The difference between a #1 seed and going on the road?One of the most important plays of the NFL season came in the first matchup between Atlanta and New Orleans in the Superdome, when Mike Smith correctly predicted that Garrett Hartley would miss a short field goal in overtime, shank you very much.

Later this week, I’m going to look at the most important single plays in determining the playoff teams and seeds, and Hartley’s miss will likely figure prominently.  If Hartley had made that kick back in September, the Falcons and Saints would be even at 11-3 entering tonight’s game, the Saints would have already clinched a playoff berth, and the defending Super Bowl champions could clinch both the division and the #1 seed with a victory tonight.

Ifs, buts, candy, nuts . . . and the Saints are still in danger of missing the playoffs, and need a miracle in the form of a Carolina victory in Atlanta to have a chance at the division and home playoff games.  New Orleans needs to win this game tonight, or face an elimination game next Sunday against the Buccaneers at home.  Atlanta can still clinch the #1 seed even with a loss tonight if they can beat the team with the worst record in the NFL next week.

Much has been made of Matt Ryan’s stellar record in the Georgia Dome, and Atlanta is a perfect 6-0 at home this year.  Ryan missed last year’s game in Atlanta, a convincing win by the Saints.  If there is any team, though, that will not be intimidated by the Georgia Dome, it is these Saints.  They have an explosive passing game that translates well to success on the road, they are accustomed to playing in a dome, and this series has been one that has had minimal home field advantage (the home team in the ATL-NO series is only 43-41 all-time).

Because of Hartley’s miss, the Saints may have to win here twice to get where they want to go.  It starts tonight, with a win that would guarantee a trip to the NFC West winner.

[photo via Getty]