Home Underdogs in the NFL Playoffs
In the first round of the playoffs, two teams will take their home field as decided underdogs. Much debate in recent years has centered around whether division winners should get automatic home games or not. Those who believe that division winners should get the home game regardless of record cite to the devaluing of winning a division.
My position on that is division winners get a big enough advantage from getting automatic qualification into the tournament, regardless of how well they fared against the rest of the league. I’m not sure we want to confer an extra advantage over other conference teams. Make no mistake–it is an advantage. Certainly not determinative of a game’s outcome alone, but a subtle advantage that we can see over thousands of games.
It even says so right in the name-home field ADVANTAGE. Not only is it an advantage, but it is at its strongest when teams are closer in talent, and particularly when the home team is slightly worse than the visitor. How much of an advantage? Well, the teams that have been home underdogs in the playoffs have fared pretty well. I find it amusing when people cite to the 2008 Arizona Cardinals as evidence that division winners deserve home games, because they were able to advance despite a poor regular season record. It is a rather circular argument, as they advanced, in part, because they had a new stadium and were able to play two home games (plus one Jake Delhomme special) against teams that had a superior record in the conference.
I was able to piece together point spread data from recent sources and then fill in with newspaper archives from the 1980′s, and I have found 26 occasions since 1980 where a team playing at home in the playoffs was an underdog per the point spread. Those teams are 17-9 straight up in winning the playoff contest, and 18-7-1 against the spread. In recent years, it hasn’t been quite as strong (3-5 straight up, 4-4 ATS since 2004), but I’m not ready to declare that the home dog is dead.
You’ve been warned, Baltimore and New Orleans.
Here is the complete list of home dogs since 1980 (w=wildcard round, d=division round, c=conf. championship):
| Year | Round | Home | Line | Away | Home | Away | ||
| 2008 | w | ARIZONA | +1 | Atlanta | 30 | 24 | ||
| 2008 | c | ARIZONA | +2.5 | Philadelphia | 32 | 25 | ||
| 2008 | w | MIAMI | +3.5 | Baltimore | 9 | 27 | ||
| 2008 | w | SAN DIEGO | +1.5 | Indianapolis | 23 | 17 | ||
| 2008 | w | MINNESOTA | +3 | Philadelphia | 14 | 26 | ||
| 2007 | w | PITTSBURGH | +3 | Jacksonville | 29 | 31 | ||
| 2005 | w | CINCINNATI | +3 | Pittsburgh | 17 | 31 | ||
| 2004 | c | PITTSBURGH | +3 | New England | 27 | 41 | ||
| 2000 | c | NY GIANTS | +2.5 | Minnesota | 41 | 0 | ||
| 2000 | w | MIAMI | +2 | Indianapolis | 23 | 17 | ||
| 2000 | w | NEW ORLEANS | +6.5 | St. Louis | 31 | 28 | ||
| 2000 | w | PHILADELPHIA | +3 | Tampa Bay | 21 | 3 | ||
| 1997 | c | PITTSBURGH | +3 | Denver | 21 | 24 | ||
| 1997 | c | SAN FRAN | +2.5 | Green Bay | 10 | 23 | ||
| 1996 | d | CAROLINA | +3 | Dallas | 26 | 17 | ||
| 1995 | w | PHILADELPHIA | +3 | Detroit | 58 | 37 | ||
| 1992 | c | MIAMI | +2.5 | Buffalo | 10 | 29 | ||
| 1992 | d | MIAMI | +1 | San Diego | 31 | 0 | ||
| 1991 | d | DETROIT | +1 | Dallas | 38 | 6 | ||
| 1988 | c | CHICAGO | +1 | San Francisco | 3 | 28 | ||
| 1985 | w | NY GIANTS | +3 | San Francisco | 17 | 3 | ||
| 1984 | w | SEATTLE | +1.5 | Los Angeles Raiders | 13 | 7 | ||
| 1982 | c | WASHINGTON | +2 | Dallas | 31 | 17 | ||
| 1982 | d | MIAMI | +2 | San Diego | 34 | 13 | ||
| 1981 | c | SAN FRAN | +2.5 | Dallas | 28 | 27 | ||
| 1980 | c | PHILADELPHIA | +1 | Dallas | 20 | 7 | ||
[photo via Getty]
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January 5th, 2011 at 1:32 PM
kc much easier pick than the blue/green
January 5th, 2011 at 1:33 PM
I’m going to puke if Seattle wins.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:37 PM
Is this chart missing a column (road score)?
