Joe Schmoe wants to know: “How do you figure that out?”
Google is your friend TBL. A google of ‘How is WAR calculated’ yielded this as the very first result. And as a plus, it’s even written in plain English.
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:14 PM
wow. two posts in a row with no comments for a long time
now back the math bowl
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:14 PM
And according to that link, I misspoke. League average for WAR is about 2.0.
Fucking shoot me. The concept remains the same.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:15 PM
MS…. if each player has a certain number of wins added, why wouldn’t all the players WARs on a team add up to the number of wins for a team. (assuming it takes into accounts offense/defense/and games played, which i think it does)
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:15 PM
WWS…im legitimately shocked at how you’re just missing this entirely on OPS.
say a player’s OBP is .400 and his slugging is .450…his OPS is .850.
THAT’S IT.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:17 PM
That’s kinda surprising, what’s the reasoning?
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:17 PM
if a replacement player team would get 60 wins… then if you have 25 guys with total WARs of 35, it should be a 95 win team, more or less…
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:18 PM
MS…. if each player has a certain number of wins added, why wouldn’t all the players WARs on a team add up to the number of wins for a team. (assuming it takes into accounts offense/defense/and games played, which i think it does)
Because it’s wins ABOVE what the average player contributes. It’s not how many cumulative wins they each add. It’s how many MORE they contribute than the average.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:18 PM
ichiro’s a shit-talking samurai. i mean, he HATES cleveland and i still love him…he’s just a total badass.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:18 PM
i like the “.320 hitter vs. Austin Kearns” comment.
I bet that’s a subtle attempt to say,
Kearns > Jeter
/amirite?
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:18 PM
Scratch that. Just looked at his page.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:18 PM
I fully understand what OPS is, and how it is calculated. I just am saying it has no real-life meaning. See above, I showed you exactly how OPS is calculated, suggested a simpler alternative with real-life meaning that gives weight to power and OBP, but no one can tell me why it isn’t better.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:19 PM
if a replacement player team would get 60 wins…
/opens bottle of Listerine.
//chugs.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:20 PM
i like the “.320 hitter vs. Austin Kearns” comment.
I bet that’s a subtle attempt to say,
Kearns > Jeter
/amirite?
No.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:20 PM
Link?
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:20 PM
MS I fixed that and said that it should be number of wins above whatever the baseline/intercept is
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:20 PM
you mean adam dunn?
a lot of time it comes down to, who would you rather have? ichiro (the .320) or dunn (the slugging K guy with zero defense). if you are a casual fan you pick ichiro. if you are a hardcore fan, you pick ichiro
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:22 PM
you are WAY over thinking this.
it has no meaning? fuck yea it does…you want a player who gets on base a lot and, whenever he gets on base, he gets a lot of total bases. that’s EXACTLY what OPS calculates dude. it’s not that complex equation you posted, it’s just the two percentages added together.
my god man…
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:22 PM
I think Wikipedia explains my problem with it better than I do. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On-base_plus_slugging
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:22 PM
statheads typically hate ichiro…i fucking love ichiro.
That’s kinda surprising, what’s the reasoning?
Yeah it is. I wasn’t familiar with statistical hate of Ichiro either. All he does is get on base, which is fucking cat nip for us stat folks.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:22 PM
I am in awe of ms621 and Senior096′s patience.
I am guessing it is due to his lack of walks and power, but I am not sure.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:22 PM
pass the listerine, ms…
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:25 PM
It has no interpretable units, and can only be used as scalar values. If you used the other stat I suggested, it could be used in additional calculations to determine a player’s worth.
/I’m absolutely overthinking this
//someone has to
OPS is fine to compare two players, but I think a better stat would have units
And yes, it is that complex equation I posted (see wikipedia, they did a better job with it). Adding percentages doesnt really make statistical sense, yes you can compare two players with OPS but you cant really do anything else
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:25 PM
pass the listerine, ms…
It should be on the floor next to my rubbing alcohol filled corpse. Help yourself.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:25 PM
NERDS!
