BCS Title Predictions: Auburn vs. Oregon
All, College Football, Commenters Doing All The Work January 10th. 2011, 12:45pm
The BCS Title Game is tonight. Jason’s prediction is on record here. Mine will come later after some exhaustive analysis. Since everyone comes here for the comments, this is your chance to enlighten us. Auburn or Oregon, who ya got? Guessing a lot of non-committal 37-34 predictions. [Photos via Getty]
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January 10th, 2011 at 12:46 PM
Auburn 48, Oregon 41
January 10th, 2011 at 12:46 PM
Oregon 52 – Auburn 38.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:47 PM
45-38, Oregon.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:47 PM
Oregon 41-38…great week for those in the Matthews family continues
January 10th, 2011 at 12:48 PM
52-48
January 10th, 2011 at 12:48 PM
Auburn 3 – Oregon 0
/2008 sun bowl’d
January 10th, 2011 at 12:49 PM
Oregon 55 – Auburn 37.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:49 PM
Newton, I’m pretty sure he’s placed a bet on himself.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:49 PM
Cam Newton – 42
Oregon – 35
January 10th, 2011 at 12:50 PM
I want Oregon to win this game badly…but I think the Auburn O-line dominates the line of scrimmage and I think the Auburn d-line does enough to trip up Oregon at times. I do think the AUB WRs are very average, so if it does come down to Cam having to make throws, I don’t think we’ll see wide open WRs like we did against South Carolina. Can he make the tight throws? That’s a huge question. The back 7 for AUB is abysmal, but they have fast LBs. If they can keep James from getting to the edge, this game could be over before the 4th quarter begins. I think Oregon gets plenty of points, but I see Fairley and his D-line mates doing just enough to win.
AUB 34
Oregon 31
January 10th, 2011 at 12:51 PM
It ends on Saturday.
/Matty Ice’d
January 10th, 2011 at 12:53 PM
Pretty much.
Unless you are an alum or a degenerate gambler, this game is just methadone for NFL junkies, who will be without their usual MNF game tonight.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:53 PM
Oregon 45
Auburn 31
January 10th, 2011 at 12:53 PM
For TBL: Gold is a bubble.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:54 PM
Almost too easy…
January 10th, 2011 at 12:55 PM
This is really on the second BCS title game that i’m actually looking forward to. USC-Texas being the other one.
I’ve thought Auburn the last 5 weeks, but the PAC 10 is a little better than what they’re getting credit for and the way Oregon eviscerated a really good Stanford D almost changed my mind. But Fairley and the D Line can slow dow the Ducks more than Mathews and Company can slow Money Grubbin Cam.
Auburn 34 Oregon 24, Michael Dyer MVP, Auburn is stripped of the trophy in 2014.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:55 PM
Spot on.
I have class tonight and likely won’t get home until the middle of the 3rd quarter. I’ll watch the finish, but I’m not going to DVR the game or anything so I can watch it in its entirety. This game with these two teams isn’t particularly appealing to me. Honestly, if there were a NHL game of consequence on tonight, I’d watch it over this.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:55 PM
auburn 48, oregon 17.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:56 PM
31-24 Auburn only because Oregon’s offense will be rusty after a month off.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:57 PM
I just want Auburn to win so that
1) Bama fans shut the fuck up
2) The inevitable investigation into their season
January 10th, 2011 at 12:57 PM
And AUB’s won’t?
January 10th, 2011 at 12:58 PM
Last I heard John Paulson was backing gold heavily. Should I doubt him or has he gotten off-board?