I will be involved in one degenerate 3-team, 7.5 (+140) tease this weekend, I just don’t know what yet — suggestions welcome.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:37 PM
Is the chart incomplete? Looks like there is a “Home” column for the points the home team scored, but we are missing a “Visitor” column.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:37 PM
Is it just me, or is that list missing a column?
January 5th, 2011 at 1:38 PM
how could I forget that game. What a debacle.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:39 PM
People are saying there might be a column missing.
Supportive Source Link
January 5th, 2011 at 1:39 PM
More importantly than a column, is the picture missing a caption?
January 5th, 2011 at 1:40 PM
@Mike. I’m taking a couple of two-teamers. Combination of Hawks, Packers, and Jets. Packers and Jets to 10 point cushions and Hawks to almost 18.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:40 PM
You’ve got more hair on your face than I have on my head.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:41 PM
Awesome caption, Lisk.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:41 PM
Caption: Dude, seriously, smell this.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:42 PM
Sure Seattle is mediocre but traveling to the west coast on 6 days rest won’t be an easy task for the Saints. They should win but I wouldn’t be shocked if its still a game in the 2nd half.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:42 PM
That is a thing of beauty. Bravo on your out-Hernia’ing Hernia.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:43 PM
I think there’s a column missing
/wins ARE a stat!
January 5th, 2011 at 1:43 PM
as long as the ravens defense is on the field to commit stupid personal fouls their opponent will have a chance to win the game.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:45 PM
Dude, I think there is a column missing.
/Yunel’d
January 5th, 2011 at 1:46 PM
The 2008 playoffs were a hot mess from start to finish
Agreed with Lisk about the home game thing, also think from Goodell’s perspective adding in seeding battles could help add some zip to Week 17 that is usually lacking…the Eagles would have had to play their guys if a loss meant having to travel to Lambeau this weekend
January 5th, 2011 at 1:48 PM
This HHHAASSSSS to be a joke, right?
January 5th, 2011 at 1:48 PM
careful, that “zip” and change to the seeding could be used as an argument for adding weeks 18 and 19 to the schedule.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:49 PM
I just can’t bet on Seattle. I actually like a couple over/unders the most: Jets/Colts u52 and Eagles/Packers o38.5.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:49 PM
good post Steve DeBerg fan. im betting big money on the Ravens to win the Super Bowl
January 5th, 2011 at 1:50 PM
Its certainly not out of the question that Seattle pulls a win out its ass, weather as of now is raining and high 30′s on Saturday. Sea chickens kept in reasonably close in the Superdome in November. We’ve seen NO look pretty average outdoors.
The 2009 playoffs featured 4 good games and a healthy pile of poo.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:51 PM
This HHHAASSSSS to be a joke, right?
Oh my
January 5th, 2011 at 1:52 PM
you ever see those commercials where the little kids make up a story about how much cheese is packed into a cheezit? i think freddiemitchell wrote them.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:53 PM
Eagles/Packers o38.5
wow, i’d bet 1000 of yer dollars on the ovah
January 5th, 2011 at 1:53 PM
Freddie Mitchell needs to be killed with fire
January 5th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Knowing FredEx…probably not.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Why do people keep fucking talking to Freddie Mitchell? DIAF
January 5th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
I’d love KC’s chances if I knew for sure Bowe was playing, because Balt doesn’t have a legit corner to stay with him. The Ravens would have to shut down the run completely, which they’re good at obviously, but KC’s dictated their style against most teams this year. Arrowhead’s also a huge factor for KC’s young defense, IMO. I don’t trust Flacco on the road in that environment.
Fuck Seattle
January 5th, 2011 at 1:56 PM
I would take New Orleans down to 3, bump the Ravens/chiefs to under 48.5 and the Packers/Eagles to over 39.
