Matt Ryan has led the Atlanta Falcons to a 10-2 start with some clutch play, efficient performance on third down, and by being very good at avoiding negative plays.  He is currently below the league average in yards per attempt.  Such a fact would probably lead many to conclude that statheads who rely on yards per attempt couldn’t distinguish their yard marker from their abacus, which many are rumored to possess but which in actuality are usually stored away in a box in their mother’s basement.

I believe that yards per attempt is a good statistic, and if we had to pick just one thing to look at, it would probably be most useful.  However, we don’t have to pick just one.  There’s more to the Matt Ryan story.  If we consider sacks (which I think we should with quarterbacks), then Ryan has been very good at avoiding them, which already moves him up the charts.  Then, if we consider the completion percentage, well, he is more likely to make some positive plays, and when coupled with a good running game, increases the chances of third down conversions.  Then, turnovers, especially interceptions.  Ryan is very good at that too, and coupled with the lack of sacks, is not costing his team.  Finally, touchdowns, and Ryan is completing an above average percentage of his passes for scores.

What we have then, is a bit of an anomaly.  A player who is slightly below average category (albeit typically a very telling one), but above average in every other base indicator of quarterback play, and as a result, above average overall.  One of the things I like to do is look at players who are similar to these kind of combinations, so in this case, I went looking for other quarterbacks who were below the league average at yards per attempt but above average everywhere else.  The results should be encouraging to Atlanta fans.

Here are all other players since 1970 to throw at least 350 passes in a season, were below average at YPA and above average at everything else.  I ordered them in terms of player age, because I think that is important here.  The five “Advanced Passing” columns are in order: completion percentage, yards per attempt, td percentage, int percentage, and sack percentage.  A score of 100 in a category is league average, and higher is better.

Advanced Passing
PlayerYear 5AgeTm
Drew Bledsoe199624NWE10996105112113
John Elway*198424DEN10194106103113
Brett Favre199425GNB11398123111108
Tom Brady200225NWE11090111115111
Matt Ryan201025ATL10793106118117
Tommy Kramer198227MIN10491108105106
Gary Danielson197827DET11296113104108
Jim Kelly*198727BUF11694104119108
Richard Todd198128NYJ10189110124108
Drew Brees200728NOR12498103104124
Joe Ferguson198030BUF10787104105126
Bubby Brister199331PHI10288110127106
Jeff Garcia200232SFO11092101123123
Danny White198533DAL11399106104111
Brett Favre200233GNB11099114105113
Peyton Manning201034IND11599103102127
Dan Marino*199837MIA10495103106118
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
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The only other young quarterbacks who showed a similar profile to Matt Ryan are Drew Bledsoe, John Elway, Brett Favre and Tom Brady.  Those other four young QB’s averaged 10.5 wins, which suggests that just looking at yards per attempt wouldn’t tell us the whole story because of their efficiency elsewhere.  The Tom Brady year (2002) was actually the only one that he missed the playoffs, while Favre also went 9-7.  Bledsoe’s team went to the Super Bowl that season, while the Broncos went 13-3 but were upset at home in the playoffs during Elway’s similar season.
Thus, when we look at this list and many of the names on it, we see that a slightly below average yards per attempt, when coupled with efficient play everywhere else, isn’t necessarily a negative indicator for Matt Ryan.
[photo via Getty]