January 10th, 2011 at 12:58 PM
We have a group of 20 of us going to the bar to watch this game. None of us went to either school and only I am the degenerate gambler. This is a juicy matchup for any college football fan. Fun, gimicky (that was for Spence) offenses and iffy defense. Sign me up.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:58 PM
Saw Dan Wetzel can’t get to the title game b/c of the weather. 3rd time this winter flights have been grounded wreaking havoc on travel.I’m sure fans will drive cross country 4 straight weeks for playoff
January 10th, 2011 at 12:58 PM
2-0 Bob.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:59 PM
I think it’s going to be a lower score than some may think. I can see both offenses be very sloppy with the long lay off. Especially Oregon.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:59 PM
nick fairley is going to singlehandedly destroy the oregon offense. it’s going to be ugly.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:00 PM
It might be, but Oregon’s offense is such a rhythm offense that I can see them taking longer getting into stride.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:00 PM
/nods at rs27
//runs dive play
January 10th, 2011 at 1:01 PM
barstool sports with the greatest guess that ass day of all time.
1 and 2.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:01 PM
MS
maybe.
been hearing that for a few years now.
you seen the charts?
http://66.38.218.33/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html
if you were in Gold when i started to link it up here (06?) then you made a killing.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:02 PM
Auburn 33 Oregon 28
January 10th, 2011 at 1:02 PM
nick fairley is going to singlehandedly destroy the oregon offense. it’s going to be ugly.
and hopefully will be wearing a Bills uni next year & doing it to the Jets, Phins & Pats twice/year for 10 years
January 10th, 2011 at 1:03 PM
65-43 Auburn. Arkansas game version 2.0.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:04 PM
Oregon 52-Auburn 21. And it won’t be that close.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:04 PM
I knew both of those asses
/saw the pics earlier this morning
January 10th, 2011 at 1:04 PM
Holy crap. I just saw the O/U is 74 on this game. Bet there’s a ton of people taking the under.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:04 PM
41-27 Oregon
January 10th, 2011 at 1:05 PM
Already made my bet for the under. Is the line for the game still Auburn -3?
January 10th, 2011 at 1:06 PM
listen, im all for prognostication and everything, but there isn’t a single bit of anecdotal, observational or statistical evidence out there to support this. i know any given [whateverday] and all that, but auburn has the advantage in size, scheme and has actually been tested by a real, live, talented opponent this year. oregon has played the little sisters of the poor.
and i hope you wiped the poo off of there before posting after pulling that prediction out of your ass.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:08 PM
I really would love to see TCU against Auburn. I don’t think they match up as well with Oregon, but I was shocked at home much power they have in their front 7, the way they really beat up a vaunted Wisconsin rushing attack. Auburn struggles against strong physical teams (like Bama)
PS in case anyone shows me the top two rushers for WI were 200+ yds and 6 ypc, if you take away the three longest runs, they were under 4 ypc. And yes that is a valid statistical measure because in a limited attempt (down) situation, median ypc is more important than average ypc. And if anyone disagrees, they are basically parroting Gregg Easterbrook’s bullshit.
/Pre-emptive
January 10th, 2011 at 1:08 PM
The best result would be a tie game so that everyone can have a slice of pizza and be a winner together!
January 10th, 2011 at 1:09 PM
I think the second half over is the play here. At some books you can get the second half right now at 35.5. If you figure some rust to start that’s a great way to play it.
Bodog is offering the o/u at 72 right now.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:09 PM
65-43 Auburn. Arkansas game 2.0.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:10 PM
here’s why im not parroting gregg easterbrook’s BS…
a) i don’t know what he said
b) you can’t take away those runs no matter how hard you try
January 10th, 2011 at 1:10 PM
/runs
January 10th, 2011 at 1:11 PM
if you take away all those tiny runs, WISCONSIN AVERAGED 76 YARDS PER RUN!!1!11OMGZORS!q!1one
January 10th, 2011 at 1:11 PM
Why is the game being played so late anyway? Whats the thinking behind that?
January 10th, 2011 at 1:11 PM
January 10th, 2011 at 1:12 PM
MS
maybe.
been hearing that for a few years now.
you seen the charts?
http://66.38.218.33/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html
if you were in Gold when i started to link it up here (06?) then you made a killing.
