Super Bowl Prediction: Packers over Steelers
I was going to put up a media pick summary before I posted my pick, but not all precincts have reported. Or maybe I got busy by wasting time on Twitter and forgot to check whether they reported overnight. So that gets pushed off until the weekend, unless something else really important and pressing like “Airplane II” comes on. Anyway, I came to the humble realization that everyone must be waiting for my pick anyway, so they can adjust accordingly.
Sure, Peter King and Madden 2011 have checked in already with picks for Pittsburgh. They have been countered by Eli the Orangutan and Jenny the Elephant, who couldn’t pass on the Pack. I’d count that as a draw that I need to break.
Brian Burke tells me that these teams are even, well, that is if you are one of those losers who can’t do math and rounds at the nearest hundredth decimal. I’ve got him down as in the bag for Pittsburgh, with their 0.5007 chance of winning. Football Outsiders did an exhaustive game preview of every facet of the game, and ultimately goes with a close Packers victory.
I was not any closer than before. My initial reaction was Green Bay, but I tried to take a Spock-like view. Was I letting my emotions interfere? Was that just because I had originally picked Green Bay to be in the Super Bowl, while I picked the Steelers to lose in the championship game before these playoffs began? (And yes, I am truly disturbed).
I’ll do a more detailed analysis for game day, but I ultimately decided that by the smallest of margins, I liked Green Bay because the Pouncey injury could impact offensive line cohesion, and the Packers could take advantage with their pressure. I also liked the potential of Green Bay to spread the field and have Rodgers execute a short passing game plan. It doesn’t hurt that Green Bay has been in every game this year.
So, I was fully prepared to go with that. Then Rick Reilly told me I had to root for the Packers, which caused me to question the meaning of life and whether everything I had ever represented was all wrong. Ultimately, I decided that Rick Reilly wasn’t going to ruin my pick. He can’t tell me who to root for, and he sure isn’t going to tell me who to pick. I’m my own man. And he sure as heck isn’t going to tell me to pick a normal score that doesn’t require some crazy combination of safeties, two point conversions, or enough field goals to make Marty Schottenheimer blush.
My pick: Green Bay 25, Pittsburgh 19
So see if you can top that. First person that correctly predicts the winner and score in the comments gets to pick an NFL topic, from a player or an issue or an interesting question of their choice, for me to write about in the offseason (subject to laws of decency, good taste, and coherence of course).
[photo via Getty]

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119 Responses to “Super Bowl Prediction: Packers over Steelers”
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February 4th, 2011 at 6:34 PM
27-16 Steelers. Mike Wallace has a gets deep twice for a big day and the MVP award.
February 4th, 2011 at 6:35 PM
I wanna pick the Packers, but the previous QBs from Cal have had EPIC FAILS in Super Bowls.
/Joe Kapp’d
//Craig Morton’d
February 4th, 2011 at 6:38 PM
I like it, nice touch Lisk. I’m going with 26-24 Steelers.
February 4th, 2011 at 6:39 PM
Pittsburgh 27
Green Bay 17
February 4th, 2011 at 6:40 PM
23-20 Packers.
February 4th, 2011 at 6:41 PM
Missed the score:
27-17 Steelers
February 4th, 2011 at 6:42 PM
Damn You KC
27-20 Steelers
February 4th, 2011 at 6:43 PM
Also, 25-19 is pretty weird score, Lisk. How do you think that comes about?
February 4th, 2011 at 6:45 PM
10 FG and 2 TD combined?
February 4th, 2011 at 6:45 PM
Packers 41
Steelers 38
February 4th, 2011 at 6:46 PM
Has anyone seen any MSM do the “How fitting is it that the year Favre calls it a career the Packers led by Aaron Rodgers are in the Super Bowl?” story yet? I expect it to be a topic during the actual game. Actually that’s be a good drinking game. take a shot every time Favre’s name is mentioned
February 4th, 2011 at 6:47 PM
Packers 24-20 and a complete breakdown of Dorsey Levens’ career and mastery of the screen pass written the follow week
February 4th, 2011 at 6:49 PM
24-17 Packers
Good job lisk. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed work on the NFL this season. I hope you can land a regular column gig with one of the major sports publications. Sports journalism can use more guys like you.