I could see the Jets and Colts scoring a ton especially if the Colts get behind at any point. Last year’s game was 30-17 which is one meaningless TD away from 54 and this year’s Jet D is worse.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:58 PM
Ha! Jersey that article makes my brain itchy. I would love to have McNabb just once come out and talk about what a bunch of shitboxes have been over the years. With the obvious exception of #89 this year, whom Donovan obviously failed
January 5th, 2011 at 1:58 PM
Any writer that starts with “We are nearing the seven-year anniversary of…” should be slapped with Oden’s Dong.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:58 PM
D’oh! Left out a “his WRs” after shitboxes
January 5th, 2011 at 1:59 PM
I dont trust Cassel anywhere.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:59 PM
What’s with the FredEx hate? He is the funniest dude in the history of the NFL.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:00 PM
This HHHAASSSSS to be a joke, right?
Knowing FredEx…probably not
tight with the peoples champ Baller? or did you defend him?
January 5th, 2011 at 2:01 PM
actually #89 quietly had a pretty damn good year.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:02 PM
Sadly, he likely believes every word of this.
He lives in a different reality, not unlike Randy Quaid.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:02 PM
Tremendous.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:02 PM
actually #89 quietly had a pretty damn good year
of course he did, look where he went to college
January 5th, 2011 at 2:02 PM
actually #89 quietly had a pretty damn good year.
I know that but Donovan still failed him. Santana Moss deserves better
January 5th, 2011 at 2:02 PM
The HoF and sabermetricians everywhere just broke the Twitter machine again.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:03 PM
Alomar and Blylevin!!!!
January 5th, 2011 at 2:03 PM
Robbie Alomar: In
Bert Blyeven: In
January 5th, 2011 at 2:03 PM
The next post is going to be EPIC.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:04 PM
For most guys, it takes a lot of years to read defenses like that.
He’s right. Of course, for elite NFL players those years happen sometime between the ages of 8-22 but that’s a lot of years, right?
January 5th, 2011 at 2:04 PM
The internet has won the WAR!
January 5th, 2011 at 2:04 PM
aloamr AND blyleven in
/santo turns over in box
January 5th, 2011 at 2:04 PM
Alomar & Blyleven in.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:04 PM
If they weren’t playing the Packers in a playoff game this weekend (against whom the 4th and 26 play happened), I doubt Tim McManus (who covers the Flyers AHL affiliate for his day job) would have even contacted him or even dredged this up.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:05 PM
I want to see some Fetch & Taguchi condescending smackdowns!
January 5th, 2011 at 2:05 PM
Only 6 votes for Tino? THE SYSTEM IS BROKEN!!!!!
January 5th, 2011 at 2:05 PM
Robbie’s speech should just be him standing at the podium while “Everyone’s Got AIDS!” plays and then, at the end, he spits into John Hirschbeck’s mouth again
January 5th, 2011 at 2:05 PM
Not that everyone wants to be first.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:05 PM
Marquis Grissom receiving 5 whole votes.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:06 PM
I see what you did there.
/congrats to that weird, old Dutch pitcher who likes to fart!
January 5th, 2011 at 2:06 PM
Good gravy the Eagles had shitty WRs.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:06 PM
was raines eligible?
January 5th, 2011 at 2:06 PM
There is an editor at ESPN (Barry Stanton) who didn’t vote for Alomar, Blyleven or Larkin but cast votes for Tino Martinez, Mattingly and B.J. Surhoff. I can’t even come up with a comment to do this justice. Incredible.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:06 PM
Bagwell had 41%, encouraging I guess. Glad to see Larkin that high.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:06 PM
The HOF shows that the writers hold too many grudges…Alomar should have been in last year.
Happy for Bert. Finally he gets his recognition.
Palmeiro 11% Bagwell just 42%, Martinez 33%, McGwire 20%. Sweet Justice.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:07 PM
Oh, I’m sure you will. I just hope Duffy writes it. It’ll limit the snark from the likes of those and their ilk.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:07 PM
I want to thank….my hands
January 5th, 2011 at 2:07 PM
Good for Blyleven. Should have been in awhile ago.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:08 PM
Good lord. What is the pretext for giving B.J. Surhoff a vote?
January 5th, 2011 at 2:09 PM
no Donny baseball? not surprising, guy didnt win shit
January 5th, 2011 at 2:09 PM
Huzzah for Robbie. What % did Morris get?