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:29 PM
I think I’m posing questions that are deeper than anyone here really cares to get into.
To sum: I’m perfectly fine with what OPS does, I think it’s great to have an OBP/SLG stat. I don’t think it makes complete statistical sense to add them together though, because the interpretable meaning is obscured. BA and OBP and SLG can all be explained by words. OPS is an artificial number, with no units or explanation other than higher is better. 0.8 vs 0.7 OPS doesn’t mean you are on base more, or even that player A is 1/7th better than player B. It’s just bigger, and I think that is lacking.
I will let it go, but anyone interested, please look at the equation on wikipedia, and I do want to discuss in the future what meaning stats have and what value that actually does add. Everyone here wants to take it on the superficial OPS is OBP + SLG and add two %ages together, thats fine, but it’s not very mathematically valid, and I was just trying to explain why.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:30 PM
statheads typically hate ichiro…i fucking love ichiro
Ichiro isn’t really hated by anybody in the traditionalists jerseys or the STATS! jerseys, is he? Great defender (when he’s in RF) who doesn’t give up many outs
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:31 PM
ichiro doesn’t walk enough…his BA is pretty much his OBP. hate might be overstating it, maybe overrated would’ve been a better word.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:31 PM
Spencer, I’m guessing your math background isn’t very statistically intense, and that’s fine. I’m certainly lacking some math training myself, but I don’t think we were arguing the same point at all. I pretty much knew everything you said, the point I had was whether that was the best way to look at it. No hard feelings… g’night all
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:32 PM
I don’t watch baseball, but these stats are easier to understand than the passer rating.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:32 PM
/Resets
Singles are more valuable than walks, correct?
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:34 PM
whoops, DUNN, NOT KEARNS
http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011/03/03/espn-hires-directior-of-production-analytics-say-goodbye-to-your-traditional-stats/#comment-1231129
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:35 PM
Ichiro isn’t really hated by anybody in the traditionalists jerseys or the STATS! jerseys, is he? Great defender (when he’s in RF) who doesn’t give up many outs
I looked up and spencer is right he barely walks. Less than 460 in his entire MLB career so far. Adam Dunn, for example has more twice as many walks in the same amount of seasons and 100 fewer at bats.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:36 PM
I can’t stand Ichiro and think he’s horribly overrated, but that probably shouldn’t surprise anyone.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:37 PM
Singles are more valuable than walks, correct?
Singles are virtually the equal of walks. Virtually.
The point is outs. You only get 27 in a game. So they are inherently valuable. You want players who do not create outs with great regularity. But if they do create outs, you want them to only create them one at a time.
The worst thing that can happen to a batter is not a strikeout. The worst thing is that he creates more than 1 out, i.e. a double player.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:37 PM
Double play. Not double player.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:37 PM
WWS…my math background is just fine. OPS doesn’t need to go into greater detail because it’s supposed to be quick and easy. it’s not supposed to be the be all, end all…it’s just the natural evolution to RBI’s and BA. it’s easy to digest and it’s quick to explain but uncovers another layer that gets into a little more detail.
there are more advanced stats out there for you to dig into but you seemingly just want to complain about them instead.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:38 PM
Adam Dunn, for example has more twice as many walks in the same amount of seasons and 100 fewer at bats
and then takes off for second?
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:39 PM
The point of all this math in sports statistics is that NONE OF US have to calculate if we don’t want to. There are plenty of individuals who work for reputable websites that are happy to do it for us and simply give us the results.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:39 PM
the dreaded double player. I lol’d.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:40 PM
the dreaded double player. I lol’d.
/breaks empty whiskey bottle on edge of bar.
What about it?
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:42 PM
and simply give us the results.
yes yes, point taken, but what do you DO with them? i understand fantasy leagues, ok, then….advanced arguing? i also get spencer’s point about understanding and learning, but to me that applies more to strategy, like in fb or hoops or hockey. me knowing a guy’s OPUS helps me enjoy watching how?
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:42 PM
what kinda whiskey?