February 4th, 2011 at 6:50 PM
Damn You KC
27-20 Steelers
I’ll split the prize with you when we win.
February 4th, 2011 at 6:50 PM
bill simmons discussed it in today’s column.
February 4th, 2011 at 6:51 PM
24-20, Packers.
February 4th, 2011 at 6:52 PM
gotta pull for the nfc
31-20 packers
February 4th, 2011 at 6:52 PM
24-13 Green Bay.
February 4th, 2011 at 6:53 PM
Steelers win easily. 27-17.
/therefore, you can book a GB win
//or book this being the right score and a Lions post in Lisk’s future
February 4th, 2011 at 6:53 PM
My stupidly specific prediction includes an injury to Aaron Rodgers at the 12:19 mark (time remaining) of the first quarter and James Harrison acting incredulous that they would throw a flag FOR THAT!!!! Polamalu wins a backlash MVP even though Ol’ Rapey Gray Peen and Serial Retirer/Wife Beater James have bigger impacts on the outcome: Steelers 38 – Packers 13. A nation mourns for our lost innocence
February 4th, 2011 at 6:54 PM
I just had an idiot Packer fan at work, like there are in droves around here, tell me that I must hate that the 49ers got rid of Aaron Rodgers. I tried to talk to him but he had his mind made up.
For fucking christ sake, the Packers better lose!!!
February 4th, 2011 at 6:54 PM
31-23 Steelers
My choice of post reward, irrefutable scientific proof that Barry > Emmitt
February 4th, 2011 at 6:55 PM
Sticking with:
GB 41
Pitt 20
Rodgers MVP
Woodson 1 INT, 1 FF, and adding a sack too
February 4th, 2011 at 6:55 PM
dammit, I called 27-17 earlier today.
Gimme 30-20 Steelers, I guess.
February 4th, 2011 at 6:55 PM
Packers, 40-28 over Steelers.
February 4th, 2011 at 6:56 PM
wow, you really see GB scoring 41 points on that defense.
wo
February 4th, 2011 at 6:57 PM
So Lisk has GB 5 and Pittsburgh 9 for his squares?
GB 34-17 (didn’t Favre win his 31-17 – Rodgers has to top that).
February 4th, 2011 at 6:58 PM
You get it. +1.
February 4th, 2011 at 6:58 PM
I clicked on the Reilly column and couldnt even get past the caption for the picture.
He states that Packer fans are loyal. Ummm, did he forget the whole Favre thing that divided a fanbase?
February 4th, 2011 at 7:01 PM
I’ve known this for a long time, but god is Reilly an unsufferable douchebag.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:02 PM
dammit, I called 27-17 earlier today.
You can also share the prize when we win.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:02 PM
What fanbase isn’t loyal. Shit, the Bungles have fans.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:03 PM
yay!
February 4th, 2011 at 7:04 PM
No shit right.
Plus there is ZERO else happening in G.B. so being a Packer fan is almost by default.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:05 PM
So Lisk drew 5 and 9 in one of his Super Bowl boxes. I understand.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:06 PM
Went 24~20 Pack is an earlier post, but I see that’s taken. So 28~17 Pack.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:07 PM
So Lisk drew 5 and 9 in one of his Super Bowl boxes. I understand.
TSH gets it.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:11 PM
Spot on. Not surprise that Reilly is spouting off crap, he has been phoning it in for years.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:11 PM
23-21 GB. Two years ago I predicted the score and TBL sent me like $150 check or something like that, which at the time, I desperately needed being broke and in college and all. Two years later. I’m in the same exact spot. Anyone that wants my address to send donations, give me a shout.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:11 PM
So Lisk drew 5 and 9 in one of his Super Bowl boxes. I understand.