The article mentions gold’s increased value over the past few years, but they also assert that it’s based on fear. Which is difficult to dispute. Bubbles rarely look like bubbles until right as they are popping. And while the short term return might be good, if you were actually to ‘hoard gold’ in anticipation of something, say a breakdown of the U.S. financial system and society, then you might be sad to learn that you will probably not make your money back.
Also bears mentioning that those who bought gold in 1980, didn’t make a dime off of it until 2005 and even today most 1980 gold investors have not made a return on the original investment. So continue buying gold at your own risk.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:13 PM
Yes, if you take away the good plays it does help state your case that they didn’t do very well…the Badgers needed to stick with the run in that game and only fucked themselves over when they started throwing too often
January 10th, 2011 at 1:14 PM
Actual college football reporters have been there for a week. Hack anti-establishment rabble rousers show up the day of the game.
As for the title game: Penn State 152 – Opponent 0
January 10th, 2011 at 1:14 PM
A 32 yard run and three 0 yard runs is 8 yard average, and a punt. Four 8 yard runs, you still have the ball. Giving up a single big play is better than many shorter (but positive) plays defensively. Just ask the Colts.
Median > Mean.
/ ‘>’ means more important, not greater than
January 10th, 2011 at 1:16 PM
Butters: I’m just saying that 6 ypc is pretty misleading. Wisc got stopped short a lot of times. I expected them to be gashed 6 yards every time a back in red touched the ball. You can survive giving up a few long runs. You can’t survive giving up 6 yards every time.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:16 PM
wrong. any reasonable analysis is going to include both and will consider each with equal weight.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:18 PM
that’s so patently false i don’t even know where to begin.
show me the defense that says “that’s fine, we’ll give up big plays, but you’re not getting a yard on us” and i’ll shwo you a defense that’s either fucking terrible or run successfully by a ryan while flying in the face of convention.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:18 PM
Big 10 fans crack me up.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:18 PM
I dont care if you don’t understand my point, however I assure you it is both statistically valid, and important to winning games.
Also, maybe they had to throw because after every 15 yard run, they got stopped twice and faced 3rd and long.
Short runs (and incomplete passes) get you off the field. The number of “no-gain” plays is more important than the longer plays.
/Expected a little more knowledge on the subject here
January 10th, 2011 at 1:18 PM
Auburn 44, Oregon 24.
But I’m pulling for Oregon. Not betting the game.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:18 PM
So is Duffy calling out J-Mac here?
January 10th, 2011 at 1:19 PM
The article mentions gold’s increased value over the past few years, but they also assert that it’s based on fear. Which is difficult to dispute. Bubbles rarely look like bubbles until right as they are popping. And while the short term return might be good, if you were actually to ‘hoard gold’ in anticipation of something, say a breakdown of the U.S. financial system and society, then you might be sad to learn that you will probably not make your money back.
Also bears mentioning that those who bought gold in 1980, didn’t make a dime off of it until 2005 and even today most 1980 gold investors have not made a return on the original investment. So continue buying gold at your own risk.
I’ve got a friend who is like the Unabomber in terms of preparing for Armageddon. He has rations, special clothing, etc. He’s been buying gold & silver for a long time, & is CONVINCED gold & silver are going to go waay up. He said there might be a correction coming, then, sometime after April/May, it’s going up
January 10th, 2011 at 1:20 PM
Spencer: go back to the scenario I said. Which is better? I dont think you ever “want” to give up big plays (and the Patriots are obviously known for bend/not break), but you have to get “no-gain” plays to get off the field. And that is more important than the number of 12 yard runs you give up.
/Never meant to imply that you WANT to give up big plays
January 10th, 2011 at 1:20 PM
Man, just think if we had a playoff that this could be the…um…championship game?
