Baseball critics point to a game in decline. Baseball zealots retort with attendance figures. In the midst of an economic recession, baseball is drawing more fans than ever. Even with a drop off, 2009 was the game’s fifth best attended season ever.  2007 and 2008 were first and second respectively.  Bud Selig sees attendance as a primary indicator of baseball’s popularity, which, on that basis, appears to be on an upswing. As Bill Simmons points out, however, new ballparks are bloating those figures and attendance declines at parks built in the 1990s suggest that bubble will burst.

New ballparks increase attendance and revenue. Fans enjoy novelty and attractive venues. It’s why they are built.  Eight teams – Tigers, Reds, Astros, Brewers, Phillies, Pirates, Padres, and Giants – opened new stadiums between 2000 and 2004. Here are the average attendances for the five years before the new parks opened compared with the subsequent averages through 2009.

Tigers (2000) – 18,051 to 27,995
Reds (2003) – 25,153 to 25,745
Astros (2000) – 26,509 to 34,811
Brewers (2001) – 19,402 to 30,267
Phillies (2004) – 22,848 to 38,864
Pirates (2001) – 19,622 to 22,675
Padres (2004) – 28,480 to 32,319
Giants (2000) – 20,617 to 39,092

Even extending the data to ten years after the opening for some of these clubs, attendance increased by an average of 28 percent. For ballparks built from 1989 to 1999 – Indians, Orioles, White Sox, Mariners, Rangers, Blue Jays, Braves – there was a similar average uptick of 33 percent for the initial five years.

Indians (1994) – 17,197 to 40,223
Orioles (1992) – 27,221 to 44,366
White Sox (1990) – 16,813 to 30,687
Mariners (1999) – 29,713 to 39,942
Rangers (1994) – 26,771 to 35,889
Blue Jays (1989) – 30,606 to 49,287
Braves (1997) – 40,379 to 39,921

These stadiums, for the most part, swelled attendances, but the novelty wore off. Here are the average figures for those stadiums from the last five seasons, 2005 to 2009.

Indians – 40,223 to 25,451
Orioles – 44,366 to 26,918
White Sox – 30,687 to 31,530
Mariners – 39,942 to 30,620
Rangers – 35,889 to 28,545
Blue Jays – 49,297 to 27,015
Braves – 39,921 to 31,642

The average attendance at 1990s stadiums has declined 29 percent. Those clubs are averaging just six percent more fans now than before they built the new stadiums. The only club to hold the increase was the White Sox, spurred by a World Series win in 2005. The Orioles, Blue Jays and Braves are attracting fewer fans than before they built their stadiums. The Mariners and Rangers have only modest increases.

Nearly every club that built a stadium in the last 20 years saw average attendance rise. The 1990s data suggest that increase is only temporary. If the upsurge was from baseball’s burgeoning popularity and not new stadiums, the teams that kept the same stadiums from 1989 to 2009 – Angels, Red Sox, Royals, Twins, A’s, Cubs, and Dodgers – would show increases. Here are their pre-strike attendances from 1989 to 1993 compared with 2005 to 2009.

Red Sox – 30,844 to 36,693 (+16%)
Angels – 28,993 to 41368 (+30%)
Royals – 26,421 to 19,386 (-26%)
Twins – 26,800 to 27,924 (+4%)
A’s – 31,630 to 22,309 (-30%)
Cubs – 29,242 to 39,660 (+26%)
Dodgers – 36,977 to 46,200 (+20%)

Combined, the clubs without new stadiums averaged a modest Nine -percent growth, during a twenty-year period where, according to estimates, the population increased by 19.4%.  In some markets baseball’s popularity seems to have increased.  In others?  Not so much.  Attendances for clubs in large markets with nine figure payrolls such as the Red Sox (Fenway Park should almost count as a new stadium), Cubs, Angels and Dodgers have risen. Small market clubs have either held serve (Twins) or declined precipitously (A’s, Royals).

This all assumes attendance figures are genuine and not inflated by dodgy math and discount packages. I was a partial season-ticket holder at Comerica Park in the dark ages (2003 and 2004). I parked in an empty free-lot across the street. Entire sections of the upper deck were empty. Hot dog stands were left vacant.  There’s no bleeping way some of those weeknight games had 12,000-plus people. 5,000, maybe.

If attendance equals popularity, baseball is at an apex, but the growth spurt partially (if not primarily) has been caused by the novelty of the 23 new parks since 1989 (13 since 2000). Perhaps baseball will continue to fool taxpayers into believing new stadiums “create” jobs and “revitalize” more than the value of MLB clubs every 25 years, but, as new parks age, it’s more likely average attendance will decline. We may already be seeing it.

As sports leagues are increasingly discovering, television and new streams of revenue on the Internet will be the primary sources of income in the 21st Century. For baseball to thrive in that market, it must respond to its critics.  Baseball can make simple adjustments to reduce game time without compromising its competitive integrity.

[Photo via Getty]