January 5th, 2011 at 2:09 PM
Oh I know why they brought up 4th and 26.. but EVERY time it’s brought up, someone has to go find the rock that FredEx is living under to ask for his thoughts.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:09 PM
Here’s all the percentages:
Roberto Alomar 523 (90.0%), Bert Blyleven 463 (79.7%), Barry Larkin 361 (62.1%), Jack Morris 311 (53.5%), Lee Smith 263 (45.3%), Jeff Bagwell 242 (41.7%), Tim Raines 218 (37.5%), Edgar Martinez 191 (32.9%), Alan Trammell 141 (24.3%), Larry Walker 118 (20.3%), Mark McGwire 115 (19.8%), Fred McGriff 104 (17.9%), Dave Parker 89 (15.3%), Don Mattingly 79 (13.6%), Dale Murphy 73 (12.6%), Rafael Palmeiro 64 (11.0%), Juan Gonzalez 30 (5.2%)
January 5th, 2011 at 2:11 PM
That’s fucking horrible. Trammell and Whitaker should’ve been in the HOF years ago.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:11 PM
I’m surprised at Robbie making it in over Larkin. I’ll be surprised again next year to discover that Larkin isn’t already in the HOF
January 5th, 2011 at 2:11 PM
I hope the mic shuts off during Blyleven’s speech.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:12 PM
You know “The People’s Champ” is only going to get even more bat shit crazy with age. By the time he retires, he’ll discuss his WR skills as if he were Jerry Rice.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:12 PM
Trammell and Whitaker
Chet Lemon
January 5th, 2011 at 2:13 PM
Class of 2012, what a weak group:
Ruben Sierra, Javy Lopez, Vinny Castilla, Bernie Williams, Tim Salmon, Brad Radke, Edgardo Alfonzo, Scott Erickson, Jeff Fassero, Joe Randa, Jeromy Burnitz, Eric Young, Brian Jordan, Bill Mueller, Matt Lawton, Jose Hernandez, Phil Nevin, Alex S. Gonzalez, Pedro Astacio, Carl “the Bible never says anything about dinosaurs” Everett, David Bell, Rick Helling, Jose Vizcaino, Terry Mulholland, Jeff Nelson, Danny Graves and Dustin Hermanson.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:13 PM
FredEx isn’t retired already?
January 5th, 2011 at 2:14 PM
I will bet he takes a shot at pitch counts and 5 man rotations during his speech.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:14 PM
I’ll start my Joe Randa HOF campaign today. Thanks for the heads up Dunlap
January 5th, 2011 at 2:15 PM
For some reason when I read this, I had the “Matt Damon” voice from Team America in my head.
/America, Fuck yeah!
//True story, that song was the closing song for my wedding reception
///I’m a bad ass
January 5th, 2011 at 2:16 PM
I would be cautious about putting in anything early on the game in Philly. The forecast keeps changing, but at some point during the weekend it appears they are going to be getting some serious wind (25 mph, with up to 40 mph gusts). Enough to affect the passing and kicking game, for sure.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:17 PM
Edgar Martinez was the guy I’d least like to face with 2 outs runners in scoring position for the whole 1990′s decade. I’d put him higher on the list than he finished in the voting.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:18 PM
I’m in the midst of my third conference call of the day…and it’s not even 3:00. I fucking hate these things.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:18 PM
Those are some awesome players. Takes me back to my card collecting and early fantasy baseball days.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:18 PM
Vizcaino, Nelson,Williams, Alfonzo all 1st balloters.
/New York’d
January 5th, 2011 at 2:20 PM
I just can’t bet on Seattle. I actually like a couple over/unders the most: Jets/Colts u52 and Eagles/Packers o38.5.
I would be cautious about putting in anything early on the game in Philly. The forecast keeps changing, but at some point during the weekend it appears they are going to be getting some serious wind (25 mph, with up to 40 mph gusts). Enough to affect the passing and kicking game, for sure.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:21 PM
Could go back to your old job
January 5th, 2011 at 2:24 PM
Very true.
January 5th, 2011 at 2:27 PM
Now getting worried as a Saints fan: RB Chris Ivory goes on IR, and RB Pierre Thomas may join him. They signed DeShawn Wynn as insurance for Ivory (/wanking motion). Who’s the insurance policy for Thomas? Some dude named Joique Bell. (//double wanking motion)
Guh…(adjusts collar)
January 5th, 2011 at 2:30 PM
jeesus, held, how manny titles do you need? relax