Yeah, that’s it.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:20 PM
Auburn 34
Oregon 24
I don’t think it’s going to be as high scoring as many people think. Rust and both teams coming out tight will be two reasons. Both of these teams have got off to slow starts in games as well.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:20 PM
Just looking at these predictions…..I am loading up on the under. Everyone under the sun thinks this thing is gonna be a shootout. No way after the layoff and figuring in the nerves of playing on this big of a stage, do the offenses immediately click on all cylinders. I say its something like 30-24 Auburn.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:21 PM
actually, what’s statistically valid is considering mean, median, and standard deviation and perfoming an analysis that values the contribution of all three.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:21 PM
I’ve got a friend who is like the Unabomber in terms of preparing for Armageddon. He has rations, special clothing, etc. He’s been buying gold & silver for a long time, & is CONVINCED gold & silver are going to go waay up. He said there might be a correction coming, then, sometime after April/May, it’s going up
If you’re friend asks you to buy some ‘excess inventory’ from him in the spring, I wouldn’t consider it if I were you.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:21 PM
Considering Oregon played one team that finished in the top 25, I don’t think it unreasonable to think they wouldn’t have made the Championship game in a playoff.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:22 PM
right, but unfortunately, that’s not what was taking place. wisconsin wasn’t getting knocked off the field, in fact, they dominated the TOP by 13 minutes.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:22 PM
I’m ending my part of this thread here, because I have shit to do at work, but do yourself a favor and think about the statistics involved. I’m a molecular geneticist, formally trained in statistics… I wouldn’t lie to you.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:22 PM
That’s what I was thinking as well. The layoff will most likely knock each team’s total down by 7-10 points if this were in mid-season.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:23 PM
I am loading up on the first half under 36.5
January 10th, 2011 at 1:23 PM
I’m a molecular geneticist, formally trained in statistics… I wouldn’t lie to you.
Someone is wearing their big boy britches today.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:24 PM
Oregon 44 – Auburn 41
January 10th, 2011 at 1:24 PM
Yep. Because TCU had no big plays running, and no small plays either… Frankly I thought going in, WI would beat either of the teams playing tonight. In the end, they lost (and I explained why I think they lost), so maybe that same reason could give TCU a chance against Auburn.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:25 PM
Larry Hagman is apparently still alive: http://www.cnn.com/2011/SHOWBIZ/TV/01/07/dallas.reboot.scoop.ew/index.html?hpt=Sbin
My favorite part:
Meanwhile, Hagman told EW in September that he continues to make appearances on behalf of “Dallas,” which syndicates in 60 countries today.
“It’s like an annuity, really,” Hagman, 78, said. “I go out, they adore me, and then they pay you. What better job can you have?” He seemed willing to do the “Dallas” reboot.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:26 PM
Cleveland 117 San Antonio 109
/holistic healer’d
January 10th, 2011 at 1:26 PM
I will probably sit this one out after my 0-fer the NFL weekend. If forced to choose, I’d take the points with ORE and the under.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:26 PM
Easy ms621, I’m just trying to add that I don’t take statistics lightly, and I’m not just pulling shit out of ass here.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:26 PM
if i go back to your scenario, i see a four carry sample size. and in that case, i take the big play every day.
there have been plenty of efficient offenses that had trouble scoring points. there’s a reason the guys who can get those 32 yard big plays get paid ridiculous sums of money, not just because of the points, but because of the emotional effect it has on your opponent.
there’s no clear cut, one way to do things. if you have a team full of nickel and dimers, you’re going to get nickels and dimes for points. if you have a team full of huge risk/huge reward players, you’re not going to be consistent. that’s what’s great about football…there’s so many different ways to approach the strategy and no set way to do it.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:27 PM
Oregon 39
Auburn 32
Huzzah for Hully Gully Football
January 10th, 2011 at 1:28 PM
Have they arrested her yet for being an accessory to an assassination attempt?
Oregon 34, Auburn 28
January 10th, 2011 at 1:28 PM
Easy ms621, I’m just trying to add that I don’t take statistics lightly, and I’m not just pulling shit out of ass here.
It’s cool, you’re saying that just made me think of Will Ferrell yelling out “I’m a division manager! People fear me!”