TSH gets it.
Breesus got it first.
/just saying.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:12 PM
steelers 17 packers 14
February 4th, 2011 at 7:12 PM
Green Bay 35 Pittsburgh 20.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:12 PM
Two years ago I predicted the score and TBL sent me like $150 check
FSV has a tighter control of the budget now.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:13 PM
Packers – 31
Steelers – 21
February 4th, 2011 at 7:19 PM
The only boxes worse than 5 and 9 are 5 and 5
February 4th, 2011 at 7:19 PM
Charlotte up 17-9 on Miami so far…. go bobcats! LOL
February 4th, 2011 at 7:20 PM
Man no love for the #1 defense in the NFL. A lot of predictions with GB getting 30+ points.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:21 PM
Yeah whats your addy? Just put it in the post here…
February 4th, 2011 at 7:23 PM
Exactly. Lots of people around here are picking 30+ pts for the Packers.
Remember, 3 of the last 4 Packers games have been decided on the last drive:
Last game of the season against Chicago. Ended in a pick.
Game in Philly in wild card round. Ended in a pick.
Then Atlanta blowout.
Then against the Bears in the NFC Championship. Ended in a pick.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:25 PM
gotta reflect my bets….so steelers 31, green bay 24
February 4th, 2011 at 7:26 PM
Heathen Okoye is still my favorite.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:28 PM
I preferred the yet to be used
OverpaidRummy
February 4th, 2011 at 7:30 PM
I do not appreciate your pot shot on a Friday night, Mr. Lisk. I hope your plastic kiddie picnic table is crushed underneath all that snow so you don’t have a joyous place to enjoy your summer lunches.
/runs away crying
February 4th, 2011 at 7:31 PM
my analysis….roethlisberger does not go ddown easy, so woodson will have to hit like a hammer to get someone’s prediction of a force fumble, and in general he does not go down easy and throws well on the run and is clutch. mendenhall the better RB, the new center did a fine job replacing pouncey in a small sample size. steelers will get him comfy with lots of early running. pack needs to figure out steelers D, and if they do spread it out, this will be adjusted to. white guy KR will set them up well, and they will score late to make an ugly score better.
/i pray for no PI calls of more than 15 yards
//my square #s are 6 for pitt and 5 for pack
///ugh
February 4th, 2011 at 7:33 PM
vladdy i’m waiting for a special occasion. brawny, hi
February 4th, 2011 at 7:33 PM
Steelers 34 – Packers 28
Topic: The Rooney Rule.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:33 PM
LGRW
Hoping Jimmy doesn’t give up 4 or more goals tonight!
/prepares to be disappointed
February 4th, 2011 at 7:34 PM
Packers, 40-28 over Steelers.
wait! they’re playing the steelers?!
February 4th, 2011 at 7:37 PM
Packers 31 – Steelers 17
February 4th, 2011 at 7:40 PM
Broody Valentine, Vez. It’s seasonal.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:42 PM
Pack 26, Steelers 20. Assuming that’s not taken. And, honestly, even if it is.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:42 PM
It’s been awhile since we had a Jets post on here.
I bet TBL will have a “If the jets were in the super bowl” post up tomorrow
February 4th, 2011 at 7:48 PM
I’m so keeno on Beef-a-rino. What a delicious cuisino. Fit for a king and queeno.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:53 PM
ha, funny stuff KC.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:54 PM
cool mantis. what’s yer pick?
February 4th, 2011 at 7:55 PM
Please. Don’t ever do that again.
February 4th, 2011 at 7:58 PM
Bite me. I’ll quote Seinfeld whenever I damn well please.
February 4th, 2011 at 8:01 PM
Honestly, I thought you did it on a whim, and it scared me. Never was a Seinfeld guy.