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:43 PM
the dreaded double player. I lol’d.
Here, I can explain, MS, don’t worry. The problem when a double player is created, JHS, is that the opposition now has 10 defensive players and the batting team only has one out left
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:44 PM
I hate all of you.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:44 PM
-1 for wasting alcohol.
/pours rum and coke
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:45 PM
what kinda whiskey?
My fiancee gave me something interesting lately. It’s called Armorik. It’s single malt whiskey distilled and aged in the Bretagne region of France.
Pretty interesting stuff.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:45 PM
hey now…im on your side.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:46 PM
/breaks empty whiskey bottle on edge of bar.
-1 for wasting alcohol.
/pours rum and coke
Reposted for emphasis.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:46 PM
mantis, it said empty
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:48 PM
/red face
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:48 PM
i really hope this is TBLAD–one of my favorite stats.
so i averted disaster last night. after turning 450 bucks to 10 in just a few days, i put 50s on new mexico state plus 7 and under 136 in same game. back to life, back to reality…
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:48 PM
That does sound rather interesting. I didn’t know those frogs drank whiskey.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:49 PM
hey now…im on your side.
I didn’t mean you spencer. I assumed you were passed out from the Listerine chugging.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:49 PM
na…i spit it out. i got baked and accidentally read the directions.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:51 PM
I use advanced stats to better understand a players performance. It wouldn’t be as bad if columnists (Not you Duffy) that just sit there and yell about how the game is being ruined because of WAR or VORP, and then try to act funny by saying TUWWOOOW or some other asinine acronym.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:51 PM
That does sound rather interesting. I didn’t know those frogs drank whiskey.
I didn’t either. But if you think about where Bretagne is (it’s the peninsula that juts out into the Atlantic south of England) and the fact that Gaelic culture extended from Scotland and Ireland all the way down to the Pyrenees, it makes more sense.
I also recently read about an Indian Single Malt called Amrut. It’s supposed to be available in select cities in the U.S.
There’s also an interesting Welsh whisky out there called Penderyn. Pretty good.
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:56 PM
Can you/are you willing to do some quick tasting notes on this Armorik, MS? I’m intrigued
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:58 PM
It wouldn’t be as bad if columnists (Not you Duffy) that just sit there and yell about how the game is being ruined because of WAR or VORP, and then try to act funny by saying TUWWOOOW or some other asinine acronym.
at least half of that was directed at moi
drinky guys, i’m having imperial hatter IPA from new glarus tonight. hoppy as a bunny
March 3rd, 2011 at 6:58 PM
Stark, I haven’t had a ton of it yet. But it’s slightly grainy at first but then lightens up like a white wine. The burn is on the back end of the tasting as it goes to the back of your throat. A little earthy and fruity in the middle.
I’ll try some more when I get home. It’s been about two weeks since I opened the bottle and had a couple drams.
March 3rd, 2011 at 7:01 PM
I feel duty-bound to go find that Welsh whiskey now. I’ve been dragging around this Welsh name my whole life, it’s time for me to live up to it
March 3rd, 2011 at 7:03 PM
stark, just vacation in wales and drink it there. one of my bucket list places. love that weather, landscape, mysterious old language, castles
/half british
March 3rd, 2011 at 7:03 PM
You can find it at most upper level liquor stores stark. I believe it’s $50-$60 for a bottle.
March 3rd, 2011 at 7:06 PM
I just got a bottle of Glenfiddich 15. It’s been a few years since I had any of it and I have to say it’s not living up to my memories of it. I’m a bit disappointed.
I have a friend who recently spent some serious coin on one of my bucket list scotches: Port Ellen 28. $400 he dropped on the bottle. He shared some with me, it was one of the most beautiful things I’ve ever tasted.
March 4th, 2011 at 2:48 PM
Statistical progress is wonderful – I love my adjusted OPS just as I love my iPod – but if we progress for the sake of progress itself we risk ruining the things we love about sports.
Progress for the sake of progress. Sounds like Congress…