January 10th, 2011 at 1:28 PM
I’ve got a friend who is like the Unabomber in terms of preparing for Armageddon
My understanding is that Mr. Kaczynski’s self-sufficiency was not a product of a belief in a coming armageddon (though he would very much like one) but rather a protest against a society that fundamentally lacks the freedom most people claim they want.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:28 PM
But did you stay at a Holiday Inn last night?
January 10th, 2011 at 1:28 PM
I think this game is pretty comparable to Texas-USC. Those teams were really rusty out the gate but exploded in the second half. The game was “only” 16-10 at the half and ended 41-38. I think it’ll end up high scoring but it will be pretty iffy at the start.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:28 PM
What the hell is going on here?
I’m rooting for the game to end before 1am LeBron Standard Time.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:29 PM
i still think wisky would hang 70 on oregon, but that’s because im irreparably biased.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:29 PM
My TV is being delivered friday. Now I dont have to go out to watch the game at a Bar and get so drunk I start crying.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:29 PM
Have they arrested her yet for being an accessory to an assassination attempt?
I’m working on getting her blamed for the Housing Bubble as we speak.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:30 PM
it was actually a reaction in horror over the realization that he aligned himself with the university of pure shit, ann arbor campus.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:30 PM
I drive a Dodge Stratus!!!
January 10th, 2011 at 1:30 PM
Yeah, but it was the best 1-loss team in the country and they dominated them.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:31 PM
Auburn 45
Oregon 16
I hope this is anti-non-committal enough for RTD.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:31 PM
My understanding is that Mr. Kaczynski’s self-sufficiency was not a product of a belief in a coming armageddon (though he would very much like one) but rather a protest against a society that fundamentally lacks the freedom most people claim they want.
Interesting. What do you think his feelings on Shoshon’s politics would be?
/cue singing.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:32 PM
it was actually a reaction in horror over the realization that he aligned himself with the university of pure shit, ann arbor campus.
My understanding is that Mr. Kaczynski is unconcerned with college football rivalries.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:33 PM
I don’t think that’s true at all. And I don’t know the stats, but just watching the Patriots all year, they are (and except for 2007-09 always have been) a classic nickel and dime team. Usually manage to put up decent offensive numbers though because of efficiency (median yards).
And that’s not a sample size, its a subset. The sample size is the median yards per carry over 35 rushes for WI in that game. I was just trying to give an example of how median can be more important than mean. Mean is supposed to represent a population average. If you had infinite number of plays to run, and averaged 4 ypc, you would always average a first down in less than 3 plays. Since such a high percent of plays go for 1 yard or less (probably around 40%, including incomplete passes), it’s stringing three of these plays together that results in change of possession. Otherwise any team averaging 3.3 yards per play would never punt.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:34 PM
Interesting. What do you think his feelings on Shoshon’s politics would be?
My understanding is that Mr. Kacynski would be vigorously opposed to any type of totalitarian/facist government, perhaps even more so than he is opposed to our current model.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:34 PM
wrong, his primary concern was regional pissing matches.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:34 PM
I drive a Dodge Stratus!!!
“Did you pick up my things from the dry cleaners today?”
“Oh yeah, I did, but they said it wouldn’t be ready until Friday.”
“Oh. I wish you weren’t a liar.”
January 10th, 2011 at 1:34 PM
Mad Hatter will soon be owning Sweater Vest and his transition lenses.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:34 PM
I remember two things about that show growing up:
1.) The theme song.
2.) Charlene Tilton.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:36 PM
Despite his reputation as a wacko, his theories on technology and its role in our lives was actually really ahead of its time. He’s regularly quoted by the foremost authors on technology and society. One of his main claims was that we would become so dependent on technology that it would literally own us and we would be unable to turn it off even if we wanted too (/checks iPhone).