February 4th, 2011 at 8:02 PM
you lose. punishment? whatever the other commenters say.
February 4th, 2011 at 8:08 PM
Kevin Love officially named Yao’s replacement. He should have made it in the first place, but glad he got on there somehow. Now there just needs to be one more injury so Monta can get on there!
February 4th, 2011 at 8:09 PM
Dustin Jeffery scores again for the pens. I’ll take any goal now the Malkin is hurt AGAIN.
February 4th, 2011 at 8:14 PM
Me Geno duuuuuur
February 4th, 2011 at 8:17 PM
Your comment is inaccurate. His English has gotten better, which saddens me.
February 4th, 2011 at 8:21 PM
sunnyside thought he’d get all “rebel without a cause” on twitter…ahahahaha
February 4th, 2011 at 8:21 PM
Early 90′s Fedorov was golden.
I neeeed nuuu glove
February 4th, 2011 at 8:25 PM
Since there was a converastion about man caves yesterday, here’s an article on yahoo that shows a few….
http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/man-caves-for-super-bowl-sunday.html
February 4th, 2011 at 8:28 PM
i totally did
February 4th, 2011 at 8:32 PM
It kind of amazes me that so many people are taking the Packers.
Steelers 26, Packers 20
February 4th, 2011 at 8:35 PM
I liked TBL’s response more: “do you guys hate that guy? why? who is he?”
February 4th, 2011 at 8:38 PM
why is larry the cable guy’s “man cave” feature what looks like a 32″ inch TV? Unless there’s another side of the room with a bigger screen, I’d turn down his invite and stay at home.
February 4th, 2011 at 8:49 PM
Packers 27-17
Topic to come later.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:00 PM
that was the best part
February 4th, 2011 at 9:07 PM
Since there was a converastion about man caves yesterday, here’s an article on yahoo that shows a few….
Mancave sounds like an underground gay disco for beefy gays.
I liked TBL’s response more: “do you guys hate that guy? why? who is he?”
Some guy.
/tbl’d
February 4th, 2011 at 9:08 PM
Steelers 28
PACK 24
February 4th, 2011 at 9:09 PM
I wanna fight the Wings PP. Fucking pass, screen, shoot, crash.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:11 PM
Honestly, with nearly EVERYBODY talking about how evenly matched both teams are and how this could be a great Super Bowl, is it weird I’m thinking we could get a turd sandwich this Sunday?
/Doesn’t care, will enjoy the game anyway
//Provided the Packers win
Green Bay 33
(Sh)ittsburgh 17
February 4th, 2011 at 9:18 PM
This game is going to be lower scoring than everyone is predicting. Teams always play tighter and are less efficient in the 1st half of most super bowls. Hell, everyone thought last year was going to be a classic shootout, and it was the opposite.
It’s going to be a 20-17, 17-13 type game.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:25 PM
I’m out for the night, time to begin the weekend. Go Steelers!!
/Fist bumps Mantis
//Waves Terrible Towel
February 4th, 2011 at 9:30 PM
This game is going to be lower scoring than everyone is predicting
Agreed.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:34 PM
KG is a bitch and not in a good way.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:37 PM
This game is going to be lower scoring than everyone is predicting. Teams always play tighter and are less efficient in the 1st half of most super bowls. Hell, everyone thought last year was going to be a classic shootout, and it was the opposite.
It’s going to be a 20-17, 17-13 type game.
Hell, I can also see that. So…
Packers 14
Steelers 9
February 4th, 2011 at 9:39 PM
I am so not fired up for this Super Bowl. I honestly don’t even feel like making a prediction.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:40 PM
31 – 29 Packers.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:40 PM
This.
No rooting interest means I will drink more beer.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:43 PM
I am so not fired up for this Super Bowl. I honestly don’t even feel like making a prediction.
Okay, Francine, fine…which commercial are you most excited about? (wanking motion)
/Is really excited for the Captain America trailer
February 4th, 2011 at 9:44 PM
Same here. At least I’m going to my uncles. He has a mini-mansion.
February 4th, 2011 at 9:49 PM
I’m staying in tonight snd tomorrow to be fresh. I’m already pacing around the apartment and listening to the Rocky IV soundtrack.
February 4th, 2011 at 10:08 PM
The acoustic live version of In Memory Of Elizabeth Reed is fantastic.
February 4th, 2011 at 10:23 PM
I am so not fired up for this Super Bowl. I honestly don’t even feel like making a prediction.
Just pick Pitt winning 27-17 and you can split the pot with me and two others.
The acoustic live version of In Memory Of Elizabeth Reed is fantastic.
You and I can be friends. Nice.
February 4th, 2011 at 10:24 PM
Saw ‘The Knowing.’
Liked the concept (sci-fi-ish … end of days stuff, etc) … and it had me for about an hour. then it just went off the deep end with some really dumb, lame crap.
February 4th, 2011 at 10:26 PM
13-10 Steelers.
February 4th, 2011 at 10:29 PM
tough loss for the Knicks. Shawne Williams, you have to shoot that when you’re open.
February 4th, 2011 at 10:32 PM
Jason Kidd on a bitch
February 4th, 2011 at 10:36 PM
It’s been a nice 24 hours. OSU over UM and the CBJ over the Wings. Anytime Michigan can get their ass handed to them twice in 24 hours is a good 24 hours for me.
February 4th, 2011 at 10:40 PM
I watched Clash Of The Titans yesterday. It was so bad I just fast forwarded through 90% of it. I feel so bad for Ralph Fiennes, he’s a really good actor, but except for Harry Potter whenever he does a mainstream movie he winds up in something embarrassing like The Avengers, Maid In Manhattan and now Clash Of The Titans. Costumes were horrible too, looked like rejected batsuits.
February 4th, 2011 at 10:56 PM
I watched Clash Of The Titans yesterday. It was so bad I just fast forwarded through 90% of it. I feel so bad for Ralph Fiennes, he’s a really good actor, but except for Harry Potter whenever he does a mainstream movie he winds up in something embarrassing like The Avengers, Maid In Manhattan and now Clash Of The Titans. Costumes were horrible too, looked like rejected batsuits.
All of this.
February 4th, 2011 at 11:21 PM
So it’s kind of quiet around here.
February 4th, 2011 at 11:23 PM
35-28, Packers.
February 4th, 2011 at 11:32 PM
Just finished this Lombardi program from HBO, what an incredible leader.
February 4th, 2011 at 11:41 PM
Fuck it. Packers 35-27
February 4th, 2011 at 11:55 PM
more overs than unders predicted. i’m splitting my 100 on steelers and the ovah
February 5th, 2011 at 12:12 AM
I think both teams play close to the vest. We know the pack will. That plus the steel defense…i am loading up on the under and don’t give a fuck who wins 21-17
February 5th, 2011 at 12:27 AM
Packers 30-27 over Steelers
Post topic: Why OJ is innocent
February 5th, 2011 at 12:29 AM
Because it’s black history month
February 5th, 2011 at 1:14 AM
Because it’s black history month
/tugs at collar
//is it hot in here?
February 5th, 2011 at 1:31 AM
Steelers 34, Packers 30
Topic: Chronic traumatic encephalopathy and the NFL
February 5th, 2011 at 9:54 AM
I missed this before now but:
Steelers 23, Packers 16. Also known as Rams-Titans II when Greg Jennings is stopped a yard shy of the goal line by James Farrior with no time left.
February 5th, 2011 at 1:43 PM
Noboys has gone with the steelers 24-20. It’s fishy how close Vegas gets so close to the total of the over unders.
February 5th, 2011 at 3:12 PM
Packers 33, Steelers 27, Overtime.