Truly one of the great “Michigan Men” of our time. (snickers)
January 10th, 2011 at 1:39 PM
brady averages almost 8 YPA…that’s not nickel and diming, no matter how short the passes travel. the pats might not stretch the field all the time, but they do take shots and that’s the point.
a great example of this is the packers…mike mccarthy says he doesn’t care about YPC, rather, he cares about attempts. sure, the packers’ running game might not be effective, but it’s effective in keeping the defense honest.
going back to the rose bowl, sure wisconsin might not have been as efficient as they had shown, but when it comes down to those last couple of yards, was their running game bad enough to put the ball in tolzien’s hands? i don’t think so.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:40 PM
I’m fairly certain if she was involved in any way it would have been a rifle, not a handgun.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:41 PM
Unless you run an a spread offense, right Spencer? Because those are for lazy people.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:41 PM
a) i hate tressel’s transition lenses
b) is he bringing LSU’s team with him?
January 10th, 2011 at 1:42 PM
I can see this game going a lot of different ways. Look for Oregon to run options sideline to sideline with their running game than the zone reads up the middle. Obviously turnovers will be huge. Thomas has to throw the ball down the field for Oregon to score consistently. Auburn’s offense is better because of Newton, but Oregon’s defense and special teams are better.
Oregon 43
Auburn 31
January 10th, 2011 at 1:43 PM
Probably not. Especially not the way he played I guess (I missed the last quarter).
In the end, all I’m trying to say is that you can beat a team who outgains you, if you can string together enough “no-gain” plays to get the ball back more often than the ‘average’ yards per play would suggest.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:43 PM
lazy AND stupid people, actually.
gtfo.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:45 PM
and now we’re in agreement.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:45 PM
That’s raycess.
Oh, honest question. Do you think that dealership in Columbus will let me take a test drive to Boston? I want my friend who lives there to tell me if I should buy a car.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:46 PM
You know, I just control F’d this entire post and there isn’t a single mention of the word “fag” or any derivative. What the hell, people? All I ask is for a little effort.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:49 PM
do you prequalify*?
*you must be this good at football to qualify
/holds hand above your head
so sorry…
January 10th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Fine.
/settles for free tatoos
January 10th, 2011 at 1:56 PM
like wolverines haven’t gotten free tats too. come on man. none of these guys can pay for em.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:59 PM
Possibly, but the Wolverines aren’t dumb enough to get caught.
January 10th, 2011 at 2:01 PM
no, yall are just dumb enough to get caught practicing too much.
which brings us to today’s important lesson for all the kiddies out there…perfect practice makes perfect, otherwise you end up getting waxed by the 5th best team in the SEC west.
January 10th, 2011 at 2:05 PM
I’m generally a contrarian , so I took Oregon in a bowl pool and win it if the Ducks win. Not extremely confident in it.
January 10th, 2011 at 2:22 PM
My understanding is that Mr. Kaczynski’s self-sufficiency was not a product of a belief in a coming armageddon (though he would very much like one) but rather a protest against a society that fundamentally lacks the freedom most people claim they want.
Thanks for the correction, Debbie Downer
January 10th, 2011 at 2:24 PM
Oregon – 42
Auburn – 28
/Oregon 65 – TCU 62
January 10th, 2011 at 2:28 PM
All depends on AU’s front defensive 7. Fairley will play less than 1/2 the game if OU keeps the fast pace. Still too many athletes vs OU line.
Auburn 27 – 17
January 10th, 2011 at 2:42 PM
Finally beating an SEC team in a bowl game does not give you permission to talk about other teams in bowl games.
57-44-6
January 10th, 2011 at 2:43 PM
As much as I want Oregon to win (versus having Auburn vacate their championship in 2014), I think Auburn takes it 38-26.
I think it is 21-6 at the half, with Oregon struggling to get their offense going. They make a run in the 3rd to make it close, but Auburn has a late score to wrap it up. And I get the feeling that the Ducks end up with too many chip shot field goals in the red zone.
Or I’m completely wrong, and it is Auburn 70, Oregon -20. (Hat tip to Da Super Fans from SNL).